London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Look at UJO and its recent sp movement upwards.
They know that in August WN-B will be in play. Rathlin have got it all in hand and not taking any chances.
Look at the WN site pictures on twitter.
WN - B for that production information.
That previous column of oil found when they were looking for gas was the 'icing on the cake'.
It is only a number of weeks away and those bigger Inst Investors will want more of these when they get that confirmation of its value.
Is it also time for S & S to strike another deal, as well?
You do not get anywhere, without taking calculated financial risks.
That cash in the bank is not earning enough interest.
News due .
C.
Rubey and BlackHopper. Thanks for your comments. I agree that Keddington and Fiskerton are minnows. North Kelsey and Biscathorpe aren't all that big either according to Egdon. The last two are of slightly more significance, but all of four assets need a well. So, significant cash will need to be spent, and I'm invested in UJO too! My main concern with UJO is that Egdon is the operator for all four assets and they seem to be a bit short of money,. Their market cap is only about £7 million, so I wonder about Egdon's ability to raise much more cash.
Take it out for a fraction of the cost once WN test results are leaked.
The financial deal will be sorted behind closed City doors.
The powerhouse centre is Hull. Just look at the investment going into the area.
Remember WN is just a few miles away.
RBD strategy is financial - monetise and make lots of £££££££s then move on to another window of opportunity.
Patience pays.
C.
I don't think those valuations include Cadeby Reef Tony. Over £800m with 26% COS I believe.
Snaffle, it’s a drill. Nobody knows but they must have good geological reasons to do what they are doing.
Tony, fair enough, but until further drills and EWTs are complete it is all conjecture. However, the MCap still looks somewhat low, don’t you think?
The only time I've come across it Tony, it was 50%.
Analysing the SP Angel and Shard reports shows them valuing West Newton at between £487m and £557m, thereby valuing RBD’s slice at between £272m and £312m on a NAV basis. Game changer for the SP for sure, but how does NAV convert to monetisation-surely no company would simply pay the NAV-there’s no gain in it for them. Any thoughts?
Does anyone know the estimated chances of success of either B well reference your last post black hopper?
Yes GP. I essentially agree although I like the look of ADX and I think Parta will be a valuable asset in due course. I think they will sort I-1 and at the very worst learn for I-2. They seem like a good operator. I do not know about Corallion and the US is a small deal that appears to at least wash its own face. So no problem there.
II’s appear to have invested 6:1 on WN : Parta. The Rathlin PDF linked last night shows the complexity of WN with drills in the 1980’s 6 km’is North and 14 south that did not work.
This shows that geologists feel very strongly the area hold oil and gas. But they missed! Hence the success last August and the nature of it blew people away. I think we are going to be VERY surprised by what happens to the SP if either B well hits oil. It is going to be mental. The stratigraphic traps must be quite localised in land terms but we are still talking a lot of oil and oil that is cheap as chips to extract and bring to market compared to North Sea
Fingers crossed eh!!
WN is the game changers but do not overlook Parta.
More info.
https://adx-energy.com/documents/romania-well-flow-test-operations-update-3.pdf
Remember ADX is not aware of any information or data that materially affects the original Parta estimates.
Wire line logging underway.
GAZ up but it takes time.
All you need is patience.
Just follow the smart money.....
C.
I hope you don't mind me butting in GP. My personal view is I don't rate Corallian at all. Keddington, Fiskerton and North Kelsey are minnows which could come to something with a great deal spent on them. Biscathorpe and Parta are both unknown's with great potential requiring further work but encountering problems. Wressle and California are both producers (or about to be) of similar size, so for me it all comes down to comparing West Newton.
Hi Black Hopper. I wonder what our institutional investors really think about our non-West Newton asset values. It seems to me that it might not be very much at the moment. And, in the RBD- UJO debate, how do the assets of each compare? As you say, ours are Parta, California, and Corallian. The latest news from Parta hasn't exactly set the world on fire and we've heard very little (?nothing) from California since late Feb. I assume things are still reasonably OK in the USA, but who knows how the Covid crisis has affected operations there. Looking at what some of Corallian's partners have said lately, the company looks ever more like a busted flush, particularly with respect to Colter. I'm invested here for West Newton and I agree that we are highly undervalued. However, it's worth pointing out that UJO, together with its operator Egdon, have managed to produce fairly positive news lately about most of their other assets. Could that be why our valuation seems out of step with UJO's?
BH, just wait till that oil lake starts to flow. Multi-bagger.
Rubey, you're telling me!!!
On UJO £25 million for WN relating to £84 for RBD... that then does not include Parta, or California, or Corallion!!
On that basis we should be £90-100 million... or about 1.5p.... before we find oil.
BONKERS!!!!!!
More research info Have a read.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/2fdff6nuktmij19/West-Newton-B1-Site-Construction-22-June-2020-1.pdf?dl=0
C.
You're right O2B. Another way of looking at it - I find it extraordinary that UJO have a market cap of £32m, and RBD £40m, when you consider Shard Capital assessed 80% of UJO's value to come from West Newton (as you point out 16.6%), and RBD have 56%. That means the market currently values UJO's 16.6% to be worth £25m. It should therefore follow that RBD's 56% is worth £84m. Some rebalancing seems likely before too long in my opinion.
Take a look at this from SP Angel Then work back the calculations.
http://unionjackoil.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/UJOFINAL.pdf
The SOTP Valuation gives UJO's WN (Oil and Gas) as a NAV of £92.87m and that is for just 16.6%.
RBD has 56%.
It is grossly undervalued and just waiting for news.
Remember S & S start making money at 0.9p per share.
This will go a lot higher, in my view.
Never forget to do your own research......So ignore the noise of others and trust in your own judgement.
Watch the spread widen, next.
That Parta dip was never previously priced in. MMs chanced that news to make money from the unknowing PI.
Crazy Covid times.
C.
Hi O2B@C. Can you tell me whose net asset values you are using for your comparison please? I've tried doing much the same thing but their other assets are very different, and several different brokers' research seem to assess the individual assets' risk factors quite differently.
Oh and I can't wait for the swampie's to be carried off due to breaching of anything Covid related the cops can pull on them... this is going to be farcically funny this time round with the boy's in blue having extra ammunition up their sleeves... I can hear the screams of the unwashed already LMAO
We have a deluge of PI 10%ers to clear on the way too but I would expect this to settle around .8 once we level out which is where it should have always been IMHO. News could come quicker than the past experience here if they have something to shout about and we do have the partner who is capable at working at speed and efficiency it could be a different animal going forward.
Just done a quick comparison between UJO and RBD.
70% of UJO Net Asset Value is WN ( Oil and Gas) The current Mcap of UJO is £31m.
Extrapolate that out it gives RBD's 56% of WN a current market NAV of around £72m. The Mcap of RBD is just £41m.
Crazy Covid times.
This sp is heading north soon, in my view.
Follow the money and bag a bargain.
C.
Shards valuation for UJO on WN.
http://unionjackoil.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Union-Jack-Oil-Initiation-of-coverage-6-July-2020__-Retail.pdf
They have the research staff who have checked this out.
Just watch and wait for that positive news next.
Learn from the professionals.
(Always do your research first. If you like to invest and make money).
My chart is looking good.
The only way is UP. Tweet Tweet........
Check it out.
C.