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Desmond45,
Good Evening
What's your take on Kirkham Abbey reservoirs please.
Would really help if you could share the knowledge
Many thanks
Desmond45
Well said
Just about all AIM oil/gas companies quote hydrocarbons originally in place now-a-days which is fine if you like big numbers, but it often verges on a form of misrepresentation.
211 bcf gas in place at West Newton. Historic recovery factor in KAF discoveries in Yorkshire is 12%. That’s ~25 bcf recoverable at West Newton, which is quite impressive in its own right - but only if it can be produced.
https://sp.lyellcollection.org/content/465/1/119
Persimmon, as a chartered geoscientist who has worked across several gas fields in Yorkshire over the past few decades, I can confirm you are talking out of your harris. The KA reservoir is regionally overprinted by natural fractures , creating a pathway for gas expulsion. This is why there have been many successful gas fields within the same strata around Yorkshire. This is also why WNA1 had an unexpected powerful gas kick to the surface which led them to kill the well. With the heavy duty rig and proper weighted drilling mud during operations this will not be a problem. Fracking is only usually undertaken typically in tight reservoirs to improve pore connectivity, which will not be a problem at West Newton, as proven by analogous producing wells. Acidisation or acid squeezing on the other hand is used flow the reservoir and improve production rates and is not banned. Feel free to disagree, but the proof will be in the pudding and there isn’t long to wait now. Good luck with your investment if indeed you are invested.
Something flowed to stop the last EWT, lets not get childish and wait.
Uggy...you really don't know if your that stupid?...LOL you've just answered my question
I don't know tbh, but you sure as hell don't know either you dolt.
Uggy100.....sounds like you have exposed yourself. Not a good position to be in. You are really not that stupid to believe that oil will flow without some assistance are you....are you?
Persimmon, where did you get fracking from you dimwit, as usual you are trying to put a downer in there. Your parents must be very pleased with what they produced.
Desmond
Confirmed Gas field....yes but the wholesale price of Gas has declined 52% in the last year.
Commerciality probability.....Yes
Oil shows...yes but would need to flow naturally as all fracking now is prohibited
Declining at a rate of 5% per annum from 2025 OGA figures.
Commerciality probability...Very very doubtful
Nodding donkeys at £250,000 a well........doubtful.
Omo as always and G.L.
Not long now folks.
Increased 56% stake in a CONFIRMED gas field. No matter what happens the gas is nailed on.
Oil is a (massive) bonus.
Next stop 5p.
Ciao
It has been pretty obvious for the last fortnight I'd say. Initially GP and Exploration batted back and forth with some complex sounding geological discussion and the no doubt know the subject a bit. What we, and that includes you dear reader, don't know is whether they are talking she-ite as we are not geologists. Well, I'm not.
What is clear is the sometimes subtle, and sometimes less subtle, deramping that their musings lead to. This has meant that for some time, I have completely ignored them. I'd much prefer to go with what the company have told us and I would consider the geological musings of the Rathlin team, who are in full possession of the relevant data much, much more important,
Clearly, a number of you know a lot about drilling an oil well. I don't. We don't have live feed of aerial images of the site. But what you have already seen indicates close proximity to the first level of high interest. The Kirkham Abbey. The presence of testing equipment is another exciting sign. They might already or soon be in possession of the first positive dat from this drill BUT they might not release that yet. We don't know.
So it is very exciting and big news could arrive any time. That's all we can say really. Hope all well and keeping tight hold of shares. I know I am.
Starting a new flippin' thread too... hate long threads...
Relentless subtle negativity Jack. Wear investors down. Make them want to sell. imo
Black hopper,
This is what I don’t get.
On the 05th Oct, with the Rathlin & RBD & Partners knowledge to date (05th Oct 20), gave guidance of 42 to 70 days.
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/RBD/appraisal-drilling-commences-at-west-newton-1y2wlciqg5qdfus.html
I don’t get how looking at 2015 dated documents, some draw the conclusion that “this will slow things up a bit”??
GP - Very odd thing to say. Maybe I have taken it out of context?
Jack
desperately plugging away at it aren't you GP ? Whatever....
Hi Manwell02. All this unofficial info certainly has to be taken with a lot of salt. The deviation probably won't make much difference to the ultimate result unless the well deviates off the carbonate shelf and into the salt basin, which shouldn't happen. But it's relevant for those who are waiting on the results. I'm assuming here that the B-1 well info on the OGA's website is reliable and fairly up to date, since it must have been provided by Rathlin, and probably fairly recently. The B-1 info on Twitter is much older, and seems to have been largely taken from Rathlin's 2015 application to the local council and / or the EA's 2016 approval for the B well site. I therefore think it may have been overtaken, at least in part, by Rathlin's more recent technical work. What the OGA deviation info says to me is that for every single metre of vertical depth to the reservoir(s), we will have to drill about 1.1 metres. This will slow things up a bit, perhaps by a couple of days by the time we get to TD, and it will increase the length of open hole which has to be cased off. The longer a deviated hole is open, the more difficult it can become to run the casing, although there must be ways of dealing with this. I don't know if the well site images on Twitter are up to date or reliable but, if they are, they don't seem to have run the 9 5/8”casing yet.
Jack...don't forget the operative word here is 'expected'.
I think we have deviated slightly from confirmed plan.
We already know that “The steel conductor casing was set at a depth of 74 meters in the Cretaceous chalk and cemented in place.”
We also know “The borehole will be drilled to a depth of approximately 2,000 metres, with completion expected to take six to ten weeks” (42 to 70 Days) from spud date on 05th Oct 20.
So, Day 23…………
I don’t think the overall objectives of the WNB-1 well have changed:
“· To evaluate the extent of the hydrocarbon accumulations found in the Kirkham Abbey formation by the WNA-2 well in June 2019
· To test the reservoir properties of the deeper Cadeby formation which, if found to be hydrocarbon bearing, could add significantly to the value of the West Newton field”
Far too early to guess current depth or casing progress, if any.
In my own opinion, the SP is low considering the knowledge gained in WNA-1 / WNA-2 and the cash raised off the back of the information gained from those wells.
With a 56% interest, we watch and wait............
Jack
Hey GP, tbh I’ll take all the data with a pinch of salt as not sure if they’re from the official programme. Also if the well is 15,20 or 25 degrees inclination it’s not gonna make any difference to us as investors. Just a difference from MD vs TVD. Again using the schematic on Twitter (still unsure if an official document) the difference between the two is 43m.
Still no casing run as from the pics on Twitter (are they up to date, who knows)
Hey GP, Without actually seeing the official well path I will take all of the numbers with a pinch of salt. We know it’s not a horizontal well, so 15, 20 or 25 degrees is not going to make any difference to us as investors. It will only make a difference in MD vs TVD. If you look at the schematic the difference is 43m.
Also just seen latest pics & casing still on racks.
There's some potentially useful information about the B-1 well on LSE’s ADVFN board. It was apparently taken from the OGA’s website for what they call Well L46/10- 2. In summary it statesthat B-1 is to be a deviated well with a planned TD at 2,058 metres below sea level, and at 2,316 metres measured depth below the rig floor, which is at 19.6m above sea level. From these figures you can estimate that the average deviation for the well will be slightly more than 26 degrees from the surface location, and that the offset to TD will be about 1,020 metres. This seems to be quite a lot, and they didn’t say in which direction the well was to be deviated. What do you think Manwell?
According to the schematic on Twitter they are building 2degrees/30m to 15.59 degrees.
Rubey. Thanks, that's very helpful, and other views are welcome too please. Rathlin's seeing the cement returns would obviously solve my "volumetric issue". Personally speaking, I think they may be casing or cementing round about now, but can we be sure from what's been posted to date? I still think the jury is out on whether B-1 is a vertical or a deviated well. Rathlin might possibly wish to gather geological information about the KA reservoir as far away from the A site as possible. They have also said they will be drilling the Cadeby at its most optimal location, wherever that is. We can't assume it's directly below the B-site as its location was planned and agreed some years ago, I think in 2015/16.
Yes agree with those comments from ddboy. When we refer to vertical it will be slightly deviated as no well is straight down. However the deviation won’t be a lot.
With regards to the log this can be done to work out hole size but only in exceptional circumstances of hole wash out, I’m talking greater than 40% of what it should be. Other than that they would just pump excess until get returns at surface.
GP, from UJO bb, ddboy. Maybe Manwell would have a view on this?
'It would be normal procedure to drill the vertical well first and appraise the results which would then determine if a directional well was appropriate or necessary.
A log is not normally needed to work out cement volumes to set a casing string.
There are formulae used and an excess is available to be pumped and they keep pumping until they get returns showing the displaced volumes.Standard procedure.
ddboy'
Hi Rubey. The answer to all this lies in whether they have run the 9 5/8” casing to the top of the Zechstein yet. If they haven't, they probably have about 1,000 metres of open hole still to case which won't be an exact cylinder due to the spalling of rock fragments from the sides of the hole while drilling, hence you can't do a simple mathematical calculation to determine the volume of cement required, you will need a caliper log to measure the volume. On the other hand, if they have already set the casing and ae drilling ahead today, they will still have about 10 days to TD and final logging. I think they should be casing about now, but I would still like to see some drone footage so we can be sure.