We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Tks GP, I have to admit I'm none the wiser lol. I guess time will tell.
Hi Uggy100. I can't disagree when you say "there have been lots of tests on the core samples taken from WN & Cadeby ...... but they don't know what the oil API is". It's really hard to give you a sensible answer as I don't have more info than most other PIs, so what I can add is only my speculation. However, Rathlin seem to have taken both a Cadeby core in the A-1well and a Kirkham Abbey core in the A-2 well, as far as I can see, and they've now had more than enough time by now to do a raft of tests. These would presumably have included the recovery and testing of any liquid hydrocarbons within the two cores, so they must presumably have some info about the oil and / or condensate in at least the A-2 well. Small amounts of liquids might possibly have been produced during the previous testing of A-2 but, if they have a sample of it, they haven't commented on it yet, so maybe there wasn't any, or maybe the sample was very small and / or contaminated in some way. Of course, Rathlin might still be unsure if it's black oil or a much lighter condensate even now because the test was terminated early . Significant amounts of either oil or condensate in WN would be great, of course. Rathlin also have the A-2 core from which presumably liquids could have been recovered, even if the well test samples weren't up to much. I'll try to turn to Biscathorpe now: Egdon and UJO's oil API estimate for the Dinantian seems to have been based mainly on oil shows seen in the drill cuttings but it was presumably assisted by the logs. The cuttings samples were later analysed in much more detail by the consultant company APT, who seem to have pulled something of a rabbit out of the hat. That's IMO of course. But to say they haven't found the reservoir yet isn't quite right. They didn't find the Westphalian Sandstone reservoir at Bisc-2, and it was very thin in Bisc-1, but there's a very decent oil column in the Dinantian, aka Carboniferous Limestone. This is not generally regarded as a fabulous reservoir in the East Midlands Basin but perhaps Biscathorpe is one of the few places where it might turn up trumps.
I agree. DB at UJO is always giving interviews but S&S don’t seem to give half as many...........and there are two of them! I bet they’re earning twice as much each as DB.
Thanks for clarifying GP.
I suspect interest is moving from UJO to RBD again today. Be nice to get a bit of PR from RBD to get more of a boost.
Correct GP, my $10 estimate was based on recoverables not OIIP.
Hi Rubey. If Ellerby and Spring Hill turn into discoveries at some future date, then the whole of PEDL 183, based on Deloitte's CPR figures , could easily be as big as Wytch Farm. The few published maps suggest that they are three separate, but presumably related, structures. So I'm guessing there could possibly be three decent sized fields, rather than just one humongous one that stretched all the way to the coast
Many thanks. That's very helpful.
Hi Phoebus. For $/bbl or s/Mcf it really depends on just what figures you are looking for. If you want to know what the licence is worth right now, with the two prospects near to WN still unexplored, WN itself only half appraised (and obviously undeveloped) I might be tempted to use only $1.00 per boe at such an early stage, especially as we've not yet seen a flow rate. If it's a value for developed onshore hydrocarbons you want, then the "full cycle economics" that UJO have used for Biscathorpe would be a good place to start. You could use today's $45 oil price less their $18 full cycle cost. However, you couldn't just use the $27 difference as your value, as the oil and gas will be produced over many years. So you would have to discount the future cash flow. Still, as a rough guess, I reckon you could use Uggy100's $10 / bbl for WN's recoverable reserves, but I would suggest not NOT for the oil and / or condensate in place.
Phoebus
Re your earlier post on the value per bbl. I would think a price of around $10 is a realistic figure especially as it's onshore & next door to existing infrastructure. Anyway a bit more work to do before we can get to that stage.
GP, as a Geo with knowledge of the oil industry I wonder if you could answer a question I've been mulling over for quite some time.
As DB has said on a few occasions there have been lot's of tests on the core samples taken from WN (& Cadeby too I think) They don't know what the api of the oil is ? UJO have stated the api for the hydrocarbons from basic studies at Biscathorpe & they haven't even found the reservoir yet ??????
Rubey, in a sense I think you are correct, although I believe WF is accessed via deviated wells from onshore.
Morning GP.
I understood that the PEDL183 licence area hadn't been fully explored, with the Ellerby and Spring Hill prospects in addition to West Newton, and there is a question of whether the Cadeby could extend to the coast and beyond. Most of Wytch Farm oil field is actually offshore from what I understand.
In view of this, assuming my understanding is correct, could what we've got not end up being the biggest find ever in the UK?
Gotcha. Excellent info there GP as regards RFs. Much appreciated. I know it's all very much case specific, but do you have any advise on good $/B, $/BCF figures to use for basic valuations rather than just a flat $5/BOE? Regards.
Hi Phoebus. I was actually responding to Rubey's comment at 21.35 yesterday where he said:
"Phoebus, Cadeby looks pretty exciting, and could well make this the biggest find EVER in the UK" So someone has said it, and he's not the first. I've previously worked on Wytch Farm, so I thought it might be helpful to provide the WF numbers for comparison. Also, may I suggest that your recovery factors might be a bit optimistic for a Zechstein carbonate reservoir. 30% would be about right, IMHO, for a typical onshore (Westphalian) sandstone. I've been assuming 25% for the liquids and 75% for the gas in the Kirkham Abbey, and it would probably be similar for the Cadeby if the B-1 well works at that level too. ATB.
Nobody is saying it will be as big as the masssive Wytch Farm, but it could well be the second biggest ever onshore UK. P50 recoverable for Cadeby is 79.1 MMB and Kirkham is 146.40 MMB P50 OIIP plus 211.50 BCF GIIP. Assuming 30% recovery factor for oil and 80% for gas this gives a total P50 recoverable for the two intervals of 151.12 MMBOE P50 recoverable. That's about 60% of your 250 MMB figure for Wytch Farm. Not as big, but utterly massive for onshore UK none the less. No wonder RBD have increased their share of the licence. RBD's net share is 84.63 MMBOE, which at $5 per MMOE equates to a SP of 4.77p or 7.5x the current SP. Given it's onshore, that is probably too low a valuation.
I'll be very surprised if what we may find in the Cadeby, plus the oil and gas we already know to exist within the Kirkham Abbey, will come close to Wytch Farm. Just for the record, there the total WF oil in place was reported to be more than 1,250 million barrels and the recoverable oil was over 250 million barrels from all three reservoirs, including the very small Frome Clay Limestone reservoir. Still, I'd be delighted to be proved wrong.
Sorry, missed the final word off (distracted by egg, chips and bacon), ...will.
I'm wondering if there was a move from UJO to RBD today. Lots of late UJO sells, and lots of late RBD buys. Not that it makes a blind bit of difference to the end result of course. We'll all make a good profit. It's just that RBD shareholders will make 3 times the profit UJO shareholders will make ; ) Each to their own.
Phoebus, Cadeby looks pretty exciting, and could well make this the biggest find EVER in the UK. But if it's not commercial I have no doubt the success of Kirkham Abbey. IMO
As a reminder the signs are good for the deeper Cadeby oil target. 'The well also encountered hydrocarbon shows within the deeper Cadeby formation, a secondary target. The intersection is consistent with the West Newton A-1 well from which an oil saturated core was recovered. This is highly encouraging, and the formation is planned to be intersected in the future from the West Newton-B well location, where optimal reservoir development is expected, and planning permission is already in place.'
F. I. N. G. E. R. S. C R. O. S. S. E. D
Remember the low risk appraisal of the WN mega discovery comes before the deeper Cadeby target, so we are odds on for super drill results first.
On last WN results UJO was 0.38p and is now 0.30p, RBD was 1.75p and is now 0.63p. 3.5x the leverage. It's a no brainer.
Given that DELT transaction has been kicked into touch buying RBD at this SP offer 3.5 times the exposure to West Newton per £ of investment compared to investing in UJO. If you are piling into UJO for WN you should be buying the hind legs off here. STRONG BUY