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The week has ended on a very small bit of upward SP pressure after a few stagnant weeks. Still no sign of you know who's 1p prediction.
I'm off to Belek tomorrow for a week golfing with the lads, so will give QFI a miss until 27th. Hopefully come back to some progress and a lot of good news before the end of March!
HF14
Stephen Byles is the thinker behind Utah
Not JM
If there is a product after the drills are ever given approval
Then it won’t any longer be SB’s wishful thinking!
Well here's hoping that things are in place for the half yearly results with regards Morocco ( I'm still doubtful on Morocco completely) and MSC with regards the Leandra heading to dry Dock and the desire by fuel producers to solve 5he chicken & egg problem.
If its more can kicking then...... well !!.
AKHM
Yes I understand the SP would rise substantially in your scenario but still to no where near it's ultimate potential should the whole market swiftly move to MSAR/BioMSAR.
Vince
Agreed, they did dissolve the alliance but that was I think after the sale of Seago Istanbul. I know if I was in the position that Maersk was at the time of the sale I would want to keep my options open by negotiating a quid pro quo access to the LONO test results achieved by MSC.
Prep H
....yeh but this bloke in the pub did he tell you what Soren is running it on? BioMSAR?
I agree Vince, especially at the successful trial stage. They may want to muscle in before contracts agreed though as these could be very lucrative and I'm sure a big player, (like Shell) would be able to negotiate a much better contract with MSC than Quadrise ever could!
Until Msar or BioMsar is proved in a trial and contracts with MSC secured i don't see it Wonga.
We are still doing the talky talky explore potential stuff.
"Equally my fear in this scenario is that we would quickly get bought out by (Shell?) at a fraction of the true value. Thoughts anyone?"
For Shell, or anyone else for that matter to buy out Quadrise they would need to offer a price tempting enough to secure over 50% of the shares. I don't think there's any way that would happen while the SP is still in single penny figures.
If the offer is tempting enough, it might however be the exit many of us LTSHs have been looking for.
Toby, probably just as likely that MSC bought it to rip the motor out and fit it in Soren Skou's Mini coupled to a centre branch manifold and an RC40 straight through exhaust, he's got minifin brake drums and red corbeau seats too .
..Some bloke in a pub told me and I'm sticking to it
I hardly think so Toby, since MSC and Maersk have dissolved their alliance just recently.
I think someone mentioned this before but if the LONO was granted and MSC were going to use the fuel then the share price would react accordingly. Following this, the second a big company looked to buyout the company the share price would go bonkers on rumour alone. The amount they would need to pay would reflect this. Not sure if this is correct but would like to think so.
I'm not sure if this has been discussed previously but is it likely that when Maersk agreed to sell the Seago Istanbul (now MSC Leandra) that there is a side agreement to share the performance figures with Maersk and if favourable to jointly switch to MSAR/BioMSAR. I'm speculating I know but given that Maersk has already done a partial U turn on fitting of scrubbers perhaps they could be about to do the full U turn based on good LONO results. If MSC and Maersk were to jointly go to market advocating either MSAR or BioMSAR then the momentum would be unstoppable. Equally my fear in this scenario is that we would quickly get bought out by (Shell?) at a fraction of the true value. Thoughts anyone?
I get the impression Utah is just wishful thinking by JM. Nothing material has happened for over 2 years.
https://shipandbunker.com/news/world/231837-green-shipping-corridor-planned-between-california-and-japan
If Utah ever gets its act together and we can bunker low sulphur Msar in LA this is a perfect opportunity.
In the time its taken to get this far for testing BioMsar first, we could have tested Msar and obtained a full LONO with or without a scrubber. With 1300 hrs behind it, they know there are no outlying problems with MSAR.
But they still like to burn that HFO despite the conferences,
Seminars and green rhetoric.
Clearly entering a new rampy phase Brian/McHaggis/saville row/Jersey Royal.
JM has told us many times that QFI are still in contact with Maersk, so the following part of the Edison note bodes well for Maersk uptake once MSC have spent time and money getting MSAR and bioMSAR commercial.
"Maersk decided not to adopt MSAR because the trial had been part of a programme in which Maersk was to meet tightened IMO regulations on sulphur emissions by installing scrubbers for removing sulphur oxides on the majority of its fleet. Maersk planned to offset the cost of installation (estimated at around $2m per large vessel) from the cost savings arising from replacing HFO with MSAR. Instead, Maersk decided to meet the IMO regulations by using very low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO), which is more expensive than standard HFO. It is possible that the change in strategy was because the IMO had decided to bring forward implementation of the low sulphur legislation from 2025 to 2020, requiring a massive investment in scrubbers over a much-shortened timescale, requiring many vessels to be taken out of service simultaneously for scrubber fitting. More recently Maersk has changed its stance on scrubbers, with 35% of its fleet equipped with the technology according to a report from Alphaliner published in January 2022."
https://shipandbunker.com/news/world/930776-worlds-largest-shipping-firm-signs-five-year-partnership-deal-with-gcmd
This is why I thought MSC would use MSAR for freight and BioMSAR for cruise ships
"While adoption of green methanol or ammonia would result in emissions reductions of 81% and 83% respectively, Quadrise notes that around 50MW of renewable generation capacity would be required per vessel, which is equivalent to 70-80 wind turbines or solar panels covering an area of around 4km2. There would therefore need to be substantial investment in additional renewable generation capacity for widespread adoption across the global shipping fleet to be viable."
https://www.edisongroup.com/research/key-role-in-transitioning-to-net-zero/31706/
As I said, bioMSAR competes with Biofuel. As per the Edison note of November 2022:
"Quadrise calculates that bioMSAR generates savings of 10-15% compared with biofuel for the same reduction in CO2 emissions."
https://www.edisongroup.com/research/key-role-in-transitioning-to-net-zero/31706/
And as I said in my previous post:
Biodiesel is multiples of the price of HFO and VLSFO by the looks of these:
https://www.neste.com/investors/market-data/biodiesel-prices-sme-fame#ffb486b1
https://shipandbunker.com/prices#IFO380
From a quick look at the meanings, FAME is Biodiesel from recycled oils and fats. RME is Biodiesel from crops like Rapeseed. FAME is best suited to cold climates, so maybe transcontinental shipping would more likely use RME?
I'll leave you to work out the savings afforded by bioMSAR, 10-15% of Biodiesel cost, around 8 barrels per tonne.
SR
If you click on the link you'll see it's all perfectly valid, as it's from Edison Research (they do speak to the company before writing their notes) and is dated 28 November 2022.
Some think they know, based on their research, who the Morocco client is. Edison say they are "a chemicals and mining group in Morocco".
'3. My gut feeling is that QFI is dealing with a low-level technical department and probably the top-level management has no idea who QFI is. If you look at who's on BoD at OCP it's like looking at the Moroccan Government (quite a few ministers).'
'
Aussie...JM has stated they are dealing with the top management/execs of the Morocco client.
SR,
1. The article was written in Nov. '22 but one would should be weary of what Edison say about QFI, they're paid to say nice things.
2. It is assumed to be OCP. About a year ago QFI bungled up and in one of their fancy PowerPoint presentations uploaded they had OCP on it. I raised this on the forum as being the first time for QFI to acknowledge OCP but within hours the image was Photoshop'ed and OCP disappeared
3. My gut feeling is that QFI is dealing with a low-level technical department and probably the top-level management has no idea who QFI is. If you look at who's on BoD at OCP it's like looking at the Moroccan Government (quite a few ministers).
a.
"But this 'Moroccan project' smelled funny from day one"
Disagree, but we all have different noses. For me, Utah smelled funny from day one.
When was this article written?
Do we (actually) know who the Moroccan company is?
I'm incredibly wary about assumptions, however well taken, that haven't been actually announced by RNS. I've spent the last decade being stung by this.
Let's not put the cart before the horse:
first of all the 'mystery group' has to say 'yes, I want your fuel'
But this 'Moroccan project' smelled funny from day one so I wouldn't be surprised if our Dear Leader will tell us that the 'mystery group' chose a different path for de-carbonization.
I can almost have a small bet on this.
a.