The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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Back of a fag packet calculation
when the 10000 bopd Utah plant in operation then with a 13.5% licence fee on revenue then I think that's the minimum for breakeven for QFI
basis of the calc is :- Greenfield Revenue @ 10000 bopd * margin for Greenfield = pretax profit for Greenfield
US$ 160,000,000 * 30% = US$ 48,000,000
(source TomCo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-WMafybrgbs )
= £ 37,000,000
QFI annual loss £ 5,000,000
5/37 = 13.5% of greenfield pre tax profit
assuming with uplift due to msar is 30% (a big if, perhaps someone can input something more accurate) then the licence fee would have to be (10/3) *13.5% = 45% of the uplift
Its good news on Morocco, but in the context of past events , mainly outside the BOD's control, it is understandable that investors remain sceptical until a commercial deal is signed. In my opinion, the first commercial deal will be Utah and pace of progress at Ashpalt Ridge with respect to the POSP is a warming sight. I would hope that the bolt on of the MSAR unit will be done with some alacrity and a commerical deal even for the 500 bopd plant be signed, but better still for the 2 x 5000 bopd plants.
Personally I think that because of all of the previous false dawns. We need to see something concrete now, not just trials etc. A contract a revenues is whats needed. And has been for some time. Still, we seem to be getting there....
Very strange market really expected the SP to move a little north after the RNS
Give M/K a ring keep on until you get through to him
Another year drifts past and yet more trials. Not happy at all with that RNS!!
A positive rns. The last statement by Mike seems telling. He seems to believe that as long as things go to plan this is a slam dunk for commercial contracts and revenue. Market however still needs to see this happening before there is a decent price increase. Feels like I will have to wait till mid/late 2021 before we have a significant positive price move.