The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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BP and I think I was about 1.60 by Christmas. 10 years later............
Some detail on Ecuadorean government's initiative to privatise/concession the Esmeraldas refinery. Use Chrome and the Google Translate feature to translate the entire document; the translation is good enough to fully understand it. Thanks to ForFoxSake on The QFI Shareholders' Forums for posting it.
https://www.primicias.ec/noticias/economia/ecuador-decidido-concesionar-sus-refinerias-vender-termogas-machala/
Good work foxm. Worth noting (and you elude to) that they approached Quadrise, which certainly does not guarantee a deal, but shows real engagement in our solution if nothing else. Add to that the compelling tech/economic study that Quadrise HAS delivered a few months ago and we certainly have a case to be hopeful for.
I was thinking that 40,000 barrels of HFO a day from a 110,000 bpd refinery sounded too much, 36% of output, but it is probably correct. I found this fairly recent paper talking about a new refinery in Ecuador, Figure 1 (a) shows HFO currently makes up 39.8% of refinery output in Ecuador. Ouch, that's a hell of a lot. No wonder they want to use MSAR.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/333618385_Evaluation_of_the_socio_economic_impacts_in_Ecuador_due_to_refinery_matrix_change_using_General_Equilibrium_Model
Mexico has 10 times more potential than Ecuador. If we land Mexico, we're there, in dreamland. It tops KSA for me now, because they are both similar size, 20 - 25 million tons a year, but Mexico would be with Freepoint, so Tolling Model, so much more lucrative. If we ever did get MSAR rolled out in KSA, it would almost certainly be in License mode.
I spotted this yesterday when I was reading the 2019 AGM presentation -
REDLINER
• Agency agreement June 2019 excellent access to refinery sector.
• Several meetings held in 2H 2019 most recently November 2019.
• Significant opportunity to assist with improvements to constrained refinery output and distillate shortages.
• Political drivers and affordability will be critical to 2020 engagement.
Well the political drivers couldn't have gone any better for us in the last 6 months. It has panned out absolutely perfectly, Jason couldn't have written the script better himself.
Kurlyboy I think is was me that mentioned £5.00 years ago. lol you never never never know.
You mentioned 50p:) that's my goal
Just one signing should do it
In the good old days people mentioned & 1£ to £3 but someone insisted it would get to £5.....
I wonder if he is still with us. Its been a long road
My gut feeling it will be Morocco that takes the lead
Kurly
I've been trying to see if I could get any info on what the potential size of an Esmeraldas refinery contract would be. I was thinking it might only be a couple of MMUs, but I was wrong, it might be significantly larger.
This graph -
https://www.indexmundi.com/energy/?country=ec&product=residual-fuel-oil&graph=production
shows HFO production in Ecuador of about 60,000 - 66,000 barrels a day, although the figures only go up to 2012.
Ecuador's 3 refineries have 175,000 bopd capacity, of which Esmeraldas makes up almost two thirds, 110,000 bopd. Two thirds of the total HFO production would be about 40,000 barrels a day.
From this article in February 2020, the HFO production seems to be at roughly the same level -
https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2064548-ecuador-to-unleash-more-spot-crude-fuel-oil
Six HFO cargoes (one spot market, five to China) a month, 6 x 190,000 barrels / 30 days = 38,000 barrels a day.
It is interesting that the China contracts expire in October 2020. Given they are now looking at upgrading Esmeraldas instead of closing it, I presume the new refinery with coking capacity won't be getting built.
The last presentation which Mike and Jason did gave figures for 2 MMUs, 10,000 BPD (600,000 tpa).
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YHvLWMzZ9hw&t=13m47s
We might potentially need 4 of these (8 MMUs) to replace the 40,000 barrels of HFO with MSAR. Since this project will be run with Freepoint, it will be the Tolling Model, so a potential margin of $48-$52m a year!! That should easily equate to a share price of about 50p :-)
That would be a very nice first contract to land, sod Morocco, and personally I think it's close to being in the bag. We know that Mike said the techno-economic study was ready to be sent to the client in mid-May, then less than 2 months later the Ecuador president issues a decree approving the “exceptional” involvement of the private sector in the Esmeraldas refinery. From the wording in the press releases, it has to be related to MSAR. If the techno-economic study wasn't accepted, why issue a presidential decree? Could we possibly get a bigger clue? Fingers crossed the i's are currently being dotted , the t's crossed, and we might finally get our long-awaited first commercial contract in the next month or so.