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We thank goodness that you are not running the company. Spend over £40m on research, register global patents, regulatory approvals in many countries of the world and then sell it for about £42m before it’s actually got on its feet.
Should BH offer 2p a share then I'd be happy with that.
I think you are echoing market sentiment in those views.
We know the order size would be a step change over what has been produced before, with the obvious funding requirement, which could be met in several ways.
We know that the margin on existing sales will be much higher, but we don't know how much extra cost of servicing demand is. Profit now? Not sure myself.
We know that gut health is a massive market, but we don't know what early commercialisation means, especially given the glacial pace of developments to date.
Those are known unknowns, will any other unknown unknowns appear? We didn't see the other IP novelties coming. What we need is Fruitflow disappearing down gullets worldwide, and lots of it.
I still have a few concerns that float around my head.
1) how are PXS funding the production costs for major orders? They are probably going to need to raise funds for it. This could dampen otherwise positive news on orders.
2) IF may not give us good detail about orders, just fluffy nonsense like ‘transformational orders’. Orders after Sept will be reported in the full year results at the end of next Septembers, so we may not get the full picture until then.
3) When we receive transformational orders from China, we will not know the profit margin, so will need to wait until Sept next year to understand that too. PXS didn’t tell us that the DSM deal was rubbish, so we could wait a year to find out that the BH deal is rubbish too. I don’t think it will be, as PXS had other options at the time, so were in a better negotiating position. Time will tell.
4) DSM continue to be a bit rubbish and don’t make progress with FF for gut health. I’ve not seen anything coming out of DSM yet and we have no idea what they are actually doing. What does early commercialisation actually mean?
Saying all that, I’m still thinking of buying some more on Monday, because whatever happens PXS will move into profit and remain in profit with a massive growth potential and that will eventually be reflected in the share price.
Not sure how much the price will rise on the China news. There are no forecasts available at present. Just 'multiple of current sales values', which to an outsider (not us) means 'multiple' of a £250k - £300k 'revenue' that we previously received from DSM. People breezing over the company info may not get excited by that, understandably. Only people that follow PXS have an understanding of what's going on.
However, we should have a series of positive news now.
- Sept 29th - End of year results for 22/23 - expecting revenue increase (post lockdown boost H2 + Feb/March orders)
- Company funding update
- SAMR approval - we'll need to be notified rather quickly (whenever it be, but should be coming any time).
- BH Orders - this may be with SAMR notification, but may not be.
Dec 29th - Half year results - April to Sept (6 months full revenue from old DSM customers)
We may also get news around DSM and their 'truly global' companies.
By December we should have a much clearer picture than we do now and hopefully that will be reduce the risk of the shares and increase the price.
Would they really reject the application after all this ..!!!!
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【被看好的高景气行业,喜提利好新政策】国家市场监管总局发布新规,放开保健食品新功能申报。当然,申请一个新功能也不是那么容易的事。新规强调,新功能的评价指标及判定标准应科学、明确、可行,并经过验证评价。首个提交申请的,是膳食营养补充剂行业龙头汤臣倍健。以“轻络素”为突破口,汤臣倍健历时8年研究,最终递交了“有助于维持正常的血小板聚集功能,有益于血流健康”这一新功能申报, 其“科学营养”战略布局再进一步。 极目新闻的微博视频
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Jímù xīnwén 23-8-31 12:01 Láizì wēi bó shìpín hào guānzhù [bèi kànhǎo de gāo jǐngqì hángyè, xǐ tí lìhǎo xīn zhèngcè] guójiā shìchǎng jiānguǎn zǒngjú fābù xīn guī, fàng kāi bǎojiàn shípǐn xīn gōngnéng shēnbào. Dāngrán, shēnqǐng yīgè xīn gōngnéng yě bùshì nàme róngyì de shì. Xīn guī qiángdiào, xīn gōngnéng de píngjià zhǐbiāo jí pàndìng biāozhǔn yīng kēxué, míngquè, kěxíng, bìng jīngguò yànzhèng píngjià. Shǒu gè tíjiāo shēnqǐng de, shì shànshí yíngyǎng bǔchōng jì hángyè lóngtóu tāng chén bèijiàn. Yǐ “qīng luò sù” wèi túpòkǒu, tāng chén bèijiàn lìshí 8 nián yánjiū, zuìzhōng dìjiāole “yǒu zhù yú wéichí zhèngcháng de xuèxiǎobǎn jùjí gōngnéng, yǒuyì yú xuè liú jiànkāng” zhè yī xīn gōngnéng shēnbào, qí “kēxué yíngyǎng” zhànlüè bùjú zài jìnyībù. Jímù xīnwén de wéi bó shìpín
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Jimu News
23-8-31 12:01
From Weibo video account
focus on
[An optimistic industry with high prosperity, welcomes new favorable policies] The State Administration for Market Regulation has issued new regulations to liberalize the application for new functions of health food. Of course, applying for a new feature is not that easy. The new regulations emphasize that the evaluation indicators and criteria for new functions should be scientific, clear, feasible, and have been verified and evaluated. The first one to submit an application was BY-HEALTH, the leader in the dietary supplement industry. Taking "Qingluosin" as a breakthrough point, By-Health spent 8 years researching and finally submitted the application for a new function that "helps maintain normal platelet aggregation function and is beneficial to blood flow health", and its "scientific nutrition" strategic layout Go one step further. Jimu News’ Weibo video(Edited)Restore original
When that happens I predict 4p within 2 days .
Like I said when BH release concrete plans to put a lot of FF on the shelves . The market is unimpressed ATM.
Anyone have any ideas
Looks more like a correction to me.
Someone with fat fingers perhaps????
31-Aug-23 10:36:34 0.603 -10,671,737 Unknown* -64.35k O
If that was a buy then why no rise ? clever MMs ? The BB is as quiet as ever , just off the radar these days .
And DSM definitely haven't left the scene.
Everhopeful, exclusivity means only By-Health will be able to use the health function claim that they applied for for a period of 5 years.
How that will work with CBEC I have no idea but they wont have Blue Cap anyway.
Anyway the rush aint on , it was another jam tomorrow release. When BH layout some substantial FF on shelves plans this will motor . As someone suggested I cant understand why BH haven't made a move on PXS since PXS is in a distressed state barely self sustaining. DSM leaving the scene is another puzzle.
Thanks Gixer re $s.
BH exclusive means ( I SUPPOSE ) only imports will be competition which will be more costly. So BH are confident on getting their money back and some imo. But will they be ramping up sales over time with word of mouth soak in slowly approach or will they be spending lots on advertising?
Boring Bernie what do you think?
Agree with that Kievs, folks still wary of catching a crab.
However, the fact that we are many months in to running the supply of Fruitflow offers some hope of self sufficiency on normal operations, with the possibility of external funding for a large export order. May be significant. I still think a cash call is likely, and it looks like the market thinks that too. As always, progress is at glacial pace.
All the sells yesterday at 0.65 were buys. As this was being quoted to me all day yesterday. Yes really surprised the SP is not back above 0.8. I guess its still the funding issue holding us back
I suspect that Gixer might be right with his assessment about timescales.
I also suspect that, given the length of time that this process has taken, and the fact that the original decision to allow the new health claims was made in June, BH will already have a list of products to release based on Fruitflow as the active ingredient. I further suspect that they will also have the marketing campaigns ready and waiting to roll out.
The question in my mind is whether they have sufficient quantities of FF to substantiate such a roll out. Surely, Provexis have been asked to provide significant supplies of FF already BUT, if this is true, surely this would have triggered a requirement for funding to either purchase the remaining DSM stockpile or to ramp up the new production runs. However, there has been no news on funding since the RNS in April. I am confused about this.
However it represents a significant milestone for the Company and as such I am slightly surprised by the lack of movement in the share price and certainly surprised to see some fairly chunky sells.
Good thing about By-Health being "the first to eat crabs" with the application for the "new function declaration and product registration application is that there is obviously no backlog.
Both the new function health claim (helping maintain normal platelet aggregation function and benefit blood flow health) and the registration for products (Blue Cap) are conducted in a joint review and done simultaneously, hopefully jumping the queue over other Blue Cap registrations that maybe waiting for approval.
Still got no idea how long the whole process will take but IMO it will be quicker than some think.
Good point Gix, and also being years ahead of the rest.
Dr H,
Very good post. Fully agreed with you. 18P takeover offer from BH please.
Not forgetting the 5 year exclusivity on the health claim.
Keep in mind that approval will be forthcoming. Have a look at the approved ingredients list and associated health claims available in China, it is very limited. Then look at what is currently available in the heart health, for example by BH as being the market leader. Consider what it would mean for a new scientifically substantiated ingredient in that category. Then consider that BH say that FF will be used as a main ingredient for their heart health platform, and a large number of multi-national companies have agreed to commercialise FF via their distribution channel. Then consider that platelet aggregation is a risk factor highlighted in China 2030 and BH are addressing that. Then consider the state support that brings. Then consider the partnerships that BH have made to push it to the Chinese population. It’s still going to take time, but it’s looking good to me. But WTFDIK.