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kievsky, its unlikely but you never know.
wellsite, "why wouldn’t BH have gone for bp bluecap"
I am not saying they haven't gone for blue cap for bp just that the RNS isn't clear in saying if they have or not.
It's academic anyway as the invisible man will probably use invisible ink so the shareholders will be in the dark as usual!!
Kievs
I will try
WS
CB, you ask "why would DSM give a tinkers about Provexis in new negotiations".
The answer is that Provexis own the IP, so, if DSM and Provexis can't negogiate a new deal, then DSM are only able to see Fruitflow to their existing customers, which means any new customers in the pipeline, are off-limits. DSM have invested a lot of time and money into Fruitflow, and they won't want to throw that away. So they'll want to do a deal. Plainly, they'll want that deal to be good for them, so they won't be throwing money at us for the sake of it, but I'd say it's very likely that a deal gets done which suits both parties.
I think it's extremely unlikely that we'll go it alone on Fruitflow,. As Alf says, that would be a big change of the business model and I doubt there's an appetite for investors to back that, but you never know.
In retrospect, I think the main reason for raising a million was as much to do with seeing us through to breakeven / profitability as it was to do with investng in FF+
FY 2021/22 isn't going to be that year, 2022/23 might be, but, to me anyway, it's looking like 2023/24 is a decent bet for it. Others will doubtless disagree.
BB
Well my train tickets are booked. Gixer/W$ are you joining me. Maybe a a pint after the AGM to
Gixer, I admire your tenacity and optimism in the face of indisputable evidence to the contrary. If (and it's a big if) revenues flow from China it could be a further 3/4 years before this company breaks even. That could mean a possible 15 years since DSM became the dominant partner and the company was to expect "transformational" developments. It just didn't happen and the momentum was lost due to inept management and no vision. I ask myself, why would DSM give a tinkers about Provexis in new negotiations, when they have clearly failed thus far to gain traction? A great product which has been let down by the people entrusted to sell it to the world IMO.
gixer
why wouldn’t BH have gone for bp bluecap - otherwise they are betting the farm on something that currently isn’t bluecappable (new word). Not the BH way imho......
W$
On the whole, encouraging.
Whilst the normal negative views remain on loop tape, the counter view is that a strong step forwards occurred in the financial year. Sufficient funds are in place to put the viability of the company beyond doubt. Revenues received increased substantially, were they to increase again by the same percentage in the current year, that in itself could bring self sufficiency very close. China is another matter entirely, as are the other future projects which can bring revenues of many multiples, it's more than obvious that this would move the company in to real earnings.
I know that the negotiation of a new agreement with DSM has been under way for a long time already, the conversation I had with Ian Ford touched on this, without any undue disclosure. The wording of the paragraph explains that Provexis could become the supplier of Fruitflow, and the suggestion that the amount paid by DSM for them to supply their existing client base could become more rewarding for Provexis. The prospect of Provexis changing their business model is intriguing, but I have some concerns over the funding and establishment of a stand alone supply chain. Firstly, it rocks the boat, the established relationship with a global specialist is not to be scrapped lightly, and I'm sure it won't be. Everyone, from the top down, has been more than a little frustrated by the pace of revenue growth, but these results show real growth, and the prospect of much more growth. I wish Ian Ford well in his negotiations.
This is from 2 years ago on how to submit health functions but no indication of timescales
https://www.cirs-reach.com/news-and-articles/Breaking-News-New-Health-Food-Raw-Materials-Functions-in-China-are-Waiting-for-U-to-Explore.html
As BB says, Overall, pretty good results.
Well if I am honest, revenue was by far greater than I expected.
The new health function claim is by far the best way forward and to have something like "Help to reduce platelet aggregation" on that list of permitted health functions would be fantastic.
Unfortunately the RNS was unclear on the position of Blue Cap. Originally By-Health was to submit for Blue Cap on Feb 2019 under the existing permitted health function claims and imo this would have been Blood pressure reduction as the other 26 health functions are not a good fit for Fruitflow.
As for time scales after submitting the new health function claim..... Not aware that this has been done before so how long is a piece of string. (short I hope)
No stuck it on ABDX XX
Have been here 15+ years and would think anyone who's been here a significant amount of time would want to hold on at least another few years given this statement:
Planned launch by By-Health, a circa £5bn listed Chinese dietary supplement business, of a number of Fruitflow based products in the Chinese market is progressing well. Potential sales volumes remain at a significant multiple of existing Fruitflow sales.
Will be looking to add more to holding, when possible, if this remains sub 1p
Not a bad story imo..
By-Health currently expects to be in a position to complete the last of its eight studies and file its regulatory submission to the SAMR for Fruitflow in the first half of 2022, seeking to obtain a new permitted health function claim which would be in addition to the currently defined list of permitted health claims in China.
If By-Health is successful in obtaining a new permitted health function claim, it is currently expected that this would result in some significant orders for Fruitflow, potentially at a multiple of current total sales values. The Company continues to believe that Fruitflow has the potential to play an important role in the Chinese cardiovascular health market.
Hey pumpky, you cashing out here to go all in on hemo?
Fair enough. Good luck. But please don't post negative comments as it's only fair people do when there invested. To much of that in AIM already. ATB
Overall, those are pretty good results.
The increase in revenue from the AA is excellent, though tempered somewhat with a drop in sales in Q1 from this financial year, so, as Doc Horrible says, we may be flat or thereabouts in the current FY from the AA. That'll become a little clearer when the H1 numbers come out in a few months.
FF+ sales are still nothing to write home about in that it only made a contribution to cashflow of 40k (138.2 -49.1 - 48.7 ) though, to be fair, any effect of direct sales in China via the distributor will barely show in those numbers.
Another loss is anticipated by the board for the current FY, but it'll hopefully be of the same order, or less, than the year just reported on.
We have a bit of flesh on the By-Health calendar as to when they expect to submit on Blue-Hat. Realistically, I think you can add 6 to 18 months to that date before approval is granted, so the earliest we're likely to see that making an effect on our financials is late 2022, with 2023 being more realistic.
For the first time in recent years, the end of the current AA agreement we've talked about on here, has been formally mentioned ( well done Ian ) and we have a bit more detail. My expectation is that the agreement will be extended but on slightly different terms, which will hopefully be to our advantage. I'd expect, as Ford is negogiating with DSM, he'll also be looking at potential partnerships with others on the manufacturing side ( By-Health is the obvious candidate ) so we have both a backup plan, and also some leverage with DSM.
With a current market cap of 18 million, I don't expect DSM or By-Health to make an offer for us.
I'll hold what I've got, but don't feel a burning desire to buy any more. Mind you, the share price is above my last two sales so wtfdik
Had enough and sold;Good luck all
The key question for me is whether or not there has been any SAMR submission to date. Were the 2019 submissions dropped in favour of the new health claim submission? If so, then they will submit the new health claim submission in 2022 and it could be 2025/26 before it is approved. Alternatively if the original submissions went ahead in 2019, we could get an approval in 2022.
The revenue growth was actually in previous years, but skewed by Covid. Next year, we’ll probably be flat or a fall due to Covid.
Very appropriate user name for a holder of this share!
Loss reduced by 30% means to me 2 more years of losses to come . I expect IF will want a pay rise on the back of this light at the end of the tunnel FR's statement , how long is the tunnel ?
The patent was flogged to us for peanuts 11 mill shares are ATM worth not a lot. It might hold promise though which is what as kept this Ian Ford charity going .
I have been in PXS 12 years , to me it sounds like jam tomorrow which is what we always get --
'Potential sales volumes'
'fixed at favourable market conditions, '
Potential sales will depend on what they spend on advertising , the DSM % to PXS is secret so 'favourable' means not a lot.
It is really good to be given a much more detailed insight into the current Patents that are in operation, together with a synopsis of the activity in securing new Patents over the last 12 Months. Two if the "Patent Family" are even granted in China (which was always a concern of mine).
It is my belief that the value of the Company lies entirely in the nature of the Patents that are held.
Indeed, if you strip out the R&D costs from the Accounts (which presumably represents, in the main, the cost of securing the new patents) you could even go so far as to say that Provexis is now Operating In Profit.
It is good to see some sort of timescale attributed to the SAMR approval process even if that timescale is longer than we hoped.
Downside risk of slight concern is the renegotiation of the DSM Agreement - that could go either way.
It does look as if things are progressing in China but I can't see any approval being achieved until late 2022 and it's anyone's guess as to when any revenues will be produced so very much on the back burner in that respect. The new agreement with DSM is to be shrouded in secrecy same as the 2010 agreement so shareholders won't know the details anyway! After 11 years and having been the "jewel in DSM's crown" the contract still only provides £500k of income. Much cut & paste about interest from industry etc which never happens in reality. More fund raising needed so that hasn't been put to bed yet so more uncertainty. Directors emoluments slightly less than last year but still nearly £300k from a loss making business! Same old, same old and the market has reacted with resigned indifference as expected. Bottom drawer for at least 2 years IMO.
i like the theme and end markets. well funded. taking an initial long position.