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"PS, where are you picking up the data that the oil has a high wax content?, the CPR’s that I have read, state circa 17% and it’s classified as a high quality sweet oil 43 APR,…GL S"
Hi Swizz, not so much the wax content but its characteristics -- Barryroe oil is solid at room temperature! Pour point is 21°C. More important is the WAT (wax appearance temperature) of 46°C, which is the minimum temperature at which it must be brought to surface and requires specialised subsea hardware. The method previously mentioned was vacuum tubing. After that, the handling involves things like insulated pipelines, heated storage, or treatment with diluents that act as pour point depressants.
In a sensible world, PVR should be making out like bandits now with oil touching $90/bbl. By my naive reckoning -- costs per bbl of $26, 40% PVR ownership (assuming they had to give half to a farminee), 10% NPV10 discount -- they would be worth $3/share. It takes some screw-up to get the SP down to tuppence ha'penny as they have managed to do.
Manyana: "... why bother with an appraisal well to look for oil. Whereas Ryan will not politically prevent a major gas field as a replacement for Corrib when it drys up and because gas is now the flavour of the month to feed all those power stations ESB are talking about building ... So, if it is "only one fifth of Corrib" you intimated the gas was irrelevant so the only way to make it relevant is to find more and to do that will involve an appraisal well, possibly drilling lower than KES were allowed to do down only to 4,000 feet whereas Providence now has unfettered access over Kinsale since KES have given up and go down to any depth via an appraisal well."
The appraisal well is not "looking for oil". The oil has already been discovered. There is a difference between an appraisal well and an exploration well. Appraisal is about figuring out how to commercially exploit what you have already found. PVR have already chosen the site where they are going to drill -- the K site for which they have already done a seabed survey. It is up dip from the 48/24-10z well that they drilled in 2012. It will penetrate the same sands (we hope, as a major point of the appraisal is to demonstrate their areal extent and connectedness). It's more than possible that the gas bearing upper sands extend into the Kinsale OPL/1 area of the Barryroe east panel, very likely even. But PVR don't have a license to drill that, nor to appraise it. They do not have free rein just because KEL have left the scene.
Remember, a year ago we were talking about an Early Field Development Scheme where appraisal wells would go straight into production. PVR does not have time for pfaffing around. They are not poking random holes in the ground to see if they yield gas or oil, even less so can they declare that it's a gas field just because that's more likely to win a public popularity contest. Investors want to see the already discovered resources being exploited. Those include both gas and oil, with the latter constituting the vast majority of the field value. Under last year's plan, the gas was not even going to be piped ashore. It was going to be burned in situ to power operations. And I will bet you that even that was just a sop because producers are no longer allowed to just throw away the gas by flaring.
Again, to reiterate: the intervals that PVR have actually tested are in the basal Wealden, and show that the lower levels contain gassy oil, while the upper levels contain oily gas. You don't get one without the other so you have to handle both. The oil is waxy and needs special handling and you are going to have to pay for that infrastructure anyway AND it constitutes the lion's share of the field value. So PVR needs Sleepy to issue a license for OIL extraction even if they can promise him lots of gas along with it.
Its the famous Frank Carson adage "It's the way I tell'em".
If the Strategic Update talks about oil, throw your hat at it. Ryan will just jump all over it but if the EU approves gas he won't have a leg to stand on.
Talk of gas and he has to come up with a good answer as to why Ireland is importing "fracked" gas from America under the lids even though he says it is "unclean".
And, as you say, tomorrow is "D" day for Europe as it will surely declare the Taxonomy to vote for "gas" whatever about nuclear. Even our beautiful EU Commissioner, Mairead McGuinness is the one promoting it so it would be strange for Ryan to override our own EU Commissioner.
And if it passes, Providence will surely use it as an argument to develop Barryroe.
Agreed Manyana, the focus is very much moving towards natural gas and with the EU Taxonomy vote taking place tomorrow, on the inclusion of Nat Gas and Nuclear, it could potentially provide Providence and Lansdowne the perfect platform for the Strategic update to be provided next week, along with it being the incentive for Ryan to finally sign off the SEL 1/11 lease undertaking, taking into account that the latest Q4 and H2 update on the petroleum leases has still not been released by the DECC, it does feel that each of these steps are now linked to each other,…GL S
This has now become a political football and even if there are billions of barrels of oil in there, Ryan will do his utmost to keep it there so why bother with an appraisal well to look for oil. Whereas Ryan will not politically prevent a major gas field as a replacement for Corrib when it drys up and because gas is now the flavour of the month to feed all those power stations ESB are talking about building.
Germany yesterday "BERLIN — Germany's new government on Tuesday gave the clearest indication yet that it would discuss halting the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline if Russia attacks Ukraine."
So gas is now the order of the day and I see American and Australian LBG gas is now being diverted to Europe instead of the far East. I am sure Ireland would like to be a recipient even if it is "fracked". Oh! for an LNG terminus in Shannon!!
You, on the other hand, said the gas in Barryroe was irrelevant because it only had one fifth of Corrib - perhaps your weak memory and your obsolescence in the working world - possibly due to memory loss - has made you forget you said that.
So, if it is "only one fifth of Corrib" you intimated the gas was irrelevant so the only way to make it relevant is to find more and to do that will involve an appraisal well, possibly drilling lower than KES were allowed to do down only to 4,000 feet whereas Providence now has unfettered access over Kinsale since KES have given up and go down to any depth via an appraisal well.
Sorry for you "troubles" as we say when someone like you is suffering. Rub a bit of VIC on your chest and it might just clear your brain.
Manyana, I though it couldn't get more bizarre than when you said a seabed survey was going to find oil. But now merely typing a document is going to discover gas? Makes you wonder why they paid for an independent audit of resources when they could've just declared Barryroe to be a giant gas field.
Barryroe has always been an oil field with gas attached.
But if the strategic review said there was more gas there to be proven by an appraisal well making it primarily a gas field I think Ryan would find it very hard to refuse a license, otherwise what would the appraisal well prove as they know there is oil there already.
They could be producing gas by 2023 and at the latest 2025 with oil off-carry as per the Shell MOA of years ago.
The strategic review isn't going to be positive because it's just going to reiterate that one of PVR's key objectives is: "considering and developing an appropriate funding strategy"... as if that wasn't the only thing that mattered. I'm sure there'll be other blather in it, but that's what it will boil down to. There might be something about a cheaper approach to early field development, or maybe just about drilling an appraisal well and worry about field development later. Doesn't matter how cheap it gets if the funding is still out of reach.