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Hi GT - FYI - On 14 April 2016, the Company agreed the terms of a replacement secured discounted bond facility with Hawk (the "Bond"). The Bond has a redemption date of 14 April 2019 and the amount to be redeemed on that date will be £4,110,000, with an equivalent gross redemption yield of 12 per cent. per annum, and includes an arrangement fee of £28,600. At its request, Porta will be able to redeem the Bond early at a discount calculated on the date of redemption. As well as having the opportunity to repay the Bond at a discount, the Bond will help reduce the Company's monthly interest payments, as the redemption premium is only payable on the date of redemption. In the event that the Bond is not redeemed in full on or before the redemption date, interest shall accrue thereon at a rate of five per cent. above the base rate of National Westminster Bank plc for such time as it is inforce. ******* Note that this can be repaid 'at any time' at a discount which could form basis of good news. With regard to the public affairs hires I take a different view that PPS business across all regions of the UK is buzzing looking at regional input on website. PPS is now under Newgate umbrella and these hires fit nicely if there is indeed increased activity. I also like the recent concentration on the insurance sector which is looking like an increasing niche for Porta. Hopefully we'll get flesh on the bones on Thursday. Nice to see tentative buyers starting to pick up stock perhaps as a result of their initial research. We are, after all, well below the radar of most II's and any interest could magnify the upside quickly with a gap jump.
Not sure what date they rearranged the debt. Looks like they have been struggling on public affairs judging by those new hires. 2 big names left a year ago and set up new firms. Did they take clients with them? We'll have to see what Thursday brings. 1m buy showing up from Friday. I can't believe all these trades last week were buys. The late 1.3m trades match the 1.25m trade. So this looks very organised. No RNS from the buyer yet.
Thursdays interims should certainly provide a lot of information to digest. Like you, I am expecting a small loss around £250k as a result of a 'now-passed' Brexit slowdown with indications that project work and IPO activity is picking up nicely. I expect revenue of £18m with significantly lower exceptional costs than last years interims. Operating and admin costs should track around £14m and then come the unknowns which could easily tip the balance into profit or 'predicted' small loss. The 'significant' reduction in exceptionals could easily be balanced by the recruitment of senior execs but I was encouraged by the fact that these guys came on board voluntarily thus eliminating costly head-hunter costs. Translational gains from Newgate Australia and the far-east should bounce the figures quite nicely and BoD interest and visit to our antipodean operations in the summer should help to cement organisational cohesion. Newgate Aus [research] in particular looks to be having a strong six months looking at its website. Optimistically then, we may actually be running a £250k profit with increasing cash-flow. Rolling up the loan debt to 2019 will also have helped finances going forward....but IF......and I say IF...management have have targeted the loan debt and can replace it at 6% or LIBOR plus 2% then there could be a sea-change in sentiment. If either or both of these scenarios play out then I would expect all the BoD to have buy orders in place on release and the 4m sale be replaced by similar sized buys with new instos following suit. Dreaming? ... possibly, but the argued logic is there.
I gathered that when we met. I actually passed on your accurate assessments to the BoD [with appropriate acknowledgement] and suggested that if you can do it then perhaps our brokers and Nomad should be equally engaged. Since part of their remit is to encourage institutional investors to look at prospects and consider investing, this 4m blip 'could/should' have been watched and absorbed by having an interested party on the sidelines. I'm equally convinced that the BoD have been precluded from buying for some time due to developments that will be highlighted on Thursday - hopefully, loan debt replacement or conversion. Keep scratching the numbers.
Thanks Adastra. I do love numbers and figures. This is a share where it much easier to analyze patterns. The buyers and sellers all use predictable patterns here. I called Friday perfectly. The fund is clearly sold out here. The 1.2m trade was their remaining stock. I expect losses of 0.3m to 1m on Thursday. Assuming no D and A again.
Very impressed by your research and predictions on Porta since we met at the AGM. Time was, I was the only poster here when the share price was a lot higher but the business was a lot smaller yet higher risk. The company is now a lot more stable and growing yet several factors are dragging the price back - all well discussed here. You have called both investor sentiment and background trading correctly on several pivotal occasions - well done. Your running diary of trading patterns impressed me in June as did your attention to detail. We both share similar views on institutional irrationality which seems perverse given the outlook especially for Newgate, Redleaf and PPS. Will be an interesting week with the 4 mill hopefully being the final sale and good news pending Thursday. I expect reduced number of post-Brexit IPO's to have dented a little progress but pent-up demand should increase flow this quarter. Get the loan debt down and sentiment should change quickly if it whets the appetite of new institutional players.
Hopefully their sell order has now been fulfilled 400,000 buys so far Only a matter of time before it starts to move North again
4 million sell trade has appeared from last week as predicted.
Bob Morton often converts his loans for shares Wouldn't be in the companies best interest at the moment He always does his deals at 12% A bit steep but nothing unusual I refer you to my previous text
I doubt that is the case. Hawk investment were involved initially as it was a start up. The share price is dipping due to funds selling. Adastra seems to think they are working on refinancing firm. I am sure this will involve a deal on the loans. With a bank or someone else? They hinted at this at AGM. So not a red flag for me. Long term I am sure the board will want to increase porta's size 4-5 fold. Recovering the sp here will help. Bring on a few director/fund purchases.
big red flag imv.. ..why not aligned?? why shd hawk earn such huge real returns when they are so strongly connected to management/influence?? ..if the answer is that they privately reckon the sp has plenty of downside risk..well..they are being proven correct/wise..irritatingly correct/wise lol
Only two negatives Firstly a fund selling Secondly stupid interest on debt Everything else appears to be on stream to make serious profits. Just a shame the seller couldn't have been taken out in one hit. Broker needs to earn his corn on that one New business looks good Industry reputation looks good Overseas operations look good U.K. Business at last seems sound Employed some big hitters let's hope fee income is treble their salaries All in all I am well down on my investment but strangely optimistic.May even have a dabble before Thursday
I paid no attention to the trade type Mick. I purely look for trade patterns. Someone else will have to answer your question. My logic. Just tot up the numbers. Seller cleared at least 1.7-2m shares today in open trades. There were about 2.5-3m buys today and the share still went down. 850k buys yesterday and a possible 2.5-3M buys on Monday? Works out about 7M shares being bought. The overall sells must of been at least 7-8m being sold. (Assuming only 1 seller below 3%) Some of the buys were from PI. There was also 300k of shares bought on ISDX. Which means a late trade of 6M or so will follow next week if the seller has cleared their stock. This matches what happened when we last had a fund sell out earlier in the year. The end game saw automated trades with a large sell figure on the day. Followed by a large trade of 4M a few days later which had initially caused the share to fall. The large sum today was 1.2M. With large trades 5-6M to follow. The numbers are around double from last time. So will we get an RNS on Monday? Probably not from the seller if they cleared out today (Below 3% of stock). We could get one from the buyer? 4-6M of those buys came from the same source as they were all 200k and 250k in size. So an RNS is very possible from a new investor. Unless Fidelity or another existing investor chirped in here. They may time the RNS with the results if someone has gone above 3%. PR timing! Like most things Mick always trust your own judgement. The above is my opinion. I could be wrong.
am i off the mark regarding these trade types?
Late sell trade for 1251677 has appeared around 13.51pm timing. Which patches the automated sells around 12 and 1pm. Suggesting maybe a seller cleared out its final stock today? Hmmmm.
normally would agree with you but showing as ordinary trades and ordinary delayed respectively
Note a lot of those trades at 12.13, 12.16 and 13.13 were all automated trades done by a fund. Which suggests those were sells to me. The rest look like buys.
Not till sell order is complete.
Can anyone explain why sp is down yet lots of big buys going through?
way an rns shouldn`t be far away with the volumes involved
Thanks....simple question though, if fund selling out shouldn't we see sells as well as buys?
A fund is selling out. As Adastra suggested horse trading. If it is a small fund it could have up to 8m shares. Larger fund would be a major share holder. 15m shares. Either way we are close to 6-7m shares so far.
been watching the trades again, helluva lot today . bought a few more to lower average but not showing up on my money am account?. on isdx it does but not sure why never had that before.
...What is going on with the SP....loads of buys, very few sells and yet the SP is being walked down to near zero if it keeps going....very worried that something going on that we are not privy to.
1m buys this morning and price has not moved. Few buys on isdx too. Up to nearly 5m buys now.