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Unbelievably, Spikey's demonic 666p is now in view. Markets seem to be anticipating an unprecedented revenue drought due to the impact of lockdowns. Feels like a melodramatic overreaction, but who really knows. We're in uncharted territory - here be dragons?
I wonder if a further market slump should be expected as even Trump supporters start noticing that COVID-19 is not a Democrat hoax and not under control, finally catching up with reality. The markets may even start factoring in a Bernie threat if he can regain momentum as a result of the mismanaged US health crisis.
Well that's my guesstimate level sliced through like soft butter!.
Added before the close, small amount.
Coronavirus contagion and mortality figures are likely to get worse for a couple of months, and this was entirely predictable from what happened in China, so the markets shouldn't be so surprised and may as well get used to it. There may yet be a second wave in China, but WHO stats suggest the inflection point was passed a few days ago and the virus is apparently subsiding there, just as it takes off elsewhere.
In a years time, are profits going to be 30-40% down as current share prices suggest? Surely not for companies like Prudential, where longevity is built into the products. That doesn't mean we've seen the low yet though, the hysteria is as evident on the stock markets as it is in the supermarkets. Even companies which benefit from COVID-19 are down today!
So, most of the guesses for the low have already been blown through. The real question for investors now is not so much the price but WHEN will it occur, because that will likely be the best buying opportunity for years. Good luck with timing that!
I think this is what's called s risk off day ).
It's Gavin btw, I don't like my username and for the life of me can't remember why I choose it!.
Probably a flippent moment.
"a little and lesser win possibly a few times a year is very acceptable to me."
That's good as long as you win more than you lose James, but surely it involves constant monitoring of price movements, and a quasi-mystical ability to time the market? I admire the bravery and wish you luck, and certainly the volatility since the split has given you plenty of opportunities for little wins (or losses).
The guessing game is "Just for a bit of fun ONLY." Difficult to see how fatprofits could have made that any clearer, and our cheeky responses are obviously not investment advice! Why not have a go yourself, don't you like fun? The arbitrary three month limit takes us to the end of May, and if anyone wants to play, how about guessing the high too? If so, no cheating - has to be before the results come out next week! Despite my gothic gloom over the likely impact of COVID-19 I don't expect any stability or consistency from the market, so I'll go for 1411p (highest closing bid price): sorry, I know you all probably wanted to pick that number?
My reason for not posting frequently here is a lack of Edit function,
with dyslexia my posts can appear messy with typos - which I usually spot
having clicked, Post Message - so I spot mistakes post message ).
Apologies if there was an misunderstanding on that post,
it was not intended in any way as an optimal low buy point/strategy.
I just wanted to get some idea where posters might see the price heading.
I'm a full time trader and frequently post on another site under s different username.
Fwiw I always buy and sell at intervals.
Sold a few PRU right on the open at 13.08, just bought a few back.
Best of luck whatever your view. On overall markets just over 30% invested atm, fwiw.
All be it tend to turn over many positions quickly, I do have some longer term holdings also.
"Guess".
A more realistic way is to pick a range and buy and sell as you reach the peaks accepting your profit and calmly waiting to the market slip back down as it invariably does.
To try and guess a high or low is profitable for a minority but a little and lesser win possibly a few times a year is very acceptable to me.
The future for the NHS which is already overstretched is simple those at the coalface will stand their ground as usual and put their bosses to shame come virus or not.
Mng suffers a double whammy when markets fall....AUM falling reduces income and the insurance solvency ratio will also fall. YE 19 valuations should be ok, but the outlook with sustained market falls would be more problematic.
Covid19 has been delayed and may be dampened in effect...the govt has a difficult job.. do they prioritise the old and the sick who may die against economic disruption and the jobs/wealth represented by the stock market....but really small and medium enterprises that have limited resources. If one group suffers the govt priorities will be wrong, so both need to suffer pain so that the govt can blame the virus.
Yes Jatw, the swift and deep M&G dip is intriguing: they seem to still be regarded with some suspicion of inherent weakness by the market? Pru's fall was cushioned by the backhanded compliment from hedge fund raiders, that she is massively undervalued, the charming cads! Neither of these trends was apparent until recently. I wonder if todays bounce is of the deceased feline variety, or if it can be sustained by a good reporting season. To my mind the COVID-19 situation has not improved at all since yesterday, with US deaths immediately following Trump's cack-handed announcement that everything is under control. The vaccine seems to be a difficult one to produce, according to experts, and we may well see another winter or even two before one can be deployed. There is a marked contrast between containment efforts in different countries, and it should be very interesting to see how the outcomes from the NHS response compare against the money-focused US system, hampered as it is by ignorant, delusional leadership.
BBD I have Pru comfortably ahead of MNG at -12% v -18%. These are from a holding split on demerger...... must admit I thought Pru would end the year higher than MNG but not by this route.
* info
* Started
Excuse the typos - mislaid my reading glasses.
If I'm looking at the right into, indicative futures look quite ugly atm for
most major markets. That can change.
I noticed that defensives stated to take a bit on Friday, would guess there may
be more of that to come.
Good to see a few guesses. Hope mine is wrong, my second choice was 911 ( :
Dow Jones is historically overvalued, and can probably drop a long way on prospects of a worldwide recession, dragging the FTSE with it. People are often surprised by the severity of the swings during a crisis. The low could be deep but brief.
Starting to believe the markets are oversold, there are some indications that China is getting things back together, whose to say we are not near or at the bottom.
1111 then in March '20
1500 in April '20
Ok, well I'm gussing 1137.
666 would be beastly?
Oh my, an optimist, eh.
As good a guess as any, appreciated.
I'm hoping, as I hold, it won't reach that level, however it's possible.
999p seems like a suitable number?
Just for a bit of fun ONLY.
I'm thinking here of a low point price within the next 3 months.
We may have already seen it today or not, or not as the case may be.
Would be interested to see where people's thoughts are at ...
Many thanks