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Does anyone believe if there will another bid that will be higher than SS&C's offer of 1275p? Furthermore, the price today is lower than the 1275p offered by SS&C. Do we believe that the share price will drop further and as a holder of BP shares, will I get 1275p when the time comes to give them up? Appreciate any thoughts on the above?
£15 and a deal can happen. They will probably have to take this to auction
So with the sp rising well above the latest 'accepted' offer, does the market think there will now be another offer from elsewhere resulting in yet another change of heart?!
3rd bidder? It is just an increased offer from Vista
3rd bidder entered the room...
Can someone please explain to me why Coast Capital is so concerned with which bid would benefit Blue Prism more and especially whether the acquisition will "help transform SS&C into the clear tech leader"? If all shareholders are getting bought out for cash, then the price received should be the only thing that matters to existing Blue Prism shareholders.
Or is there another layer of conflict of interest where big shareholders like Coast will be given an opportunity to convert their stock to SS&C?
While I'm aligned with Coast that there is conflict of interest on the board recommending the Vista bid, it seems just as fishy that Coast is recommending SS&C for only a smidge higher when previously Rasteh was quoted as saying that even a bid with a 100% premium would vastly under-recognize Blue Prism's intrinsic value. There's some f*ckery going on here on all sides.
Looks like the new bid is getting some support. Maybe Coast is stirring the pot to get a bidding war going as he had already built a 30% no coalition vs. the first bid
“We believe that the bid by SS&C for Blue Prism will, if successful, help transform SS&C into the clear tech leader (and therefore services leader) in the fund admin space,” said James Rasteh, Founding Partner at Coast Capital Management. “This is a visionary move and is indicative of a visionary management team.”
Coast believes SS&C is an incomparably more suitable partner for key stakeholders of Blue Prism than Vista or Tibco, whose questionable dealings and relationship with the CEO of Blue Prism (and at least one compromised board member) prevent investors from considering the Vista offer and process as suitable.
“It is shocking to see that the Board continues to endorse Vista’s bid, which confirms their clear conflict of interest that we have been highlighting since day one,” said Rasteh.
No way either bid goes through at these prices. They are BOTH bad offers! No chance they get 75% approval, and the stock will drop like a rock when it happens. Let's not forget that Blue Prism new business is down 16% year-over-year in the 2nd half of fiscal 2021. The business and its brand has been badly wounded by these management blunders.
I plan to wait for the crash before I touch this stock again.
No chance the first bid gets the 75% needed. In fact, support for the offer keeps going down as those shareholders sell more. Just today:
Bidco has been notified that on 16 November 2021, Lead Edge Capital Management, LLC disposed of 1,310,929 Blue Prism Shares which were the subject of a letter of intent, representing approximately 1.4 per cent. of Blue Prism's issued ordinary share capital as at 16 November 2021. As a result, with effect from such disposal, Bidco has received letters of intent in respect of an aggregate of 8,284,974 Blue Prism Shares, representing approximately 8.5 per cent. of Blue Prism's issued ordinary share capital as at 16 November 2021.
Therefore, Bidco has received irrevocable undertakings and letters of intent in respect of a total of 20,350,473 Blue Prism Shares representing approximately 21.0 per cent.
Good to see the counter offer. Share price slightly higher means the market thinks the original buyer may have to come back and offer more. The BoD may still retain their support for the first offer but they are under a fiduciary duty to shareholders.
Finally! It's disappointing that it's only slightly higher than the Vista bid though. I'm not surprised that the board isn't changing their mind to do what's best for shareholders. The former CEO of Tibco is on Blue Prism's board, while nobody on the board has former ties with SS&C. That's the difference plain and simple. It would take a lot higher price to sway this level of corruption.
My call - the bid still fails and the stock price drops lower. It's going to have to get worse before it gets better.
Hi All, new bidder has joined in now so hopefully we can see some upside as there is ample frustration from investors that the board are letting this go on the cheap. Interesting that the BOD are still backing the previous offer…
Couldn't agree more. One day business schools will write a case study about the company who invented RPA back in 2001 just to die a slow and painful death 20 years later just as the industry it created is taking off.
1) Massive underinvestment allowing competitors to catch up and surpass it
2) Choosing to aquire Thoughtonomy
3) Terrible string of hiring decisions. Replacing incompetent people with different incompetent people.
4) Selecting board members with conflicts of interest and no skin in the game
5) Letting corrupt leadership (CFO) get away with insider trading while misleading shareholders
6) Never listing in the U.S. to unlock easy value
7) Terrible investor relations and marketing
8) Favoring cash flow break-even over growth
9) Giving up and selling the company for 1/4 what it should be worth, while taking golden parachutes to do so.
Anything I missed?
I've sold up now and am v disappointed with how this has played out. Still watching to see if there is another opportunity.
However I think the BOD should hang their heads in shame, I feel they have somehow managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory with their running of a company with such potential
The CFO is clearly the most unethical and corrupt of all of the actors involved. It's not just that he doesn't have any shares and is basically being bribed to go along with the acquisition, it's also that he sold all of his shares in February right before the huge drop in the share price. INSIDER TRADING! LOCK. HIM. UP.
The CFO has zero shares in the company, but Tibco are going to pay him £500,000 if the deal goes through. There has never been a more biased trading update. He should be in jail for insider trading.
From the trading update just released.....
"Net new bookings2 are expected to be circa £114m, compared to £122m last year. On a constant currency basis, this represents 3% decline. For the second half of the fiscal year, net new bookings declined by 16%, or 13% on constant currency basis, year-on-year."
This management team not only botched running the company, but their shenanigans have now run off new customers. Smh.
November 19th is the in-person meeting, although proxy votes occur sooner.
When is the vote by the way?
@Lsoc85, what specifically in the scheme document switched to your decision from hold to sell everything? I haven't read it yet (because I sold everything myself weeks ago), but now I'm curious. The die hard fans of this company keep dropping like flies.
Today's scheme document with TU has changed the situation. I'm out. Will keep an interested eye on the outcome of the meeting. If it crashes down to £7 I may well have another look. But for now, cheerio.
Half Year Report - 17 June 2021 - reiterating First Half Update of 17 May 2021:
"The Group continues to plan to achieve exit run-rate underlying cash breakeven within the 2021 financial year and continues to expect financial performance to be in the ranges outlined at the May trading update."
We know, as AG has previously outlined, that the BoD are being bonused on getting this dreadful deal over the line.
But to what lengths are they willing to go? The confidence of break-even by October 21 is there for all to see, not once but twice.
Do we actually think this BoD would sabotage the PLC to achieve this deal? By either ensuring it didn't achieve break even or deliberately giving a pessimistic TU?
For me, the sp direction will be determined by the TU due in c. 4 weeks' time.
As a profitable, stand alone PLC with £170m AR and 98% retained revenue, I don't think it will be two years before the price recovers to well above its current level.
I might well get a smacked arse but I'm holding nonetheless!
Great points @Lsoc85 and @MattTheBrave. I agree on all points. The only thing I would add is that I believe they have to take the existing bid to a vote before Vista would sweeten the pot on their own - unless a competing bid forced them to do it.
If that's the case, I think its right on that they won't get 75% approval and that the share price will react negatively on the failed first vote. It could drop 15%-30%, especially since management has signaled that they can't turn this around and everyone knows that things may get worse before they get better if they have to replace the BoD and/or executive team.
I think the play is to steer clear of it entirely until the vote happens since the risk exposure of the presumed failed bid is not worth taking. The opportunity, then, occurs after the big drop when the price is dirt cheap. That said, anybody who holds their nose to dive in at that point should be prepared to hold for 12-24 months to realize the upside. IMO.
I sold out on 28th Sept having only been a holder for a few months. If the bid fails, this could get very interesting, although it does present a huge amount of uncertainty. Essentially the entire Board would need to be replaced which would take time and cost, and leave the firm rudderless for a period. The question then for institutional investors is are they prepared to take the short -term pain and block the deal (remember, many of these guys are remunerated on short term performance) or simply sell out now and chalk it up to experience? Going to be an interesting watch from the side-lines, but I cannot see the point of any PIs staying in the share at the moment. Either the deal goes through at current share price, or it falls after the failed bid with management credibility in tatters.
In my view, it's peculiar that an announcement on the date of the vote has not been forthcoming.
Historically, we're due a TU in the next month and, according to the last one, it will be to announce that the Company has made a loss for the year but has finally broken even on a monthly basis, and is therefore expecting its inaugural profit for FY22.
If you were Vista, you would want the vote ahead of this news. Holding the vote after makes it far more likely that your bull**** offer is rejected.
So I believe that the BoD and Vista have spent the last few weeks desperately scrabbling for votes to reach 75% and have thus far failed.
Vista will therefore be considering an increased offer prior to the imminent TU; or walking away.
They must know though, that once this PLC converts to profit, they'll never get it as cheap as this.