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I don’t disagree
I think the update has confused rather than clarified things.
I hope the company clarify things in the coming weeks.
Two weeks ago I was very happy with my investment in a company with heads of terms signed for financing, a big upgrade to the MRE, a much awaited and expected to be very positive BFS leading to start of construction of a very attractive Project in Angola which as Paul has mentioned many times is esg complaint and likely to attract II’s.
The curve ball of the wood group study was very well received by the market and saw us head over 90p and we have also had a great board appointment.
I perceive (and hope) that we will be updated positively before 16th November with regards to the BFS .
I truly believe that the BFs and primary focus at this stage is Angola , with the exciting uk opportunity Provressing in the background.
There has been nothing in recent interviews from Paul that concerns me . I just feel last weeks news is very much open to interpretation and discussion and has caused some doubts for the first time in months amidst positive news flow .
Ironically with the lockdown, market uncertainty and election looming the delay may not be such a bad thing.
Wlaw1
I tick the recommend because I want to believe in the project. Please appreciate I am getting confused on what is happening and to read my scribing with that in mind. There is nothing underhand in what I am writing, but I am really am trying to get a grip of the story unfolding here.
The problem was that the RNS was written in a concise way and maybe it needed just a few extra sentences in a few places as its genuinely open to different interpretations. For example the new development strategy. They could have restricted that to carbonate MREC work, as the evidence to support it is probably overwhelming in the advantages it offers and we can see that as tons of materials drops in weight and processing costs to end users in where it is used in the upper supply chain. Instead we do not know if they are throwing in the whole kitchen sink with all the exploratory work as well with Coola and UK design project and everything is combined as one development plan all in one go. Its great to have all these plans and opportunities, but I do feel focus, like achieving a big mine construction was a risk that we all signed up to when buying shares and suddenly its possibly getting diluted with many other objectives all linked in with it. As the story changes, so do the start up costs and all the other factors on project risks that increase along with the ambitions of the newer plan. Some of us want to see if this company can deliver a new Angola mine on time and to the anticipated delivery costs. The exploratory work in the UK is good idea, but the emphasis is that its exploratory and really not a part of the on-going BFS that builds the actual mine and concentrated resource product.
If another investment is needed to help build magnets for UK windfarms, I would prefer it was operating as a subsidiary company and the downstream work which is so massively different in skill sets and risks was not linked to the financial success of what is done in Angola. So if Pensana want to create a spin out company in UK to do all that kind of work and it does not affect the Angola side of the business and its profitability that would be fine by me. If I wanted to buy shares on the spin out I could if I wanted to. Pensana might have shares in the created spin out company as well if they wanted that risk. In essence, what I am concerned about is that the project is expanding way beyond what I thought I was putting funds into and I do feel the difference between exploratory design work like in the UK needs to be separated at some point from new development strategies applicable to what is being done in Angola.
I don’t read it quite the same way as you are tornado.
Paul has alluded to a delay/ bfs update rather than actual BFS in a couple interviews in recent weeks although I did think I understood from his last interview BFS was on track for month end.
Either way a delay to post election/market turmoil over the next week probably isn’t a bad thing.
I am still fully expecting the BFS , funding and cracking ground in early 2021.
The uk project/study/idea is exciting but ambitious and I see that as being entirely separate to our main focus and certainly don’t expect it to be featured or mentioned in the BFS.
British Mike I will pass on your question. Its an important one!
Going back to the RNS it says the BFS needs the Carbonate MREC study so I assume this depends if it will be done by 16th November. Earlier in the RNS it talks about the UK project being delivered by Wood Group. It is totally unclear if all this work has to be done in tandem with building the mine and whether both have to be funded as one single project. In essence the RNS is unclear. Additionally it refers to 16th November as just an update which again implies that all the workstreams are now one super project. Of course this may not be what they intended and that it is completely a different fund raise and a much later follow on effort.
The BFS was due "mid-October" - Paul Atherley.
However, since deciding to explore the U.K. upstream processing option (great in my opinion as a US trade war with China could cause issues when we come to production - and this alternative makes us self-sustaining and good post-Brexit).
How I see it is that the funding outcome determined by Woodgroup will take 3 months - and wants to be included in the BFS, hence the delay. An update by 16th November as by then PRE will know the selected U.K. site (if any) and if the CAPEX suits PRE's strategy.
A question I have for PRE (if they read these forums) is clarity of the Angola infrastructure. I believe the Chinese have invested heavily into the rail links, port hydro power etc so does this mean PRE will have no 'issues' when it comes to transporting and exporting the ore? If we by-pass the Chinese for upstream processing 0 they don't 'own' the dock etc? I assume the Angolian government have full control over its use so we don't end up with some offtake/tariff deal to use the port etc.
Scaramonga88
The confusion is that feasibility study is now being placed into or part of the bank feasibility study or maybe its not at all. This kicks the can down the road for quite a few months if it does. Why is it referred as just getting an update on 16th November for the BFS as it clearly won't be done. The idea that UK Government will progress any developments on grants in the middle of a second wave Covid pandemic is not realistic. Its a separate long term project and it takes years to resolve with local and central government.
Hi Tornadotony, I find your view interesting, I certainly found the update posted last night (UK) really positive and informative. Not sure how they have complicated the message or increased the risk profile - the only real change is a study into the feasibility of a processing facility, which for me shows the management team are exploring opportunities to make the company more competitive and profitable. Taking advantage of the future £50bn UK Wind Farm initiative and the grants that will support that is a huge positive surely? Anyway please let us all know how you get on as always interested in company updates and further clarifications...
Back to the report last night- re-affirmed 990,000 tonnes of NdPr (.1) at Longonjo alone is absolutely huge and very exciting. A 2 week delay to the BFS is nothing, given the complexity, so very surprised at the further shake down today. Great potential this company and 65p is a bargain. Topped up day, won’t be this price for long.