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So to clarify - the FSDEA were not expecting to be paid back today but at point of main financing (which I assume in Feb was thought to be completed by today), subject to some further detail probably, and have agreed to this in principle (probably some extra interest payment or some such no idea).
Sorry 27th June 2023 RNS not August (did it from memory):
"FSDEA has agreed to provide an initial US$15 million loan facility as part of a US$80 million investment (which is subject to due diligence and the finalisation of investment terms) and which will be repaid out of the larger facility, for the US$200 million staged development. "
So, in any event, the FSDEA are not expecting to be paid back until the main financing is completed. Hence, imo, FSDEA have agreed to this extension during those discussions.
Happy to hear opposing theories...
MAA86 - that's not quite what they said:
"the Company is pleased to report that discussions have been held regarding the extension of the loan facility to coincide with the anticipated finalisation of the main financing. The Company will make an announcement as soon as these arrangements are finalised."
The agreement is that the loan has been extended to coincide with the finalisation of the main financing. Whenever that would be. This is a good thing. In addition, the lender would then not expect, imo, the financing timeline to be longer than the extension already given (from 28 feb to today). And as at that point the extension thought 19th April acceptable, then surely we are within a relatively short amount of time for the project financing, especially as no next date has been given..
Also if you look at the August 2023 RNS it did say it would b repaid as part of the main financing package in any event.
Good to go from here imo.
An excellent appraisal Lizard and the update regarding the FDSEA repayment is corroborative of your view that funding will coincide with the draw downs required to meet the construction timeline. Surely, no justifiable argument to the contrary !!!
Thank You Greek Lizard.
Very informative.
Take issue with the statement regarding managements expection of the share price. What does he expect when everything is "last minute.xxx". I think it's deliberate. PA has previously hinted he wants to flush out retail investors. Let's hope somebody like the "Iron Lady" is hoovering up.
Welcome to the world of PRE.
Confused with this latest RNS. Loan deadline was today. The RNS states discussions have been had but does not confirm if it has been extended leaving shareholders in the dark. And why leave it untill the last date to update the market. The naysayers are going to have a field day.
Given the amount of preparatory work, headworks, etc which has been detailed by the company and there being ample free cash on hand, obviously, the Board is comfortable with the current state of affairs, knowing the ASWF has pledged support in the form of a $15m loan, additional equity and is part of the debt funding syndicate.
I believe those who have spoken to PA have been told that the share price is not where management expects it to be.
Obviously, the Board has every confidence that the ASWF will fund the project's ongoing construction until the debt funding is finalised later this year, when needed, as per the construction timeline.
Those who have questioned management have been told that the debt funding will fall into place when needed and, importantly, it is anticipated that
offtake pricing will be with an ESG premium and done at a time when ndpr prices are trending higher, up 30% on recent lows, which will invariably
move the share price, with better economics to support the debt funding.
With all this war mongering and the need to replenish and build armaments apart from general industry, we all are aware, especially with the Uk Government’s recent upgrading of economic forecasts for the UK, the Government will be very keen to secure the vital ndpr refining at Saltend.
The company is in talks with both the UK & US Governments!
The future for Pensana is assured, in my opinion.
As to the share price, I am expecting the market makers to sell their recently acquire cheap shares into the announcement, so arm up, and buy on the opportunity while the shares are at a 5 year low IMO , knowing the market makers (MM) will be shaking the tree, frustrating the MM’s by buying, will send a clear message and they will likely change strategy and move to accelerate an upward trend when a higher share price will be surely be long overdue!
As far as the construction timeline requirements go, only $5m is said to be needed for May, the larger requirement for June’s construction payment would suggest that May / June for FSDEA equity piece to fall into place to keep abreast of the published timeframe, seems viable to me.
There appears to be no need to take the equity piece until the funds are needed and closer to when, I assume, the debt funding terms sheet becomes binding.
it really depends on where your faith comes from....
"the longonjo earthworks and civils contractor, grupo nov, have mobilised to site. ground clearing of the area for the main construction camp has been undertaken. the fabrication of the construction camp buildings by bushtec progresses well at their plant in south africa and is on schedule for delivery to site in jan 2023"
now....
"grupo nov has completed the civils and services connections for the initial section of the 316-person modular construction camp. the us$1.3 million camp has been fabricated off site and is ready for shipment from johannesburg to site during march 2024"
we had the same half ****d shifting sands with saltend in 2022.
Lewis you have been know to raise some good reasons why shareholders should feel timely announcements have not been forthcoming, having said that, the company has detailed to the market a construction timeline, where earthworks are progressing into May and are funded by the $15m provided by the FSDEA / ASWF. The timeline details that civil works will commence in May, with an additional cost expenditure of $5m forecasted for May. Also, detailed is that the accommodation block is in modular form and will be dispatched from South Africa, so obviously, you should not be troubled by the fact that construction of buildings on site is not happening. Given the amount of preparatory work, headworks, etc which has been detailed and there being ample free cash on hand obviously, the Board is comfortable with the current state of affairs, knowing the ASWF has pledged support in the form of equity and is part of the debt funding syndicate. I would agree, that the share price is not reflective of the true value of the company notwithstanding that the Board has every confidence that the ASWF will fund the projects ongoing construction until the debt funding is finalized later this year, when needed, as per the construction timeline.
You've gone from mentioning a price of 15p a few weeks ago to 5p today. Sounds like your looking for a cheaper entry..
Yes, because of the economics. There's no difference here. Seriously, put an objective view on this. If it was your money, would you finance this Project as of Today?
The stock is priced at the project value level, but that is worthless at this moment except for what is left of 15mill Angolan injection.
Fair sp value today 5p and that is being generous.
Lewis
We both know a nickel mine is very different to a rare earth mine construction. HZM was not the only nickel mine closed in construction, several others got mothballed and you probably know why.
Tony,
None of your points are going away anytime soon and to be honest this is where you need good, trusted leadership. If the economics are good and the return is there over 2 years, the risk is lowered. I'm not seeing any enthusiasm.
The best you can hope for I that the non binding term sheet includes a progress clause where the work on site ticks the boxes eventually. Guessing the recent site visit didn't show enough progress (a building or two may help, not just mud and power lines).
However, the management need to be honest with the shareholders, they will be forced to eventually.
Half assed director buys won't cut it, or support the sp ahead of the next raise to keep the lights on and pay back the directors loans (with no transparent terms)
Ironically, finance is just the start of the challenge as per HZM who's mine cost was underestimated by 100%.
TT - I can only agree with you on HMG's utterly disastrous priorities management.
But, see here for an emerging view that NdPr price looks like it has bottomed and is now on upward trend, reflecting the real underlying economics of global supply and demand:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0iaqPeD1GUM
I don't see any significant shift in technology to alleviate climate change - it's still overwhelmingly wind turbines, solar panels and EVs on a massive scale, especially within China itself.
It wouldn't take much of a Chinese screw-tighten on REs to make the West see just how much it will have to pay if it keeps waffling along on supply chains security.
Lewis you know what the hold up reasons are likely to be.
1. Current depression on rare earth prices as China dumps on the global market.
2. Net Zero progress has slowed down because of inflationary impacts which hopefully are stabilising.
3. Interest rates have not declined yet.
4. Liquidity regarding banks on new projects that are not backed up with an on-going source of income despite off take agreements.
5. Poor political leadership as they are happy to have supply chains still reliant on China supply despite they are needed for their own National defence.
6. Geopolitical in that the mine is based in Africa and not within USA or the EU.
China would finance the mine build in full tomorrow if they received all the rare earths produced from the LJ mine and no supply was sold to Western countries.
What makes me feel ill is that the UK wasted more money trying to send a few people to Rwanda than the entire cost of the Pensana mine project and probably most of what was needed for Saltend. Tony
Classic retort because none of us know. What do you expect us to do? You won't find the answers by cussing the company on here!
Classic PRE holder retort. No counter.
Ask yourself, what is the hold up with the finance?
Woa! Intense.
Will you find inner piece if finance is achieved?
I did, when I was a shareholder. Did I get a response?
Interesting, no one willing to answer I will assume. Millions in incentives and salary. Miniscule director buys at this level, no closed period so financing cannot be as close as assumed.
Non-binding (worthless) term sheet for finance, similar to being offered 0% credit card, only to find when you apply you get 29.9% because if your risk profile at the time.
Directors "willing" to loan upto 2 million back to the company to keep the lights on, but no terms.
Ridiculous incentive package this year and next. 60 odd pence. Basically the value of the company as assessed a year ago. Lofty expectations back to the price point where they dropped a going concern at the interims that dropped tje stock to 15p. Get your heads out of backsides
MAA86 - Easy answer to that. Because neither Lewis nor Theorist are shareholders. They comment on here out of the goodness of their hearts.
Why don't you send your concerns to the remuneration board?
Theo, but they offset that renumeration with the decency of buying £5k of shares at current prices and may provide a loan back to the company at undisclosed terms to cover group costs (more renumerstion).
How long will it be I wonder before ASWF have to offer another 15 mill to keep the local hires in place that PRE are shouting about.
Look out someone will be redrafting the sulima/coola update to keep the faithful happy
Hi Theorist. Genuine question. Do you see any similarities here with HZM?
another month flies back. atherley says thank you for his $30,000, george appreciates his $50,000 and ****** his $40,000. btw this excludes share awards. $2.0m of annual remuneration for the board. maybe for another million bucks you might even get to find out what’s really going on with the non-binding term sheet.
So important it just dropped 10% in value! Great call Tones...