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Sefton @ 17;45................excellent analysis....cogent - and all too credible. Bodes well !
I think it is worth noting that whilst GRH (in the main) and MEM have borne the brunt of the assault by SoundReason, NigelHaemoglobin and CluelessTim, there are many other very well-informed and insightful posters on this BB, including Wacky, PrivateTesla, Nicodemus, BDT, Obadhia, etc and so it is hardly about just one or two people that have a similar view on the company's prospects.
So, it would seem that they have targeted mainly personalities, probably to try and engender doubt about their credibility (I believe they have signally failed in that) and, secondly, to make any others fearful of saying anything positive (or even just well-informed) about the company.
This BB was a very convivial place for a long time.
I think it still is.
I hope that these nightmares - CluelessTim, SoundReason and Nigel - get short thrift and that we can get on with exchanging information, insights and views in a very civilised way.
This whole expreience of recent weeks has every hallmark of a hatchet job.
Send the foaming-at-the-mouth rottweilers (SoundReason and NigelHaemoglobin) after the most credible exponent of the upside value case (GRH).
Then send in the suave, cool, emotionally composed player (CluelessTim) after the share price and timing. Classic Trojan Horse/Fifth Column. The Cambridge Five would be proud.
Every single hallmark of "black ops".
And the majors know that game well......
Nico
SR was mighty tee'd off
not because I got SOUND wrong
but the reverse...
I got EVERY SINGLE DRILL there 100% correct
Including of course Badile
he chose to ignore CLEAR warnings on the Sound BB...
whilst spouting about his so called target of 250p...it was if it was some sort of mantra
Well it was drivel
Drivel that cost many decent folk there VERY large amounts of money...
I know of folk who lost over £1m each
I then posted several times re PRD at MUCH lower SP than now
I even posted a year ago on this very BB...when I had completed my substantial buying...at 1.5p
again, he ignored THOSE posts
indeed it was far worse than that...
as I posted earlier this year on the SOU BB ...
that people there might JUST want to look at/consider PRD...
PRD was about 4p at the time I think
In response to that, he put a post on Sound BB advising folk to treat my views 'with a large pinch of salt '
so yes...
he might well have dissuaded folk from buying PRD
As to GKP...I got them at 4.5p
They went to 463p bid...a mcap of £3.3BN
I owned 1% there
I posted twice when I sold down
I had posted on 20 DEC 2011
about the likely HUGE SCALE of Shaikan...
the technical post is still out there...
I mentioned it this morning on here
The GKP equity holders ended up holding only 1% of the asset (they were diluted by bondholders due to war/ISIL/ issues with Iraq government)
Please look up what the current m/cap is!!!!!!!!!
Yes...that is the 1%!!
Yes...I think SR is a terrific bellwether!!
ATB
Hi Nicodemus,
I am not sure that they are the same person at all, even within their own "handles", but it is my view that they are likely part of the same camp with the same mission.
What that mission/agenda may be, I do not know, though I have some suspicions, based on long experience in how these things are done.
As you correctly pointed out, NigelH at various points in the early days was cogent, sometimes (very) well-informed and expressed some politically-based sentiments that he/she then seemingly completely reversed. Within days. (I don't care what anyone's political views are - the common cause should be the advancement of PRD).
Equally, the style of communication and even syntax changed. The "original" Nigel was very coherent and emotionally calm. Later iterations of Nigel were semi-coherent and the communication style often verged into the totally hysterical.
So, I do not believe Nigel is a single person but rather several persons using the same "handle" on the BB - and it varies from time to time as to which of the persons are actually posting under that name.
SoundReason was clearly set up to try to destroy the credibility of GRH and, to a lesser extent, MEM. They (in my view, likely a PR firm hired by a company wishing to buy PRD or PRD assets on the cheap) obviously used lower calibre people in this avatar because, whilst Nigel's personality had moments of sanity, SoundReason's was barely able to string a sensible sentence together.
CLT was a completely different situation. Very eloquent, well-reasoned and obviously knows what he/she is doing (some of the sophistication around their use of technical terminology clearly suggests someone with investment banking experience). Outwardly and broadly emotionally calm (unlike NH and SR).
And, as you correctly pointed out, he/she inveigled themselves in with a seemingly harmless name and initial statements that they were just feeling their way into the investment game (when it rapidly became clear that they were very sophisticated in the space). And so they built credibility and seemed to have become liked and admired on the BB.
And then came a relentless, insidious but very subtle wave of undermining confidence in the company.
I suspect a "black ops" operation by a highly sophisticated player (maybe an oil major) looking to be able to buy PRD on the cheap at the appropriate moment for them.
It has every hallmark of that - try to destroy the credibility of the most serious players on the upside (GRH mainly but MEM was also attacked) and then, simultaneously, and more much sophisticatedly (CluelessTim) undermine all the valuation parameters of the company.
I suspect we are dealing with multiple actual different posters, using the three "handles@ but they may well all be actually acating on one common mission, probably with the same paymaster.
Mission Objective: keep the SP as low as possible until we are ready to pounce.
Just my ha'penny'
GRH- Without doubt Nidge , Soundreason and Timothy are one,
First two pop up at the same time as new 'investors' but both have the same underlying intention and obsession in following you to give you grief because they gambled and lost on SOU.
Their alter ego Tim avoid insults, appears respectable and well balanced but is sneakily trying to cause you pain by losing you money.
Let it go Nidge, Only Making Plans for Nigel has scarred you.
Afternoon all
factcheck...
my apologies but your post ...below... is not correct
'PG has compared PRDs drill to TXPs drilll : size of the prize and value wise. He is a 20% shareholder, don't think he would put that comparison to a £350mn market cap company in an Rns unless he has good conviction himself?'
Sorry...
The forthcoming Guercif drill is a totally different kettle of fish to TXP
in many respects...
not least of which being that the NETT per unit to PRD is more valuable than the NETT per unit to TXP
it is actually NETT TEN TIMES PER UNIT more valuable
That fact ... among a few others...does occupy space in my head
BTW...I think that SR was banned...possibly temporary
His aliases coming from the same IP address were also banned I think
I think it was temporary as his alias Nigel Haemoglobin went quiet also...
then popped up anew
Unsure if Clueless is another alias in that group
ATB
Thanks for that Sefton, I do like this BB, not only (with the exception of a few) do we have some very informative posts regarding the companies assets and projected success.
We have some psychological profiling, coupled with the works of Shakespeare.
I am genuinely impressed.
For those that might want to see a literary parallel of gaslighting and what I believe CLT is doing here, one need hardly look further than Shakespeare's Othello, where Othello is led by very subtle suggestions by Iago to start to doubt his wife's (Desdemona) fidelity - and eventually murders her.
Shakespeare memorably described Iago as driven by "motiveless malignity".
I suspect CLT' s malignity is not without motive....
comprised, not compromised....
I believe that what is going on here with CLT, NigelHaemogblobin and SoundReason (though he seems now to have been removed, either volunarily or involunatrily - I know not) is basecially a stockmarket version of gaslighting.
For those not familiar with the term, it is a psychological phenomenon, usually deployed in personal relationships, where one party starts to undermine the sanity of the other. It is usually done subtly, in such a way that a perfectly sane person starts to completely doubt themselves and begins to wonder whether they have gone start raving mad. It is most effectively carried out insidiously and relentlessly, such that victim becomes trapped in a goldfish bowl situation of only having the perpetrator feeding them information - information that causes the victim to increasingly doubt their own sanity.
It is most effectively worked by people who have credibility themselves (CLT did build some credibility here and is clearly a sophisticated person).
In the case of Nigelhaemoglobin and SoundReason, they did not really build that credibility because neither was capable of containing their hysterical outbursts.
CLT was different and much more sophisticated and subtle. I was myself taken in and believed his bona fides, even when I disagreed with his conclusions.
To believe in PRD does not mean that the BB has to become some sort of cult thing of praise-singers of the company.
But it is about an exchange of information and views - and has been very, very good at that.
But, by definition, it is likely to be compromised of shareholders who want the company to succeed.
Those that don't, usually self-select by selling their shares and seeking opportunities elsewhere (and good luck to them).
Except our own little group of gaslighters......
Well Clueless Timothy (such a disarming name, me know nothing, I'm a simple soul)
You are becoming the equivalent of a the pub bore, sharing your in investment strategy on a daily basis as if you were Warren Buffet or Alan Greenspan.
None of us give a flying..that might sound a bit rich from someone such as myself who regularly mentions sticking half his worldly worth in here. However, I do that because I'm an upfront and honest type of person and I am so confident in becoming a millionaire within a couple of years, that I hope others will follow my example.
Life is best lived by spreading the love and not sowing subtble seeds of doubt every time you post.
The first five minutes of a successful drill gives you no chance whatsoever to buy in. Or the first fifteen as the re-rating is immediate in most cases.
The same applies on a negative drill.
You buy the amount you are comfortable with, pyramiding in so as to give you a cushion. You do not risk what you cannot afford as with all investing.
People's analysis of CO2 business can be gleaned from the 2018 presentation PG did. It is incredibly thorough and shows the economies of scale that are present with the service we provide on multiple drills. T and T 's service business on a 30 million rated stock offers plenty of cushion as it expands into already producing wells. This mitigates the risk of the other plays.
Provides a valuable service as already 7 in country operators plus 2 state owned oil companies have already contacted Paul for the services he provides. He already has stated he has 5 NDA's waiting to be released. Concentrates time and again on the fact this is ta "growth business". Now if you do not wish to be invested in this service business that is your prerogative.
As for Morocco we a microcap have a hydrocarbon asset 2 kilometres away from the main pipeline that can pump around Europe. Here Morocco pays Algeria double plus the prices we in Europe pay, as they have nowhere near the supply to the growing demand. Also on a successful drill no taxes are paid for 10 years.
If thirty million is to rich for you then please for your own safety sell and do not return here. I do not want your health harmed by the stress.
By the way Ireland where first gas is predicted for Q£ 2023 we sit next to a bunch of majors with two assets that have billions of dollars gas just like Morocco. These are some of the primest acreage you can find.
Please sell so others can buy. If you can drive the price down further with your de-ramping I would be mighty grateful. Probably alot of other potential holders would so keep up the good work.
CLT I think you've been delightfully clear with your investment strategy. Please keep repeating it over and over... and then over again on this BB so that everyone can be sure that your point is firmly embedded into our psyche's.
Thanks.
H
Oh, hold on a minute.........
Factcheck - correct. That was before I discovered flaw in my analysis of co2 EOR segment valuation and since then my margin of safety valuation on PRD has gone down in value. And I also realized the flaw in my argument of holding through drill results when market has derisked quite a bit of the drill before we've drilled. And given that any possible upside vs downside moves post drill results from those levels don't give me a good risk reward I decided to change course and accept that I might have been overly optimistic, ignoring negative views and the 400% rise in short span of time when holding full position. So reducing the position gives me a bit more unbiased view of looking at the position. I still agree PRD is a great opportunity but will wait until drill results before getting the same position if not more.
Ind- please share your strategy. It's just my view and of course could be wrong. Based on your experience of other oil gas drill.explorers what has been the average opening percentage price for the first 5 min after a successful commercial payload discovery RNS and what has been the downside opening for a failed drill RNS? Would be good to have some stats imo
Please share your research and strategies?
All IMO and could be wrong so always dyor
Tim for someone always selling you seem to have a remarkable difficulty selling down the rump of your shares.
Day on day off you come on like Nigel to talk down the possible upside of the stock. You come on to talk down the upside of the service business which has percentage upsides for successful drills for partners. All the time stating how bad the business is. If the upside was so bad why did you invest in the first place?
You are deramping a business that the fundamentals were evident before. The fundamentals being that for a small cap you have potentially a super-carbon backed by a greener service business that can generate huge returns from the services and percentage profits it takes.
The easiest thing for you to do is sell your small stake and cease worrying about others business. We all know energy is a binary play. you can lose your total amount or make several multiples on it when it comes to fruition. The idea that this goes up 30-50% on a commercial payload when the business is rated 30 million on Morocco is a deramping masterclass if it was not so blatent. As for the other assets they have not been even factored in.
Sell and take your deramp somewhere else...
When he first decided to invade our positivity and serenity Nidge was a full on patriot, empire loyalist and lover of the British Army.
He recently changed his views and attacked Sefton for dissing Sinn Fein with a full anti imperialist rant.
Someone said recently he lost £75k on SOU and thought Nidge has lost similar. However, little boy Nigel blames GRH and can't take responsibility like a man for gambling and losing.
Stick to a Santander 123 account Nidge, or if you are feeling edgy, Premium Bonds or a £20 bet on the football. You could be the geezer in the pub squealing that Cardiff 'let me down' for £4k by missing that injury time penalty.
NH- would disagree regarding the farm down. A big player wouldn't come in until sizable resources are proven. Sdx might jump in to take a slice and fund a drill program given the synergies but can't see the likes of COP jumping in immediately off the back of MOU-1 unless its a resounding and sizable success. PG is very confident of the drill and in a way PRDs rise of over 400% over the last few months is basically pricing in that confidence imo. I'd rather be in PRD before that confidence was priced in than once it's been priced in because if theres a disappointment (which no one believes as PG is super confident) the market would not be pleased to say the least. If MOU-1 is a success we might open up 30% to 50% but if it's a failure then 70% drop is possible given what we've seen with other exploration plays who have priced in a good percentage of success pre drill imo.
Hence why decided to book full profits going into drill and will be aiming to get out fully on another attempt at 15p + levels. As a play opening drill always has risks attached to it and reading about the old offset well issues (some over pressure related issues, etc.) that were encountered at the GRF-1 offset well, reminds us that it's an exploration well after all with risks irrespective of the confidence level. I'd take that risk at a low market cap level rather than from a much higher mcap levels and PRDs market cap currently is similar levels to SDXs which shows the markets confidence in the drill results.
Of course, no advice is given. The above is just my strategy and others have different strategies but always keen to hear what others strategies are? Because if Mou1 is not a success and Morocco gets written off I'll not be buying in even at 3p levels given my valuation estimates for co2 EOR segment.
All IMO and could be wrong so always dyor
Nigel,
From your posts on the PRD board we know you don’t like lefties, people you perceive to have been born with silver spoons in their mouths, men of the ‘outgoing generation’ …..
Can I ask who you do like?
Sefton, I've always looked at PRD as 3.5 plays with the Corrib South/Rams Head license as our fall back, ace up the sleeve.
I had every intention to pull out at 35p because I fancied being a millionaire, but I honestly reckon now that any of our three plays could be worth that. This isn't from reading GRH's or MEM's calculations but by reading all the industry journals and quality press articles unearthed by Tesla, Wacky and occasionally myself.
I have so much faith in this share, I'm not a rich man other than the pension pot I invested last May (lost my earlier £30k life savings on BLOE) However, I didn't so much as blink last week when my net worth was down £125k because I know we'll be back past 17p in a few months time.
This share will make us all very rich if you have the bottle to dive in deep...
Exactly indiscipline, what happens in the fail or uncertain result then? Is PRD a gamble? True?
Good irony, enjoyed it haha.
No, I've just seen too many mostly blokes literally broken by betting (that is what it is) on companies which have clear warnings written into the prospectus.
If I had just one E and P it would never be more than 5% of my capital, ideally less.
Nigel Hemorrhoids is back doing his little troll routine.
People are happy to take the risk they deem fit. As usual you talk banal waffle that adds nothing to the board.
Anyone with a happeth of sense knows that PG has a list of partners already lined up on the back of a successful drill.
You don't need to worry about these things as you aren't invested.
Well it's up to you but given your very good entry price and what is a what 800% rise you should discuss it with your wife and do listen! Women are way better at managing domestic finances than men. Hence why 97% of the numpties turning up at Oil Barrel are blokes and a fair number not particularly wealthy or educated.
I hope that PG consults widely about his decision making, he was very poor recently in an interview with a female journalist but then again he's in the outgoing generation.
Hi Nicodemus,
I think it is also worth observing that, although PRD is a single stock risk, it is actually 3 different risk (and opportunity) situations rolled into one. So, it actually has cross-collateralisation from a risk perspective - which is very unusual in companies of this nature.
And the three different exposures, T&T, Morocco, Ireland, are quite different, with a very low degree of correlation to the downside (there may be correlation to the upside if all three come home at once).
So, I think the PRD situation is much more nuanced than just a case of putting all one's eggs in one basket.
And, as I have said before, I myself have a much bigger exposure to this stock, PRD, than is consistent with most portfolio structuring tenets - precisely because I believe the risk profile is actually more diversified than just a single stock.