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Wel - of course, none of my posts are advice for anyone reading them. It's only to generate a debate on the merits or ddmerits on a specific point of view on the co. It's all just opinion that can all be wrong.
Imo no one should trust anything read on bbs unless it's backed by facts or news, everything else is just someones opinion, whether pie in the sky or otherwise projections. Any rise we get in sp should be sustainable and that will be through PRD delivering on its massive potential, and not by what someones views suggest on a bb imo. Progress on the projects will drive and sustain any rises, everything else is just noise. Market can give rises for no reason and can just as well take it back for no reason but value accretive news is what will sustain any rises in sp imo.
All IMO and could be wrong so always dyor
91,
I have no desire to get into a debate with you on this issue.
Firstly, it is academic anyway because the placing was done (whatever view was taken of how or why it should have been done), so the issue is moot,
Secondly, because I do read your posts with interest and believe they add value and I have no desire to see any further enmity develop on this board (which is largely very convivial and civil) ; and,
Thirdly, because I really hope this board does not become a fighting ground, when we all have common cause - the realisation of VALUE in PRD.
The placing was done. We can now do nothing about that, except move forward.
For the record:
i) I do not know at all whether the placing was responsible in part or in full for the share price fall. It could just have been market movements or a big seller exiting (maybe even a member of the Choir);
ii) Given that management determined a placing (raising) was necessary, they must be trusted to do it as best they and their advisors see fit. Please see my previous posts - I did not at all criticise management or the advisors for having gotten the placing away. I have done many placings in my life and they are never, ever easy. Which is why , if you read my posts, you will see I was very complimentary, even if I thought there might have been a better way to do it. Just getting it done was a pretty good achievement.
The placing has been done.
Let's leave it there and crack on towards the summit.
Days even weeks broke out on the bulletin board with subtle deramping. They even made it out as if it was longer then what it was and the drop was too big to recover from. And so weak holders equaled in there boots and ran, traders gave up and all that was left was the LTH fighting the battle. Sadly for these subtle dermapers research wasn't a strong point and so the battle began for sense and sensibility! One by one derampers fell and sense prevailed
91,
I think it is always useful to concentrate on facts, rather than opinion.
The facts are these:
A placing was done.
As far as I am aware, it was not done to a trophy investor, who might have attracted wider market attention.
As far as I am aware, the placing was not done under lock-up conditions - ie that they have to hold for a year or whatever other period might have been agreed.
There was dilution anyway because of the placing - the more so because the placing was done at a discount to market price, when a premium could have been extracted from a single placee. And that premium placing, under lock-up, would have set a floor for the stock price.
Anyway, the whole thing was messed up technically, so PG had to underwrite the placing while the technical mess was sorted out.
So, we ended up with a mucked-up placing, no trophy investor, done at a discount and dilution anyway.
Your point against me might be?
91,
I did not say solely getting someone on as a showcase. Though you are correct that I felt that getting in the right kind of trophy investor would have attracted the right kind of attention.
I was attacked because quite a few said that was a stupid idea and just dilute their shareholdings.
As it turned out, only a couple of weeks later, i) a placing was done, ii) at a discount to market, iii) technically screwed up and so had to be technically fixed.
So, dilution did happen anyway and there was no trophy investor and (it seems), no lock-up.
Fairly close to a definition of a mess.
Handwinder
NO...that is not the case!
The shares were transferred by PG to Novum ...
specifically to enable Novum to fulfil its obligations as provided in the recent share placing
an entirely different thing!
ATB
I was roundly castigated when I said it - before the placing was done - that it should have been done in i) a controlled fashion (single placee under at least a 1 year lock-up), and ii) at a premium to then market price (it should - and could - have been done around 16p, because a single place would have paid a premium to get in at volume under controlled conditions).
I know that there were family offices that would have leapt at that deal.
Instead, I was roundly attacked and the placing was done anyway - at a discount to market and seemingly to placees that exited pretty quickly (I am still not certain that it was the placees that might have exited but to have even allowed that possibility was sub-optimal).
So, I would suggest those that criticised me so heavily around my proposition of a controlled placing to have a look what happened as a result of following the opposite approach.
Sub-optimal, frankly.
So Novum has been our seller! 11m shares was a hefty overhang to clear. Lets now plough on and hope our long term view is better than their short term view.
I’m an avid reader here and very much appreciate the well-researched posts of many. Also really dislike the occasional personal insults etc though, it is pretty embarrassing in my view.
Having bought in dribs and drabs over the previous couple of months, I’m now sitting about even after the recent sharp drop. No plans to sell and definitely not deramping, however I did wonder at the time whether the placing might act as a short term sustainable ceiling/anchor for the SP, as well as a floor. This is because you can only assume that PG didn’t feel that PRD / existing shareholders, including himself, were getting a terrible deal at a 10.5p placing price. I think that sense has helped to drag the couple of subsequent spikes back down in the absence of further news. Hopefully that news (as others have noted, expected to be re TT) comes soon and helps allows a more sustainable rise into the drill.
i gave up on this bb as it was starting to get quite nasty and now some people have done a u turn and talking this down :)
i think it's sometime best to stay away from bulletin boards...
So Clueless Tim comments further to confirm my and others observations. No one but no one deramps a share that they are holding and CLT is not here to save us from ourselves. So maybe best to keep your negative opinions to yourself and the rest of us can make our own decision on how we progress our investment.I cannot be swayed from my opinion. You’re a deramper fair and square.
The bb is for sharing opinions on the co. as we all do. Almost every one of us, including myself is going to be wrong in terms of our views on value that PRD will ultimately unlock either on the upside case or downside. Imo the seed of doubt for me was when PG referenced the adage, regarding the sp rise in the interview - if there's money on the table take it else it might not be there when you might need it. So can't fault the holders booking profit above the placing price of 10.5p. Maybe I just read into it too much but why would the sp not be higher in case of a successful drill result unless it's a hedge against the drill results outcome? Hence decided to wait it out for the drill results for full holding. It's all just my view and very well could be wrong and I hope I'm wrong for the sake of my remaining PRD holding and as imo PRD has great potential and even after successful drill results the upside will be massive.
All IMO and could be wrong so always dyor
If Tim did not see much upside post drill, why invest in the share in the first place?
Some drills that hit are not successful because they do not have a commercial payload. Others are wildly succeessful You buy for the delta. The disparity between the successful upside and the non-commoditised asset in the ground. Its rule 101 of commodity plays. RNs's can create some sharp uplift. Nothing creates more uplift than a succesful drill which realises a commercial asset.
Some say it is a subtle de-ramp by Tim. I would choose to disagree...
Well spotted Welbe..
A very sly and subtle deramper, even down to the disarming user name and lacking of subject knowledge, wanting a little advice cos 'me know nothing'.Been reading his essays for a while, his MO is to appear positive but always leaves a bitter seed of doubt...hope he chokes on sooner rather than later.
He and that Bunny Boiler, Nigel/Soundreason with his obsession with blaming GRH for his SOU losses are the only posters truly responsible for bringing the quality of his board down. Plus myself and few others mustvtake some responsibility for getting sucked and responding when we get mugged off by the two of them..
Nidge./Sound Don't gamble big boy money if you can't handle losing, check the signs in the windows of Ladbrokes..When the Fun Stops..
PG hasn't sold a share. Neither have I! If he thought the Company was overvalued at £45 mill, I guess he would sold a few? Not fun to see big paper losses, but nothing had changed last 14 days. The effect of the low free-float is both ways.
But CluelessTim.. we are not all on the same side as you suggest because you are subtlety talking the price down aren’t you!! IMO you are on the ‘other’ side and trying your hardest to sow seeds of doubt. Those that are ardent followers of this board can absolutely see that..You’ll find it hard to convince me otherwise.
I'm not interested in short term sp movements and remain long and strong. I'm more than happy with my 4p average and look forward to developments as and when they unfold... all in good time :)
Tim,
I have rather changed my mind about your posts.
It seems fairly clear to me now that you really want to drive the share price down, having exited and are then looking to buy back.
All of which you are, of course, entitled to do - it is a free market system.
I would, however, just caution other posters and readers to be aware of the lens through which certain posters may be positioning.
That applies to me too. I am long PRD and have always made clear my determination to stay aboard to the destination (which destination I believe to be a very attractive one). So, I have made it clear that I take a VERY positive view - but all my postings need to be viewed through that lens and therefore viewed with appropriate caution.
We ALL need to be aware of agendas on this BB.
Some seem very bona fide, either to the positive or to the negative.
Some maybe less so.
91- And we are all on the same side as holders and want to see sp rise going into drill hopefully, difference is that I've laid out arguments for why I'm not planning to hold through drill results and will book profits before that. Post successful drill will be piling in irrespective of the price, not before drill results. The whole reason of posting was to get counter arguments as to why it might not be a good risk reward move from proper contributors. Of course my analysis might be completely wrong hence I look for proper counter arguments on here from proper posters in case have to course correct, and not always keen on seeing just the positives of an investment. Posters can always choose to filter out views they don't like or agree with.
All IMO and could be wrong so always dyor
LN - I have been very positive PRD from 12 mn market cap levels. At a much higher level market cap those undervalued discounts have been unwound without much concrete news since that 12 mn level. I didn't want my flawed analysis to be justified hence decided to reduce going into the drill. Was especially worried about the low volume period that has kicked in going into May and second guessing if holders with averages below mine would take their profits before I choose to. Now waiting for the rest to be offloaded if we see another rise up pre drill. Like I said micro caps are known for round trips and as had experienced quite a few, decided to learn from it and book profits at a market cap level that was near or above my fair value with current known news, rather than ending up with a could have, would have, should have mindset.
Of course I could be wrong with new news flow but don't want to see much gains evaporate as others choose to take their profit pre drill and run with it on low volume days, and as all exploration have risk and the upside opening price on a successful drill results can be very small compared to downside moves on unsuccessful drill results so thought risk reward at those market cap levels were not in my favor. As to sustain and build on any sizable rise we need sizable news and can't see any sizable news apart from drill results imo.
All IMO and could be wrong so always dyor
I am all for reasoned counter arguments/ theories.
It's healthy.
There's suddenly an awful lot of recent posts from CLT in a short period of a news 'vacuum' that's starting to raise an eyebrow here. I echo other posters suspicions as to motive and timing.
I'm ignoring short term SP movement and I'm looking forward to news. Nothing has changed with PG's MO unless he states otherwise.
All IMO and could be wrong so always dyor
Good points well made 91.
Back to very low volume it would seem but we've seen what this can do when the volume is there. The 2million sell at 07:50 seems strange considering a juicy RNS is seemingly just around the corner (by months end I hope).
Really close to pushing the button to average up as I think we're currently at the new bottom. To date I've never averaged up but my gut is telling me to do so. Clearly I may be wrong too.
Would be good to hear from a chartists perspective.
Along the lines of GRH's post below, I would just observe that one sometimes needs to be very careful about agendas on these bulletin boards and how they can be very powerfully used by powerful interests to achieve desired outcomes.
I am well experienced in M&A over many years and, if I were advising a potential buyer of PRD's T&T CCS/EOR assets, I would certainly consider it money very well spent to pay an intelligent person to post well-reasoned, balanced and subtle posts on the PRD BB to drive value expectations through the floor and thus ultimately reduce the price I would have to pay for said assets.
Be well aware of potentially ulterior motives that may be at play on the BB......
That's why PG has a number of NDA's sitting in his back pocket kicking in to action when we get the final box ticks from the Trinidadian Govt, who Paul works with super closely.
I am quite comfortable with PG running the show. However if you believe your business skills are better than Paul's in this area we can raise resolutions at an AGM. Not too sure how much support is there for that.