The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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Really enjoyed reading this thread. Most definitely the best board I read and monitor. Narrowing down my investments to 3 companies and this is the most exciting one.
GLA
I suspect he's bought enough ;-)
Good Evening GRH
First I heard of the Talshint affair was from you. I was aware ONHYM were very restrictive over what could be published because earlier false dawns, but didn't realise that there had been a 'misunderstanding' of such a huge magnitude..
Paul has to be very careful what he says, but reading between the lines I wonder how the fateful Mou1 RNS would have read without having ONHYM keeping him on message.
Totally agree with you about trust and respect, ever likely ONHYM are cautious, another nonsense rumor made big news in 2012 as well. See below, I earlier saw this story in a Dutch o & g journal so presume it flew around more than a few countries.
http://www.moroccoworldnews.com/2012/06/43027/discovery-of-oil-in-morocco-a-hoax/
Nic1863
As its the weekend...for interest only
Did you know that the chap behind Lone Star was a tequila tycoon...
that was where he made his money...
that and hair care products , I think
The amounts of money involved were breath taking ...
as were the claims for the scale of an alleged giant oil discovery...
I seem to recall mention of 10 BILLION BOE
as were the subsequent claims for damages
It was extra problematical as investors who bought into the story
included a relation to The King himself ...
and influencial Saudis
I think one is VERY safe to suggest
that the style of publicity courted by Mr Tequila
was 'slightly different' to that of PG!
IMO ...
PG was able to get the licences
because the Moroccans trust and respect him
In big business (and this thing is mighty big indeed )
those elements ...trust and respect ...are super critical
Especially in N. Africa/ME
It's yet another reason I am here in volume
Regards
GRH
Agree Keith- I don't think we can comprehend the embarrassment the King and Government of Morocco must have faced, going on TV in good faith and confidently announcing energy independence to the population.
Morocco and Algeria have been at daggers drawn for decades so they must have felt absolute mugs going back cap in hand to Algeria saying sorry, we got it wrong, please continue to be our primary supplier indefinitely.
ONHYM was created as a result of the affair, ever likely they wish to control newsflow and insist foreign oilers under promise and over deliver.
It's all coming together, those of us in big are going to be very rich within a year or two, early retirement is most definitely to be recommended.
Now I'm just confusing myself... the Stena Don IS the rig CHAR's using for Morocco (the thread title was 'Namibia' which is what confused my feeble brain). Apologies
I'm off for a lie down...
Apologies... scrap that bit about the CHAR rig on the way, it actually relates to a drill offshore Namibia!
We’ve had news released in early December in each of the last 3 years (‘Operational updates’ in 2018 and 2020; Rig announcement for Guercif in 2019) so, having not heard from the company since late October (interims), my hunch is that we’ll probably get an update the week after next (w/c 6th).
It might be too early to release anything particularly significant, though I suspect confirmation of EIA approval and perhaps an updated / confirmed timetable for drilling might be reasonable expectations. I had previously thought we might also get the CPR released pre-Xmas but, having reviewed the IMC presentation again, Paul actually said that “the new CPR will be out maybe by the end of the year, maybe January, depending on timing”… so we may just have to wait a little bit longer for the return of MC!
Ultimately, I’m sure Paul will only release an RNS when he’s good and ready. I suspect he and Lonny are fairly flat out at the moment with lots (and lots) of spinning plates…
Androcles, I see CHAR took a bit of a hammering yesterday (-12%) presumably due to the concern that omicron might delay Anchois spudding. How CHAR progresses with its schedule should give us some indication of how covid is affecting drilling in Morocco (according to the CHAR bb, the rig (Stena Don) is now in transit). Interestingly, on the front page of the Telegraph today Chris Witty is quoted as stating the “new variant is less worrying than delta” so it may well just be the usual market (and media) panic and hopefully it won’t affect our plans for Q1 at all, we’ll see...
Of course people are getting twitchy, it is now two months from the last presentation, and only one month to the start of Q1 2022, during which drilling of two holes and testing of three is planned to be completed.
This is the Kingdom of Morocco, things are done a little differently here. Start by Googling "Mohammed VI business interests". The King seems to be a good guy, intent upon lifting Morocco out of poverty and helping his people achieve a better life. Despite there being an elected parliament, he has sole control of foreign policy, and is personally responsible for the good relations with US. UK, Europe & Israel. He pushed through a new Constitution, which among other things guarantees equal rights and opportunities for women - wearing the burqa is illegal. He and his close knit group of advisers are involved in most decisions that could affect the country.
Gas, and particularly Moroccan gas, is seen as a major key to the country's progress. As has been mentioned by other posters, he lost face previously by personally announcing what was supposed to be major gas discovery, which turned out to be little more than a wet f*rt. That will not happen again, and lies behind some of PRD's cryptic messaging. I am quite sure that he will want to review any agreement involving Moroccan gas, even if the agreement is not with one of his own businesses.
With regard to a drilling contract, that is not the normal situation either. The Star Valley 101 rig and crew is "the Moroccan rig". It (they) are currently drilling two holes for SDX, which will finish at the end of December. Prior to that, the rig was sitting in SDX's yard, doing nothing. If it is not used by PRD, it will almost certainly go back there until SDX need to find another little reservoir to keep up with their contractual commitments.
There may not even be a formal RNS containing the normally expected details. It may simply state that a commercially sensitive agreement has been made to fund the drills and tests, and that the rig will mobilise to MOU in January. If an independent company is the joint venture partner, more detail may be made available, but don't hold your breath. I find it very unlikely that someone in country is not prepared to take a $7M bet with such a large potential upside, to many that is just small change.
Porters,
I agree that it would be good to have news.
However publishing a timetable for drilling won’t mitigate any impact of the new COVID variant.
We may have to be prepared to ride that out.
With respect Mr GRH my opinion is news is overdue. But in your opinion to complete two drills in q1 when would the latest funding , drilling contract etc would need to be in place by?
Morning...
It's going to be a bleak walk with the boys this morning
Some people are suggesting that news is overdue etc etc...the frustration on this BB is palpable
Those suggestions are simply wrong and misguided...
By a country mile
Please...do yourselves a favour...
Go back and really understand...not just skim read...the latest presentations issued by PRD...
Watch the videos...absorb the staggering importance of what has been said
It is well known in commerce that deal timetables are often much longer than personal timetables...
This BB has become like an agony aunt on steroids
The endeavour that PRD is involved in ...
and I am talking solely about Morocco ...not all three aspects...
Is gargantuan in scale and importance
And value creation
BTW...
I have said many times that my risk appetite may be different to many...
Some folk assumed that I meant my appetite to be greater than many
That interpretation is totally wrong...
My appetite for risk is extremely limited
Caveat...
I might be wrong this time
DYOR
Regards
GRH