Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Afternoon Ct....re travel etc....i copy/pasted off Advfn board( hope that's ok)
Active covid cases in Morocco are down almost 90% from the peak in November. 4m doses of vaccine have been administered. Flight suspensions from multiple countries (including the UK) due to end on 21st March. I'm cautiously optimistic that we are on track for the April construction start, but further delays cannot be ruled out....
I haven't checked /verified these as decorating but can't be far off....guess it depends if Morocco lifts restrictions on 10th
Gla
Bdt
Agree Sefton - most are happy to see proof in the pudding even though the pudding arrives on its own time, nothing wrong with it, just different opinions.
Btw Morocco seems to be lifting covid restrictions soon in March and travel should resume soon too... Looks like Guercif drill first gas might be much sooner than chars offshore gas from 2024?
All IMO dyor
Morning CT,
I share very much your views on the broker note situation.
I also know that that route is, for whatever reason, not being used.
Given the calibre of the PRD leadership team, I can only believe that the chosen route is deliberate and that there must be good strategic reasons for it.
It may not be the case but I can you from past experience that banging on the drum of getting some decent IR here is just going to get one vilified and treated like some kind of lunatic.
The stress of that garbage is really not worth it when the stock is doing OK and the BB is otherwise very interesting and enlightening.
So, I am taking the advice I sometimes give to others and on the matter of IR, I will STFU (Shut The **** Up).
BDT, BDT,BDT,BDT, BDT,BDT,BDT, BDT,BDT,BDT, BDT,BDT,BDT, BDT,BDT,BDT, BDT,BDT, :) :):)
Hiya Nicodemus...
Surely with Ap in charge of his mineral empire and Morocco producing vast quantities of fertiliser, and hence large amounts of Co2.....we could be linked up at one point? Or is that too simple?but may ultimately be beneficial to both companies..
Gla.
Bdt
Good evening BGT. I was in CHAR myself a couple of times but got out because I thought the former CEO, instilled no confidence whatsoever. Got rid of him a few weeks after I bailed and they've been flying under the new CEO, Adonis Pourlis.
Interestingly he is the largest shareholder in RBW (which you know I am in ) and thus wields considerable influence. Morocco is the world's largest producer of phosphate which mixed with amonia makes fertilizers. I'm sure he worked for SXX near Middlesborough who are a phosphate miner. He's clearly a minerals man first and foremost, I'm trying to think.up some link between PG, AP, Massey and the Moroccan Ministry of Mines, Environment etc. For some reason I believe the destinies of my two big plays RBW and PRD are entwined.
Good evening BGT. I was in CHAR myself a couple of times but got out because I thought the former CEO, instilled no confidence whatsoever. Got rid of him a few weeks after I bailed and they've been flying under the new CEO, Adonis Pourlis.
Interestingly he is the largest shareholder in RBW (which you know I am in ) and thus wields considerable influence. Morocco is the world's largest producer of phosphate which mixed with amonia makes fertilizers. I'm sure he worked for SXX near Middlesborough who are a phosphate miner. He's clearly a minerals man first and foremost, I'm trying to think.up some link between PG, AP, Massey and the Moroccan Ministry of Mines, Environment etc. For some reason I believe the destinies of my two big plays RBW and PRD are entwined.
Cheers all for the inputs.
MEM - thank you for the insights. From what I can see from your comments the business model is impressive - Imo impressive enough to spin off into a new green IPO onto the market to the green investors and let them set a price for a business model that can be scaled across the globe to other onshore producing countries such as UAE, Colombia who are pretty keen to show the green credentials for every barrel they produce. Maybe too far fetched but an intriguing possibility.
Sefton /Matt - there is no doubt PG provides brilliant amount of information via RNS and interviews but what I meant was that getting the message out shouldn't fall completely on the CEOs shoulders. More specifically what I meant was given we have not one but two brokers is it not possible or is it that expensive for them to take a stab at valuing PRDs potential at risked and unrisked basis? Surely costs are important so..why have two brokers instead of one especially when none of them can help with a preliminary valuation note for their client as a pointer? I'm sure theres a good enough reason for couple of the segments but would have thought EOR derisking would get the ball rolling at least for that segment with some hard numbers based off net backs and wti sensitivities. Anyways will leave it with PG as he knows best given he's the biggest shareholder...
All IMO dyor
Good evening everyone , i second Nicodemus's thoughts, i could say frantically, but very close to in relation to moving our pennies into isa's before end of year, nearly finished moving this years allowance, but dreading the thought of a hefty rns dropping whilst funds are in limbo between fund and share accounts and isa's....can't get past a two day delay as not enough spare funds to cover in meantime.....and the same to do again in a months time.......will be wizened and grey by then.
Have been monitoring Char (recently held but not now) and they are buzzing along......bit i have been musing on is.......is there a small conflict between us and them re gas sales.....how much gas does morocco actually need and would the pipeline from morocco to europe actually be able to support 2 large finds going through it,...pretty basic stuff i know, but has been playing on my dreams of untold wealth,along with lots of Becks and odd bottle of lansom to celebrate.
Gla
And thanks to Mr Sunak
Bdt
Hi Matt,
Good post.
I have my views on the topic of PRD's IR.
They are the views of a Monday morning quarter-back, as are those who take a different viewpoint. PG picks the strategy, one way or t'other.
I have been buying PRD stock for quite some time now, despite my views on the IR strategy, so that should show that I am committed to this great company. And whether my views on IR are right or wrong does not matter, provided the company executes to the mission plan,
Which, it seems to me, they are doing.
So any comments made by me or those of similar ilk (though I cannot speak for them) about the IR ****-up should not be taken in any way to indicate any lack of belief in this great company.
Hi CLT, please allow me to fill in some possible holes in your knowledge.
My understanding is that PG will run a tight ship re Cost controls. Therefore once a CSS EOR Project is signed PRD will employ a Reservoir Engineer on a Temporary basis, once the main portion of the calculations are complete, engineers on the ground will be utilized re any CO2 injection at the Well Head(s) with Down hole data transmission, real time back to our Server. Minimizing ongoing Staff costs.
Obviously it is possible a good Reservoir engineer might cover more than 1 CO2 well head design, especially on the same field with similar properties.
You can see that PRD can quickly rollout numerous projects, without the requirement to add permanent staff, we would probably insist on money front loaded in any contract, to cover the long lead time items, that can be quite expensive.
Then we sit and wait, tweak the pressures to match the desk top engineering/modeling, until we start to increase our production numbers, with the balance of the costs recovered, prior to any split in profits.
Any CO2 subsidy would be agreed and split as negotiated - icing in the cake.
Do not forget the estimate of 4 BILLION barrels of oil could be recovered from old legacy fields in just Trinidad, utilizing CCS EOR, which would take 109 years if we could increase EOR production to 100,000 bpd. Subject to enough carbon capture.
It is a beautiful business model, funded by the oil Co, possibly with T&T Govt offering CCS payments, providing work and tax revenue for 3-4 generations.
I am quite sure PG is working on a proof of concept CONTRACT, that everyone will have to sign, knowing PRD have the CO2 Rights, and our business is aligned with Massey and T&T Govt.
I am still buying shares in readiness for news on 3 fronts.
Have you been sticking pins your Flagstaff doll again Sefton?
I'm honestly happy for PRD to stay quiet until after start of the new financial year so the family can load up ISAs. PRD is going to be so big I'll be clearing all PRD out of Fund & Share accounts, don't want to be taxed in order to pay universal credit to unemployed Cornish fishermen..
So, it's irrelevant for me whether as you say Flagstaff are useless or as I believe, they are playing cunningly and quietly under Paul's orders, As long as they keep a low one for the next five weeks..
I think (i.e. my view) it is a little too early to be shouting from the rooftops. We have pilot in T&T, no confirmed resources through drill success in Morocco, and nothing concrete at present in Ireland. Lots of potential yes, but maybe nothing that PG wants to promote yet. Maybe that will change if Morocco hits, but in comparison to some shares I have, PRD/PG actually issues a decent number of detailed RNS's and gives plenty of interviews. I'm happy with the current approach. Everyone is entitled to their views, and I'm just putting my perspective, not trying to convince or 'shout down' anyone. I like this discussion board, there is good civil debate, which is healthy. Good luck all.
CT,
Some members of the Choir, who are pretty committed, insightful and well-researched take the view that, broadly, the SP is just going to be reflection of the crystaliised value of the assets once sold. So any share price movements along the way are pretty much irrelevant.
There is a considerable degree of merit to those views and they are espoused by some people who are pretty impressive and certainly committed to the cause.
The point of departure, as far as I am concerned, is why it has to be binary - an either/or.
Surely making a little bit of IR effort and doing some degree of explanation as to how special PRD actually is could only have upside?
Standing defiant at the wider investor universe and telling them that it is their duty to understand you when you have no real effort to tell them much about you is, in my view, a sub-optimal strategy.
Hi Tim,
I entirely agree with you.
But be very careful on this subject.
You can easily incur the wrath of some members of the Choir on the matter of IR, where they believe it is being handled excellently. And you may be accused of voodoo for suggesting otherwise.
It is not entirely impossible that they are right and that there really is a deeply thought through strategic plan to keep PRD under the radar screen because of sensitive negotiations going on in each of the 3 key pillars.
Whether it is a deliberate strategy or just a cluster-****, I do not know.
Though you would not need to be Sherlock Holmes to guess where I stand.
Either way, PRD seems committed to that route and the proof of the strategy will ultimately out in the SP.
At some point.
Hi Sefton - not sure how not having a broker note is helpful. New investors might think there is nothing special in the company if there's no one bothered to cover the company, especially if you want the market cap to grow which is basically a function of how well known the company is and it's value proposition. I would think having a price target with sum of parts valuation anchors investors sentiment and can underpin market caps in micro caps and possibly put a floor on the market cap if the market knows what the current value is and potential value could be post derisking of say Morocco or IE prospects.
As you say it's probably the case of PRD waiting around for the market to reflect it's true value based on proven and potential value on its own or PRD gets out there via brokers and sells the story of transformational value creation via the 3 segments. I'd choose the second option any day. You see around the market where absolute junk and pigs with a lipstick stocks are promoted to kingdom come, by brokers or their IRs. While some of the real alpha generating plays are dislocated because they don't want to evolve in a new social media investment world where majority of the investors choose to press buy or sell button based on what they research on Twitter or other platforms. Platform culture is what matters for value creation in micro caps if no other broker or big ir firm is fighting your corner for the investor £s. Rest assured Asset value creation will win out at the end...
All IMO dyor
Hi Tim,
I have always been of the view that the CCS/EOR would be a fantastic spin-out, given that it is a relatively pure play on the green angle and I definitely agree that the valuation multiples would likely be very attractive.
I am not at all privy to the thinking of the leadership team of PRD but I would hope and expect that they have looked at the options here, preferably advised by a decent investment bank.
As regards the broker note, you and me are not alone in the frustration there. Some of this BB (who are well-informed and experienced and otherwise very sane) seem to believe it is part of a well thought through IR strategy (ie to have none).
I myself am not convinced by that argument.
Lancy- "Capitalising upon this proven, fully integrated, working business model, expertise, and the exclusivity of liquid CO2 supply by introducing a fee-paying and profits-sharing service under the commercial model established by the Company for Inniss-Trinity CO2 EOR, is now a practical near-term objective of the Company. Five in-country operators and two international State oil companies have made initial exploratory approaches to assess suitability of CO2 EOR for some of their producing, mature, oil field assets." so valuation will also include exclusivity of co2 supply along with contracts. In Recent malcy interview, PG mentioned economics of one co2 project so based on that assuming a profit of 1.5 mn at $50 wti per project and assuming 8 projects you have a profit of $12 mn per year and let's say ebitda of $15 MN per year and at 4.5x times ebitda would value the segment at $67 million? assuming PG values it that way and not just project costs and EOR experience? It would make sense to get upto 8 projects and get a valuation of $60 mn or so and then sell it as a standalone business?
Maybe PG can spin off the co2 EOR segment into a green IPO and it will be valued at multiples of what PRDs market cap is today?! Such is the market sentiment towards green businesses today!
Sefton - agree. Enough content here and Twitter to get a decent note out. Still don't understand why the house brokers Optiva and the another one don't provide the additional service to PRD? Such a note can easily be marketed to wider clients by the brokers, even smaller ones maybe like Mirabaud, finncap etc. Might come up with a decent price target that can be marketed to wider clients. Surely there are those investors who look at what's the average analyst price target on a stock vs where it's trading at the moment I e. Upside?
All IMO dyor
Hi Tim,
The broker note thing is, I think, a complex one. Though I entirely agree with you that a decent broker note would probably do wonders for the SP.
The reality is that the big houses (Goldman, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, etc) will not cover a tiny stock like PRD. So, it falls to the boutiques. Some are actually quite good and others are pretty laughable.
But for the boutique brokers they will look at this and see very little real volume ("churn"), no matter what the quality of the research they write. That is partially because PRD is so small (currently), partially because it is in an unloved sector, O&G and partially because it is unusually tightly held (PG and the Choir).
So a boutique is unlikely to deploy a decent analyst (and there are some very good ones) to a stock like this - unless the crib-sheet is very high quality and done for them (in other words, they are the disseminator of the information, rather than the actual generator of said information).
There has been enough very high quality stuff written on this BB that any half decent editor at a half decent IR firm could panel-beat it into a broker's note that would look as good as if it had been written by Terry Smith himself.
...perchance to dream.....
cluelesstim..... the following was tweeted by David Marshall a few days ago in respect of Inniss Trinity.
https://twitter.com/dmarshall_uk/status/1365263466567774212?s=21
Trinidad is less understood but equally as exciting
1st proj. Innis Trinity:
Tax reform & netback increase from $10 to $15-25 (WTI $50) = total netback in range of £49-73.5m (net) cover MCap several times
WTI now $60+
More projects inc.
Do we know roughly when PG thinks would be the best time to monetize it? I.e. Will we hear a lot of project additions to the segment before he puts up for sale sign or do we scale it and sell it for higher price and possibly a bit later? I think in one of the interviews he mentioned 2022 (might be wrong on this?)...
Morocco gas prospects has been valued decently with NPV calculations through CPR but does anyone have any idea what the NPVs like for co2 EOR business segment if its to be offloaded? Does anyone have any estimates they have worked with, different from the way I did last time which was pretty crude and possibly off the mark?
Also I've not seen any price target for PRD by any brokers, any reason we Don't have them on board especially when we are main market listed?