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Its not naivety...holding back information to scaffold a share price is a dangerous game...in past RNS's the company have disclosed that there are on going discussions with third parties which may or not lead to something...nothing concrete but keeping the market informed...so why then when there is something more concrete would it be wise to hold it back??
Hello Blackdogstaff..... In Edinburgh this weekend with the missus. Tickets for the match are an eyewatering £400+ each so it will be a cosy local pub . Agree with you about Sky, maybe a cheap firestick and a iptv subscription? Try Designeriptv.shop.
Signing any onward agreement is a separate piece of news to the results of the latest operations - that is what was expected at some point after 62 days from the start. There are also always two parties to any signed agreement and one side unilaterally delaying signing for no apparent reason is never a good sign to the other party. There will always be myriad factors to consider how and when to finalise agreements coming from both sides.
Not wishing to create unrest/arguments on this excellent Bb ....but surely Pg can delay "signing" any T&t agreements to coincide with any relevant Guercif news, that way he's not withholding market sensitive news.... Still like to see some update though Gla Bdt
Good morning Capitalidea, thank you for that, i had seen it somewhere but internet search brought no results....makes sense now :) Still trying to get to grips with people selling off when results are still a long time away, thought people would buy into and after spud and take a gamble on when to sell(nearer results date) but what do i know ......apart from seeing my pennies disappearing every day.....ah well, another day has started, another day closer, and another day without elusive T&t updates, am convinced Pg is saving them in case drill doesn't work out or waiting until just before AGM.....either way, it's something i have been looking forward to... Gla Bdt
Independence not mutually exclusive. "The difference between mutually exclusive and independent events is: a mutually exclusive event can simply be defined as a situation when two events cannot occur at same time whereas independent event occurs when one event remains unaffected by the occurrence of the other event." As the trap intervals are so different I think it is reasonable to assume independence. 90.55% chance that at least one layer is successful is correct. Also, on page 10 of the July 2020 presentation, it says "all intervals have GRF-1 gas shows" GLA
To illustrate further. You toss a coin four times what are the chances of never getting a head. The chance of each toss getting a head is 50% likewise the chance of getting a tail is also 50%. There are 16 possibilities (2 x 2 x 2 x 2) of which only one results in all tosses being a tail. So the answer is 15 out of 16 that at least one of the tosses is a head which is 93.75%. That is 100% less 6.25% being (50% x 50% x 50% x 50%).
Blackdogtaff, In answer to your question - You have to look at the chance of each target having no gas and multiply the odds together to arrive at the chances of all targets being unsuccessful. So that would be 37% x 43% x 66% x 90% which equals 9.45% that all are unsuccessful. Deduct that from 100% and that means the chance of at least one layer being successful is 90.55%. That assumes that the chances are mutually exclusive. So if the first target is unsuccessful that it doesn’t reduce the chance of the other targets being successful etc etc. Hope this helps.
From the figures you quoted. Your failure figure is correct. Though I have no idea if it's as simple as that! Fyi from those same figures, the chances of ALL holes being good are 1.2% I don't know where you got the figures from though. Strikes me that if you prove one hole, the chances of any of the others improves considerably. But then I really don't know what I'm talking about. Happy to be corrected, knowledge is power.
Good evening everyone .....i have seen the cos for Guercif, oh and congratulations to Pg et al for bringing rig on time and good luck in next couple of weeks... Got a question about COS.... I fully understand the percentages for each "target" but cant figure out this equation... Taken off ADVFN board.
: So, based on the published CoS, chance all four targets fail = 37% x 43% x 66% x 90% = 9.45% Or, put another way, chance of at least one target being successful = 90.55%
To me, first target is 63% Second 57% Third 34% Fourth 10%.. So using rough maths 2in 3 1in2 1 in 3 1 in 10
So how does it work out that "chance of at least one target being successful = 90.55%" Have seen the equation somewhere but can't find it.... Putting it simply, to me... I drill in Guercif.....i miss/didn't find target 1....chance of me hitting target 2 is 1 in 2, i miss target 2, but chance of hitting target 3 is still 1 in 3 etc.... Hope anyone can post equation. On seperate note....British lions are due to give Jaoan a good mauling next Saturday.....but all the tour Tests are on sky tv.....grrrrr....i refuse to pay for it as sky sport is mostly football orientated and will not contribute to their vast prima donna wages..... Sorry for off topic. ...18 days ish .....never know we may see a rise in sp by then :) Gla Bdt