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I got tipped off by a wizard to buy this morning so I did, first time I've ever seen the graph but it do be looking like a juicy entry
'pennies dropping' !............. :)
High teens/20's to 5p 'pennies dropping'.................. !
All the best (done dat already......... :()...
my own copy has noted ...with my yellow highlighting...
the Papers which I have studied and to which Schumacher refers in that Paper...
Might there soon be the inexorable sound of 'pennies dropping' !
...I had not read your prior post...
Clearly, you have already found the Paper
if you want...
why not contact me via Twitter
and I will send you over to you the Schumacher 2010 Indonesian Petroleum Symposium Paper
that I had mentioned in a recent post
no problem if not
This from Dietmar (Deet) Schumacher1 and Luigi Clavareau, 2014
Geochemical Exploration in Deserts of North Africa and Middle East: Strategies, Methods, and Exploration Case Histories*
and Strategies for Success.
GRH referenced Dietmar Schumacher...
in his excellent Research Paper as presented in 2010 to The Indonesian Petroleum Symposium,
the correlation between hydrocarbon evidence at surface and success in finding commercial hydrocarbons below.
Here it is, well worth the read.
I echo the thanks to ZV.
It’s easy to forget that the information we’ve gleaned over many weeks is by no means easily accessible to newcomers.
That is *your* conclusion. Whats certainly true is that PIs selling out now have no shares, so cant profit from any rise in SP when it comes. Whether that makes the F'ing retar*ds is really a question for the person in question to ask themself.
Paul is just getting on with drilling and testing.
Make of it what you will. The info is all there to read/research.
A nice wave of buys going through atm :)
So, my take away from your post is that our Man@Prd has basically released a RNS resulting in a drop in share price, whilst shrugging his shoulders and concluding that any shareholders selling out at a loss, is a F****** Ret**** and deserves to lose their investment?
Again a bit strong maybe, but essentially so??
For the avoidance of doubt, regarding my motivation, I've averaged down quite heavily .
What an excellent post! Thank you.
It summed up and distilled the available information very clearly and concisely. It must have taken a lot of time and skill.
Posts such as that are very necessary on the BB for several reasons.
One is that it reminds even the most diehard shareholders of the actual facts of the situation and why one is invested (otherwise, as Micktrick says, one can easily be distracted by fools).
The second is that it is invaluable to potential outside (new) buyers of shares, who probably wouldn't have the time to go through reams of postings on here and who would not have been around the BB long enough to be able to spot who makes sense and who is justing spouting drivel (though it would not usually take too long to work that out).
This sort of concise, yet detailed summary is precisely the sort of information that should be getting into the hands of influencers (the compilers of the AJ Bell newsletter, for example) who have serious reach, especially into the non specialist O&G investor market.
Having read and re-read your excellent posting, and probability-weighted pretty much every line item, I remain, FWIW, totally happy happy with my PRD shreholding - but thoroughly irritated at where the SP is and the shambolic mis-steps that have led to that.
good post Zeus, if I might say so...
very good summary...thank you
Schoell nails it...
again ...posters should PLEASE let that (seemingly simple but )
compelling fact roll around in their heads
Shaikan has indeed proved to be one of the top onshore oil discoveries of the last 25 years (as mentioned in my 2011 post...kindly copied extensively on this BB by Kasjohn)
Do I think Guercif could prove to be the gas equivalent?
I would simply NOT be here if I thought otherwise
Zeusvalhallah, Thank you for putting in words so eloquently what all us shareholders have been muttering under our breath and knowing, and for spending your "day of rest" (i'm not religious) and taking the time and effort to tap it all out, now we can see it in it's entirety without cross referencing Rns's etc.
Great post ZV,
Wish I could have put something like that together.
I’m m too easily distracted by fools .
Im just going to put this here again as it seems (?!) that some people may not have read it...
TGB-2 target successfully reached according to pre-drill prognosis.
Higher log resistivity and dry gas readings in TGB-2 unit over a gross interval of 75 metres despite significant increase in mud weight required whilst drilling.
Perforating and testing warranted to evaluate commercial flow potential.
Further evaluate potential pay thicknesses and quality for input into MOU-4 Target upside prospective resources estimates.
MOU-1 to MOU-4 Target Seismic modelling: MOU-1 validated the pre-drill seismic "bright spot" anomaly.
MOU-1 will help calibrate MOU-4 Target seismic "bright spots" to adjust a final well location to appraise the MOU-1 drilling results.
Preliminary seismic re-correlation of the TGB-2 objective to the MOU-4 Target confirms that MOU-1 successfully proved up and substantially de-risked the MOU-4 Target.
MOU-4 Target: Updated CPR incorporating MOU-1 results
MOU-1 preliminary results have enhanced the P10 Case for MOU-4 Target prospective gas resources by identifying a potential structural/stratigraphic closure of up to 60 kms².
Updated CPR to reflect new positive information on potential area of trap.
Compressed Natural Gas Study: Presence of dry gas in MOU-1 reduces development costs for CNG.
Facilitates commercial discussions with off-takers of gas in Morocco in relation to first right of refusal for potential future MOU-1 has confirmed the basis for a proposed step-out well for the MOU-4 Target - the location for which is not covered by the current EIA.
a) a well-document and well known gas and oil bearing structure, producing thermogenic dry gas from a source, migrating up and outwards, the limit of which we are measuring/may have measured, with step-out wells to finalise and confirm the extent of the play.
b) upcoming perforating and testing of a cased well which we have been TOLD has high resistivity and high mud weight. You dont test a duster - wtf are people talking about this being a duster for?
c) Sands that are right for thermogenic gas migration
d) Double confirmation of a kitchen - not just from this data (which will be updated soon) but also from previous seismic datasets, and now drill data!
5) A company with no debt with a STONKING acreage
6) Lonny B, who has come on Board FOR. A. REASON. PEOPLE. !!
7) Trin increasing pressures again, and (I think) the company being pretty open about the interest and buzz that CO2 injection has brought to them.... cash flow and maybe even a sale of assets late this (?) or early-mid (?) next year.
8) Repeat - a stonking acreage with a fairly clear update about whats found.
For 4.7 pence...
No. debt. 75% ownership. And the above for Four. Point. Seven....... PENCE.
Fill your boots I say. Because there wont be stairs going up, it will be a rocket straight up.
Let the derampers try their b
Would also add the following for better understanding,
Gas moves from the source to the reservoir /trap/fault and then migrates .
A criterion to determine which gases are indigenous (not migrated) is the geochemical correlation of maturity parameters of the gas and the environment at which the natural gas has been found (Schoell, 1983).
Gas needs carrier beds to migrate. The biggest problem for E&P companies is that many carrier beds are below seismic resolution.
Seismic’s should be treated as models not data. Drilling gives us the data.
Migration cannot continue unless the trap is filled to capacity or leak/spill point.
Mass balance calculations suggest that up to 10% of a gas generated in a particular reservoir may undergo vertical or lateral migration (Barker, 1979).
Hope that helps
Good evening seabright, Grh, sefton ....everybody....right, trying to get a handle on this thermogenic gas ....
Way i see it is similar to a hand(deep kitchen) turned palm up with fingers (cracks/fissures /faults bent upwards and tips of fingers are the shallower traps, Is that how its configured?
Been thinking about the migration of gas being predominantly VERTICAL(GRH post) and mou1 being a couple of kilometres sw of mou4, would the thermogenic gas travel that far horizontally or would upward seepage occur along the way? Not trying to be negative but trying to understand....
Another question that needs to be asked, when is mou1 being tested, permeability, flow test etc....and how long does it take?
And sorry to keep banging on about this......but come on Pg ....give us some idea whats going on....anywhere!!
YES...hydrocarbon ENERGY is vital
As I have been banging on about seemingly FOREVER
I referenced it way back in my 2011 post which Kasjohn kindly reposted on here
There are many ways to consider the relationship between changes at surface
and hydrocarbon energy below
One commentator (not one of my colleagues) was Dietmar Schumacher...
in his excellent Research Paper as presented in 2010 to The Indonesian Petroleum Symposium
he tracked... over 2700 examples...
the correlation between hydrocarbon evidence at surface
and success in finding commercial hydrocarbons below
The findings were startling to many
But his findings were in same ballpark as the tech I had referred to consistently over many years
BTW...the migration of hydrocarbons is PREDOMINANTLY VERTICAL
and it is at a NANO level...
(of course, there are obvious ... macro level ... seeps
and micro seeps
but science has moved on)
A fact totally recognised more recently by many
including the late great Adnan Samarrai
Very interesting post, Seabright (and thanks, it is always good to see value-added contributions on the BB).
I am nowhere near clever enough to really iunderstand the implications of your posting (though I will work through it and do as much research as I can - but a donkey will never win the Grand National).
The real experts here (Wacky, GRH, TT-T, MEM, Adon, mickytrick and others)would be far better placed to opine.
But I would observe, this is precisely why PRD needs to appoint a decent corporate finance house/broker - so that there is some credible, curated opinion put out on this company. In one single broker note, not spread across multiple BB postings.
I am the first to applaud the brilliant posting here and to appreciate the huge work, time and effort that went into them.
But that only emphasises the need for a proper, detailed boker report - not a broker note from some chicken**** house that was probably assembled by an intern.
PRD has to do itself some favours and get a decent corporate finance house/broker on board and a decent IR advisor.
That may just be my opinion - and I am not especially tolerant of fools - but the SP situation speaks volumes way beyond my opinion.
The Elephant in the kitchen … thermogenic gas migration from an active hydrocarbon generating system.
From the RNs issued on the 6th July
“ evidence of thermogenic gas migration supports in this part of the Guercif Basin the pre-drill geological interpretation for a deep gas "kitchen" connected to shallower reservoirs by large faults.”
This is significant and missed by most investors …Why ? You need to understand the difference between biogenic and thermogenic gas.
Biogenic hydrocarbon gases are those produced as a direct consequence of bacterial activity and are usually generated in shallower depths .Typically, generation of biogenic gas is with fine-grained sediment due to its characteristically higher initial organic content
Thermogenic gas migration usually occurs at depths exceeding 1,000m ( Floodgate and Judd 1992)
These hydrocarbon gases are produced from higher temperature and pressure and involves thermal degradation and cracking of organic matter(Schoell, 1988).
This can result in considerable upward migration of the gas.
Fault related structures serve as conduits for migration of thermogenic gas. In common with other MAJOR thermogenic gas generation areas GUERCIF shares the same features such as Faults, vents , seeps, diapirs, and mud volcanoes.
This was referenced on the CPR pathfinder report 2012 page 16.
“Geochemical analyses indicate thermogenic gas reaching the surface in areas of thick Neogene sediments suggesting that salt diapirism and recent Rif tectonics have resulted in some seepage to the surface. This confirms an active hydrocarbon generating system in the area.”
Some of it buried down to at least 7kms.
Hydrocarbon generation intensity /energy is the most important geochemical factor to estimate large and middle gas fields.