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Its quite straight forward. PRD have released enough information to be able to make a reasonable assessment there is a considerable SP-to-value disparity currently. Buying at this level seems like a rare gift. I have a considerable holding for a small PI and I am confident of a multi bag.
The dots are there. Joining them spells £££ signs.
Has to be a defining post on this BB...well said
((A large part of my own quoted ...FULL MAIN MARKET...company's business
was about identifying wrongly priced assets ... buying low...selling high
There were many ...
but buying a famous ... London...chain of estate agents for a few hundred thousand £
and then selling it a couple of years later at MANY £ millions was a classic example
A HEAVILY contested takeover of East of Scotland Onshore PLC ...a quoted investment trust...was another...
even though many in the City said it could not be done))
There is a group of ‘skimmers’ on here ...
trying to make their meagre living by trying to move SPs in one direction or another...
‘skimming’ the differences
It’s an old game / very low rent way IMO to try to earn a living ...
but nowadays afforded a platform via the se message boards
and the regrettable fact (sorry)
that many small shareholders have scant idea about what they are truly invested in
BTW...those 'skimmings' never amount to much money (spreads generally win over time )
I was not going to mention this ...
but why not...strictly no names
I am WELL aware
that there are quite a few bigger/ very bright/well informed /experienced investors
who have taken ...and are taking ...CONSIDERABLE stakes in PRD...
and I am talking about several/many millions of shares each
They are the clever ones IMO
It was always thus...
is transferred FROM the less well informed TO those who KNOW their stuff
And FROM the impatient TO the patient
Please DYOR etc etc
Well said Sefton.
The fact that share prices don’t necessarily reflect true value - well that’s the whole game, isn’t it? That’s why we’re here on a message board devoting our time to the story of PRD.
A lot of us here believe there could be a monumental share price vs value discrepancy to be taken advantage of right now.
Your statement " price is perhaps the ultimate indicator of company health" is monumentally stupid, even by your lamentably low standards.
It is sometimes true that price (SP) reflects VALUE.
For much of the time, it does not, either to the negative or the positive.
Soros (I am no fan of that individual) spotted a price arbitrage in 1992 when the Pound fell out of the ERM. He took that muppet, Norman Lamont for a few billion there. A classic case of mis-pricing.
Nikola, the laughable US EV stock is, arguably, worth nothing. Yet, even after the declines and the indictment for fraud of the founder, the thing still has a market cap of $4 billion. A classic case of mis-pricing.
John Paulson, the great US hedge fund manager, spotted back in 2006 that the whole US sub-prime mortage market was monumentally over-priced. It took till 2008 for the whole thing to blow up (Krakatoa scale) and he made a killing, having spotted the mis-pricing. A classic case of mis-pricing.
Sam Zell, the great US financier, made a fortune buying up distressed real estate in the 70's and then selling off at massive premiums in the boom 80's. A classic case of mis-pricing.
Hostile takeovers were always predicated on mis-pricing in the market. (usally the SOTP - Sum of the Parts - VALUE was greater than the SP at the time).
I happen tobelieve PRD is currently chronically mis-priced (being in my view, way, way south of true VALUE) but that is actually irrelevant to the point.
The point is, whatever view (opinion) one takes on PRD, the price is very seldom ever a reflection of true VALUE.
It can be north, it can be south. But it is very seldom right.
And that is why there is a market - some think the price is too low, some too high.
And the SP is, at any given moment, just a reflection of the relative balance of sentiment -at that MOMENT (time is a long time.....).
So, Splice, don't spout transparent tosh.
Given how many variables are unknown, and given the decision to move ahead with testing, all the figures can reliably tell us is "potentially commercial quantities". Beyond that would largely be speculation... That's all I would expect at this stage before further testing though.
The Splice girls are back, posh splice, sporty splice, ginger splice, the other two, and now introducing the brand new member...upmyowna**e splice. What a band! At least with Chesha there's a strange sort of humour mixed in with the madness.
Pastabelly...love it. I'm trying to learn all this stuff as well, but my heads spinning and I've retired to the wine bottle. Good luck with the BP job application!
If I watch any more YouTube videos on mud-logging btw, I'll be qualified enough to bulls**t my way into a new job for BP!
That was in response to the 2-3% point you made.
And now I'm driving myself insane trying to get a definitive answer to that question. ;o))
Then I keep coming back to WTF don't they just answer it for us.
Fine. So are you going to tell me what that "very something wrong" is, exactly?
Pastabelly - part of the problem is even now, there is no clear statement of mass appeasement. When they tell us they have completed the well, and when they tell us they are testing for commerciality, then any ordinary person would conclude that means the analysis supports the possibility, if not probability of a decent find.
To get more information you need to be quite technical. You have to do work to find out if 2-3% of a gas is good. You have to know what mud weighting means and what increased pressure may tell you. Many on here have shared their understanding of those and it supports a bright future, but the average investor won't look that deeply. In effect, once a share price has gone into a tail-spin like this does, there is mass fear. You get PI's simply looking at the graph and thinking no thank you. There is also real doubt as to the motivation of a director's sells which, if you don't analyse the technical data, might have been a signal of doubt in PRD's future.
When in a situation like this, you would expect the share price to stagnate until (a) there is concrete news or (b) a time scale for some concrete piece of action is in place so that the masses start pushing up the price with more crowd thinking and FOMO etc... Smart money will be getting in now as the risk:reward is really quite something and there is sign of that in the trading. There have been some really substantial buys in recent weeks with a large proportion of the sells being small. Yes there are chunky sells too, but it seems the bigger bets are more in favour of buy vs sell. That points to the fear amongst the crowd too.
What utter nonsense. Share price is a terrible indicator of company health - did you really think Gamestop was in that great a shape?
Share price is an indicator of mass sentiment, something which is heavily susceptible to herd mentality and both positive or negative hysteria. It is only sometimes reflective of the underlying value of a company, but even on the most widely traded and solid blue chip companies it is only a reflection of expectation and the market is replete with examples of those expectations being spectacularly wrong.
Pasta, price is perhaps the ultimate indicator of company health. There is undoubtedly something very wrong if the price of any share drops 75% in such a short time. Anyone who tells you different is kidding themselves
Is SDX a possible Gas offtake partner for Predator if it works proximity wise in Morocco?
SDX have spudded a very exciting prospect in Egypt per today's RNS and not reflected at all in SP...
The HA-1X exploration well on the Hanut prospect spudded on 4 August. HA-1X is targeting a Basal Kafr El Sheikh prospect at approximately 5,200 feet TVDSS. The Hanut prospect is estimated to contain gross unrisked mean recoverable volume of 139bcf (23.2 million boe) with a 33% chance of success. SDX has a 55% working interest in the well and the Company's audited working interest 2P reserves as at 31 December 2020 equated to 11.1 million boe. The well is expected to take approximately one month to drill, and the Company will update the market on completion of drilling (and if successful, testing) operations.
Cashflow from Sd (Egypt) is $13m
Cashflow from Morocco $13m
Cashflow from oil production in WG is $6m.
Cash in bank US$9m and no debt.
Mkt cap under GBP30m
Yeah I remember that conversation, but seriously, now that we've had plenty of time to reflect and digest??
PB - apparently the lack of the words 'pleased', 'discovery' or 'commercial'.
So what is it specifically in the RNS of 6July, that resulted in the share price dropping so much?
So MOU1 has found a trap in the TGB2 sands that could be anywhere between 50-188bcf in size (according to estimates). You could call this on it’s own fairly big/massive/huge. Only the testing will determine this size and prove if it is commercial.
The other ‘trap’ is the TGB2a sand (or MOU4 prospect) which was originally defined as 42km2 but could be up to 60km2. Who knows what size this is and has the true possibility to be a monster/leviathan/great big f*** off trap or however you wish to describe it. Only the drilling of MOU4, once a location is finalised, will prove this one way or another.
I believe there will also be shallow bcf ‘bubble’ traps similar to SDX all over the acreage. The seepage of gas and hydrocarbons in the basin would suggest this (topic discussed recently). Finding these however at this time would be less important than knocking on the monsters door.
presumably not supposedly.
So, in short, we're sat on a giant f*** off Trap, and the point of Mou4 is just to absolutely confirm such?
And if it doesn't, were supposedly just sat on lots of small traps similar to SDX next door??
So going back to GRHs original post other locations (or bright spot locations) may also be linked in a similar way to the TGB2a sands.
Such as sands at possible drill locations MOU6 or MOU3. Of course there may also be more as yet undocumented.
TTT these were PGs comments below. It gets confusing when people talk in MOU1 or MOU4 as these are locations. The targets themselves are the sands. In this instance TGB2 and TGB2a. Where the ‘bright spot’ is the TGB2 sands and the MOU4 target is the TGB2a sands. And from the pre drill presentation and report it can be seen that TGB2a is below TGB2. If anyone is having difficulty understanding this the presentation and report are best being read first.
“MOU-1 delivered a result that allowed us to de-risk the MOU-4 Target whilst unexpectedly validating the pre-drill seismic "bright spot", related to the presence of gas, as being attributable to the western limit of the MOU-4 Target and not an isolated target as previously interpreted above what was thought to be the pre-drill MOU-4 Target equivalent section."