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Sound , I understand you point of view and thank you for your input . But if you are going to keep repeating the same identical rhetoric then it is of no value to me. I am not interested in seeing a battle of words and ego it’s tedious to read. I note your are invested so can I also see a balanced post about predator and how you view the 3 different business ventures . Thank you !
Check out Sound's other posts. Only made 116, odd for someone clear not a neophyte in regards to share dealing. Will have undoubted burnt his bridges under another username.
Honestly, ignore him completely, like a naughty child it will hurt him far more. Tragic attention seekers convince themselves that they are having sport but actually, they are lonely individuals desperately wishing to be noticed.
Sound - you come across as a right chip cob, to use some fresh rhyming slang - it’s boring now the whole agenda of suggesting that the BB is made up of rampers and sheep. Most posts that one could consider to appear rampy are provided with credible and accessible information to back up at least the workings for the valuations, unlike your stuff. All anyone here wants is balanced discussion backed up with some solid rationale. This far, apart from some biased personal agenda, you’ve offered nothing. I was a vocal opponent to some earlier CO2 EOR viewpoints (not related to PRD’s excellent position in Trinidad) and indeed now CluelessTim has posted with rationaly explained logic in relation to his investment/trading strategy. Neither were chased off the board. This BB tolerates and embraces differing opinion that is well reasoned and explained, are you capable of achieving that?
Soundreason is your textbook bb chump.
Zero factual input. Zero morals. Zero balls.
Sound with no reason please can you put together cogent reason/rational for your alternate view?
I and am sure others would welcome a well thought out rational with supporting evidence - even in handful chunks as long as they stack up to a thoughtful position.
Repeatedly howling at the moon isn't persuasive and won't imo benefit your agenda.
Blissful I've been in basically since the start check if you like I will be hear at the end too! Just warning people and doing my duty to remind all to do research and watch for all the new member who cry tales of wo! If however a new member comes stating facts and wants to talk I'm happy with that.
d i r e c t o r s t a l k
The *************= *************
Yes, I see what your saying about your margin of safety, cluelesstim,.....you are correct, I'm originally here for Trinidad & Corrib South ( https://*************.net/interview-predator-oil-gas-holdings-positive-results-but-corrib-south-could-dwarf-everything ), with Morocco etc as a bonus,....lets hope we are all successful, with our respective strategies.
Wraith - your strategy makes sense as you are in for the trin segment. I'm in for Morocco and if the drill doesn't find commercial gas that opens Guercifs potential, I'd struggle to buy in or keep holding assuming I held through the drill, as my original valuation estimate for my margin of safety I.e. co2 EOR segment had been flawed, given its no new IP ownership for PRD and PRDs exposure doesn't seem to have sizable revenues / fcf flowing through the contracts imo. Having contracts might not be enough until a clear cash flow/revenue impact can be estimated from the specific contract Imo.
On the other hand if PRD hits gas in Morocco, i'd be buying back in irrespective of the price Ill be selling at or buying at or what the opening price would be post drill results. Today's TXP opening price proved my point again, as have kept an eye on opening prices at TXP after discovery announcements( today it opened up c.12% up). In terms of derisking I'd rather take the full profit pre drill when/if given the opportunity rather than let it be exposed to the exploration risk even after taking the initial stake out. Instead can just buy back in short space of time after the drill results knowing it's derisked and will not be dropping and will be underpinned by the drill prospects. It's hard to be completely out of PRD IMO for long. Even for my current holding its easy to be insecure about the rise thinking is it sustainable or just 10-20% traders driving the volumes pre drill, as haven't seen a new major holdings RNS, or any new major shareholder taking a new big position to give confidence in the rise.
As we've seen on this bb over the past few months - nothing changes sentiment like price.
All IMO and could be wrong so always dyor
PRD has been a great share to be invested in to-date, for myself.....I did step out of PRD at the beginning of last year, when I switched most of our oil sector shareholdings into the Gold sector shares,....buying back into Oil sector shares, in the second half of last year, resulting in buying our PRD shareholdings back, in the s/p@4p range (second half of last year),....I will not be stepping right out of PRD again, not at this stage, with Trinidad potential starting to show through.
Zerba - if you reread the post it says am planning to be out pre drill result completely, but not currently out. No one can catch all moves, it's averaging of those moves that matters. Sellers remorse? So if there was a price drop today it would have been reversed and I'd have holders remorse? I don't want st price rise to justify my flawed analysis regarding my margin of safety, that's the whole point and obviously profit booking.
Can always buy back the offloaded part of the main holding if news changes rather than just the sp. Someone suggested it's hard to buy even 1mn odd shares. I'd disagree, imo in the current PRD market liquidity environment can buy and sell easily although in chunks. Few months ago could only buy 500k easily but couldn't sell even 50k at times. And there are so many mid cap opportunities, I'd be surprised if you think market is overvalued.
All IMO and could be wrong so always dyor
Yes, I have also noted our current Market Cap of £45m, cluelesstim,.....been here a long time myself (since PRD cornered CO2 market in Trinidad), that is shaping up very well,....I have top sliced to free PRD shareholdings plus cash profits generated from our PRD shareholdings, positioning for good or bad drill outcome, but still holding reduced PRD shareholdings for drill results,.....personally, I would not want to be right out of PRD, for drill.
So Tim are you out completely? Your post is contradictory.
I'm curious as to where you see a better opportunity to invest your money.
I sense a little sellers remorse?
Wacky - had used similar way of valuing trin segment until reread the following part of the RNS and recalled PG mentioning in recent interview regarding not focusing much on bopd. So it all depends on what sort of fee would we charge for co2 EOR service and any profit sharing depending on exclusivity of co2 supply/ costs of co2 injected rather than a bopd/revenue exposure flowing to bottom line as I had modeled. Hence my drill margin of safety which was trin reduced; "The successful development of the CO2 EOR business in Trinidad allows the business to be valued on the basis of its assets, invested project costs, existing contracts, goodwill and CO2 EOR operational experience."
Asilad- a rising sp is always good, whether profit booking or holding. Why would anyone be scared about some post on a bb, just think it's all bs if you don't agree and trust your own research. The point of my post was to bounce off my thought process to see if I get good challenges from the actual contributors, and see if I'm analyzing incorrectly or might be missing something. One doesn't have to read posts that might challenge certain assumptions, can always filter posts.
And definitely not looking to increase exposure at £40-45 mn + market cap levels - IMO the time to increase exposure to PRD personally was when PRD was around £13 mn market cap levels few months ago, when the margin of safety was big, with almost all the same major news was known as today, minus the recent placing. Of course unless some other big significant news hits, would stick to current plan of being out completely for a short period before drill result, if not sooner.
So happy with the liquidity momentum going into drill as it's less about derisking more about booking all profits before drill result announcement(and IMO it's usually best to be done in market strength rather than weakness). Higher the sp following weeks and months better for us all. We are at an all time high and almost every current shareholder is in profit, that's a big achievement for PRD and PG alongside us shareholders. Most days would have been lucky to get a buy /sell quote for 200k +! I'm still a huge PRD fan and loyal shareholder but IMO would want solid news to give confidence if the rise is sustainable or just speculators causing volatility based off just charts.
Funnily enough, original plan around £13 mn mcap entry few months ago, was to hold entire PRD holding through the drill, if PRDs mcap was still below £25 mn at spud time. So gladly everything since then is bonus without having to be exposed to drill result, given my margin of safety for trin segment could have covered any Morocco downside from £25 mn mcap levels easily vs today's levels when the margin of safety could be a lot lower based on my research. Everyone chooses their entry and exit points, that's what makes it a market.
All IMO and could be wrong so always dyor
Yes, always do Bradley. I feel a little like a stalker but I'm always curious as to their MO when you get someone new, showing little seeds of doubt.
A good lockdown distraction is to try and work.out whether they are cautious cats, pessimistic Eeyore types or serial derampers.
Watch the new accounts as they start to pile in you will see the fomo begin soon as we draw closer to the drilling! But also watch as those trying to spread fear increace! Little tip just read the history of each of those on the bb you will find out who's a true holder and who's a true tree shaker!
of course...I had quite forgotten that!
I might run off a few photocopies of my Michael Caine posts:)
Fearsomely good BB here...for which many thanks to those who contribute
you KNOW who you are
and we know those who are not!
Regarding waterflood in T&T, I remember Columbus/BPC giving it a go in their Goudron field, it only seemed to have very moderate success.
CO2 as you point out helps stimulate the oil improving the chances of recovery.
Great post Wack...as ever...thank you
I thought last year that your figures were a tad light
but it was either going to work or not...( I am informed that ladies cannot be half pregnant)
I still think your numbers are erring on the side of caution...but that is as it should be
Yes...the bit about the licence got my attention in that interview...
as did the likelihood of the TT Government mandating EOR of all field extensions etc...
much might be simple waterflooding ...initially
BUT anyone who has looked at the miscibility point
will understand just HOW good CO2 EOR can be for improving oil viscosity
and hence the ability to extract far more of the thicker oil...
something that simple waterflooding CANNOT do!
in that regard (efficiency of recovery) CO2 EOR is similar to the oil sands deploying steam injection...
BUT the big difference here is the COST/EFFICIENCY...
and of course the sequestration of CO2
Where do you reckon PRD might stand WRT the incentives re CCS?
Would that change your valuation metrics
Good to see were moving in the right direction.
About a year ago I posted a valuation of £50mn for the sale of the Trinidad assets and said we would be giving it away if we sold for a penny less.
I now think with the available information to hand I may have undervalued the project.
(previously posted by another member, packed with info)
If we base the estimates on company published figures and any future contracts would be agreed on similar terms to the current Incremental production sharing contract (IPSC) currently in force with Heritage/BPC you could realise gross returns per annum of :
7500 BOPD x £25.00 (projected profit @ £50 per barrel) x per annum.
I have not included the returns from a full Field expansion at Innis Trinity as cannot confirm if the recoverable amount of 6.8mn barrels are accounted for within the 15000 BOPD forecast.
If they are not included an adjustment would need to be added per annum based on known figures.
Also to be taken into account would be company assets, goodwill, carbon tax but the most important and valuable piece of the company will be probably printed on an A4 sheet of paper stating :
Predator Oil and Gas Trinidad are hereby LICENSED to recover crude Oils through the use of Carbon Dioxide Sequestration.
Paul does mention the License application in the latest podcast and this is the news that I am waiting for, When announced the share price should be well and truly underpinned by this piece of news.
I do realise the figures I have quoted are pure speculation based on the ultimate recovery BOPD in six years time and PRD will be long gone by then so my estimate is based on 10% of future value.
Circa £80mn or 33p per share at todays current share allocation.
AIMHO of course.