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ps: interesting to see if gas price going up is well correlated to ppc share price up movement ( gas has a had a good couple of days and so has ppc s/p for eg....err maybe )
Thanks for your response happy sparrow and the best bulletin boards are a broad church outlining pros and cons.
This is a decent bb, but there are better out there in this sector names imho.
(Save.l is indeed a very tricky share and is that low for fairly good reason, although the latest update is solid enough to justify it going somewhat higher now. .. but this sector sadly remains so out of favour that any gains are extraordinarily hard come by generally, and hard built on or even sustained when they arise.. And where you bet your money is entirely your decision, of course. Good luck with Txp.. hopefully any soon to be implemented SPT changes help it quickly, I like my small Trin.l holding even more off the back of this potential law change and so may add more there in due course. )
I'm still bullish ppc.l on a 6 month view up to 2.75p even on current production guidance and likely poo/g price levels.. and the added bonus here is a pretty much free hit exploration well results in next 2/3 months which could add decently to s/p level too.
Altogether, this company is not now in nearly as bad a place as this s/p suggests imho.. and as that comes clearer in the second half of this year the s/p will come back somewhat, even if slowly dragged kicking and screaming up, including retraces.
Again, this now is ridiculously low at anything under 2p imho
PPC had no real incentive to increase production at the start of this year and use up valuable reserves when the world didn't need or want to pay anything for it. We have been told that Argentina will have used up it's over supply and the US$45 Government Decree level due to demand side factor will start to be implemented from August. This from the Q&E on the web site...... So, I think it’s inevitable that the gas price will go up. I think it’s inevitable that there will be a plan. But the gas plan and how much paid is part of the debate and whether that amount of 3.50 per million BTU is going to paid for accretive gas over and beyond the existing gas production of the company is again subject to debate. I’d rather not comment on that, because the moment there’s no law about it there’s no provision about it and therefore at this moment in time, we are predicated on figures off 2.62 / 2.72 and we are in wintertime. and it’s getting colder. So, it’s probably going to go up. Next year will it go up in our view another. Yes, it will, in our view. Also, in our view, traditional differential between summer and the winter, which was very significant over 100% in previous years will actually erode and it will erode because of the deficit in gas, which is now in our view is inevitable coming in because of the lack of investments now and as Rob has quite correctly said there’s very little drilling activity going on, I believe last week, there was only five drilling rigs being used and all those oil rigs were unconventional, as everyone knows we are solely conventional and we I believe will be one, if not the first company, to start drilling conventional wells again in Argentina, when we start drilling targeted for mid to end of September
Apologies, N2M, for not replying earlier, but only just read your post.
I'm now out, here. I decided to close my 3 new investments (PPC, SDX, TRIN) and add back to my main holding - TXP - which had outstanding news on that same Monday, but little price movement (bought @ 64p). I may buy back here later.
Yes, correct, the guidance was below my 'conservative expectation' of 3500 boepd for year end 2020. The RNS read: 'President is currently projecting Group average production for H2 2020 in the range 3,000-3,400 boepd...' Note this is an average. It suggests to me current production is either below 3000, or could decline below 3000 in H22020 without a successful work programme. The effects of much of the work programme, if successful, will come in the latter part of the year. Even if they achieve a year end production of 4000, the average will only result in 3400 maximum for the H22020 period.
A little disappointing - I was hoping for 3500 minimum year end, with perhaps another 1000 by March. 2021. Too, I had expected much more from the Trafigura alliance to be announced (hopefully that is still to come).
Sorry not be more positive (and on SAVE also - there I felt I should demonstrate a point that had been buried in the accounts so that shareholders weren't misguided - I guess it doesn't make me popular).
Good idea to start exporting oil when domestic demand is low. Otherwise the higher domestic price more favourable.
These H2 estimated outputs are ok but definitely no more than that in my mind, and so todays muted s/p reaction is unsurprising/fair enough to me.
And here's hoping they do deliver as they anticipate.. obviously the new exploration wells could be transformational on top, if we're lucky .. so ok progress generally, at least... and maybe/hopefully more than that too.
( the oil export arrangement, while no doubt useful, is kinda so what to me, not least as the $6 off Brent for the 'privilege' means Transfigura aren't doing them much of a 'favour', i'd guess )
ps; Happy sparrow. predicted the following forward view from his analysis recently and that seems to be a little bullish shout versus todays guidance, but in the broad range all the same. Much appreciated for that analysis/shout HS and might i ask what's your latest thinking off the back of todays RNS ?
''Thus I would now expect a conservative year end guidance to be about 3500 boepd (with some natural decline); with a further 1000 boepd dependent on if the Las Bases development well and EVN exploration well come in on time and as expected (COS of 75%).''
Ive been saying this was a great partnership and i got laughed at. Ill bd the one laughing soon when this explodes in price
Positive news, further de-risking production value.
RNS Number : 0709U
President Energy PLC
27 July 2020
27 July 2020
PRESIDENT ENERGY PLC
("President" or the "Company")
President exports oil from Argentina for the first time
Group production guidance for H2
President Energy (AIM: PPC), the energy company with a diverse portfolio of production and exploration assets focused primarily in Argentina provides an update on sales of oil from its Rio Negro fields in Argentina and guidance on H2 Average Group production.
Export of Oil
Since commencing production in Argentina, President has sold all its oil exclusively in the country at the prevailing domestic price. Now, for the first time, President is exporting some of its oil.
After receiving regulatory consents, President, with the assistance of Trafigura, will export approximately 18,000 barrels of oil by the end of July, with the balance of the Company's production being sold domestically. The value achieved for the exported quantity is projected to be in line with current ICE Brent pricing less US$6. The domestic price for President's Rio Negro July production is US$ 37.54 per barrel, not yet at the US$45 Government Decree level due to demand side factors in Argentina.
Having navigated regulatory mechanisms in relation to this first pathfinder export load, in the coming months further oil exports are expected to follow, always depending on demand factors, thus providing President with another string to its bow for sales of product to end markets.
Group production guidance
President is currently projecting Group average production for H2 2020 in the range 3,000-3,400 boepd, an increase of approximately 30% over the same period last year. The estimated increases in production from the two workovers scheduled to commence by end of August and two new wells scheduled to commence by end of September will only be felt in the latter part of this half year. Of the Group's average production in H2, it is currently anticipated that oil will compromise some 60% of the total.
Glossary
Boepd means barrels of oil equivalent