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Well over my head today. ;-)
It was sarcasm buckeye…
Where has the gold price gone crazy? Kitco showing a 0.5% rise, but still lower than last week...
https://www.kitco.com/gold-price-today-usa/
Gold price has really gone crazy today….1% climb.
I have also had it confirmed from POLY, POLY do not sell to G7 countries, just the weekend trolls trying to spread fear.
@Belgrano - your comment "Think I'd rather trust the Rouble and the Renminbi than the pound right now. although that is a personal viewpoint, both those other currencies are much stronger than the pound or even the dollar. The former are built on solid material and natural reserves while the latter two I''m afraid are based on a mountain of debts."
Exactly what i am saying about the Gold sanctions, high inflation and recessions are periods of currency devaluation, we dont own money as per to say we own currency, by devaluing it you are paying twice as much for the same products in some cases, this keeps the money flowing upwards to those who have set margins on profits. The winners out of this are those at the top and us at the bottom pay heavily, hence the the goverments windfall tax on Oil and Gas to appease the tax paying middle class.
I would be interested what others thoughts are on these Gold sanctions, while it will have an effect on the Russian economy its also likely a way for our own goverments to profit from it, higher spot price on gold is favourable for those who have plenty of it...
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil
Oil price dropping and Gas, this leaves me with some confidence that inflation will start slow soon, we may have a period of inflation stuck at high levels but not going higher and eventually dropping. Next Months Fed announcement mid July on interest rates is key.
yes i agree it was the initial intention of the US, but VP insistance on paying for Gas and Oil through Rouble has caused this inflated Rouble price, now with all major brands pulling out of Russia your average person can buy from abroad much cheaper, according to Russia they are self suffiecient so have no need to buy anything from afar with a strong rouble. The other sanctions also prevent them buying from any Western allied countries.
Russia's income is based on its exports, Grain and Oil\Gas mainly, with a high Rouble this is going to be harder to sell over the borders. The effect on the Rouble was a surprise to everyone inc most financial analyst's, slowing sales and returning reduced profit, the BoP is dropping, Russia also has to offer a discount to sell it to those brave enough to buy it with High Rouble rate, so its an unexpeceted double wammy for Russia when selling.
The Gold sanctions are token at best imo, there is more to this Gold sanction than Ukr war, i am cynical but rightly so when it comes to the US and UK goverments, votes come first.
The only effect the strong ruble has is to kill the value of its exports. They are worth 30-50% less than previously. They are also about to default on their debt which means they cant access capital markets.
Belgrano i dont think you have any clue about currencies. id suggest you stop talking. The US never said it wanted to crash the value of the rouble. As an exporting country that would be good for Russia. So instead they blocked imports to Russia and cut off their access to foreign currencies which meant they couldnt service their debt and their exports have basically halved in value now because they had to put on capital controls. This forced everyone to sell their USD to the central bank which resulted in stealing the value of the USD from its own companies and citizens. It needs those USD because it needs to use USD to buy imported goods from China as nobody in China will take any other currency.
belgrano - "Just like to correct those investors that have already stated that they believe sanctions will be here for a long time."
Thank you for correcting us. But I'm sure you also realise, as has been pointed out here on numerous occasions, that sanctions of some form have been in place since Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 - that's 8 years or so already.
When are you stating that all sanctions will be removed?
(Liz Truss on sanctions: it's surely a transparent negotiating ploy, and probably not even the Russians would naively believe that sanctions would be removed in their entirety. The objective of any rational state threatened by Russia would be to ensure they can't - or have no desire to - attack for the next, say, 50 years or so. That will take time.)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_sanctions_during_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War
If you want the full picture, go here. The first thing you will note is the sanctions started back in 2014 and the 2022 sanctions were the fourth round. Russia has been badly impacted from the start and the latest rounds have only made matters worse. Russia has now been pushed into default. Pretending sanctions are not having an impact is just plain crazy. Russia is holding up the pretense by deflecting to some extent visible impacts by raising pensions and protecting high street food inflation. But the consequences of the sanctions ar filtering through and will be many times worse than the first rounds due to the manufacturing base simply running out o base and raw materials and simple components, lt alone complex components.
Even if the generals call it a day no, it would be weeks before trade sanctions are reversed and many months for supply lines to be restored. If they are ever restored. Whoi going to trut Russia with credit anymore, it will be cash in advance and that cash will be hard currency like dollars and pounds. Even then, many companies will simply not have anything further to do with Russia for years running to decades. It is certainly and permanently of my export list.
@chippyjo
That was in the past. Russia is beginning to realise that too much reliance on the dollar is costing it economically.
Slowly it is finding ways to reduce its dependence on the dollar . This is the reason why Russia decided to get paid in roubles as a first step for its exports
That decision has paid dividends to russia and done exactly what it was meant to and has backfired on the west.
Belgrano, most of Russian budget outlay is in Ruble and income in dollar related goods. Strong ruble doesn’t help Russia one bit. That’s why they’ve been chopping interest rates to try to keep it where it was before this all kicked off.
I challenge you to convert your pension pot, savings and or salary to either Rouble or Renminbi and transfer it a bank account in either of those two nations. Then see how far it goes! You won't.
errr no Newdeal, the stated original intentions of Uncle Sam was to devalue to Rouble, thats why they removed them from swift, and blocked sterling money transactions into Rouble...(which stopped our Divi).
That strengthens the Rouble . You are completely wrong on this one mate. Also dont agree with your second point, but would rather keep focused on subjects that have a bearing on our company. Happy to correspond off board if you wish.
@Belgrano - thats what the West want high Rouble, Russia are mainly an exporters, who is going to want to buy Russia products at an over inflated price with high Roublw? So Russia has to reduce the price which reduces thier income.
I am also convinced this GOLD sanctions is nothing to do with the war, its being painted as punishment for Russia but call me an old cynic but it would not surprise me if those countries wanting it have been hoarding GOLD on the Quiet, they off load the GOLD when its a top price pulling lots of money out of the economies its sold into, demand will be high right now and this straight after massive amounts of quantitive easing during Covid, its a hedge and just a way of moving the money around from pot to pot
Think I'd rather trust the Rouble and the Renminbi than the pound right now. although that is a personal viewpoint, both those other currencies are much stronger than the pound or even the dollar. The former are built on solid material and natural reserves while the latter two I''m afraid are based on a mountain of debts.
"Reliance on the west will not end but will be greatly reduced due to tthe BRICS exchanging their own currencies for goods and creating an internal market."
No it won't.
DEBT
How are these new economies going to service existing debt. Russia has just defaulted. So China is gingto bail out Russia knowing Russia will just default later? And you are expecting sovereign fund to divest dollar based investments and switch to Ruble based??? Are you serious?? If that could have happened, it would have happened before, especially after the credit crunch. Crypto also presented a new base which has been avoided. The dollar may also be the US currency but in financial markets the domestic dollar is treated as separate to the international dollar. And new reserve currency would take decades to establish and switch over to.
This Euroclear payment thing is the same issue the Poly BOD have with dividend payments now and in the future.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-26/russia-defaults-on-foreign-debt-for-first-time-since-1918
And the gold sanction is a proposal isn't it? It is only being discussed and war gamed at the moment isn't it? Why are people posting a sanction not yet formulated let alone imposed has failed already?
Yet more desperately clutching at straws. Some people here are living in such a distorted reality trying to handle the fall of their beloved Russian empire they have become actually psychotic. People are literally having mental breakdowns trying to dismiss the real world and what Russia has done and the consequences to come. I'm beginning to feel some real sorrow for you.
@email
Russia and the bric states are setting up their own banking system and moving away from swift slowly but surely. This is also going to cause a major slowdown in our economies due to the sheer volume of transactions that the west handles.
Russia is also removing the dollar as the main currency from its wealth fund. China ,India and Russia alone contribute about 35% of world trade and this with brazil and south frica makes it around 40%
Reliance on the west will not end but will be greatly reduced due to tthe BRICS exchanging their own currencies for goods and creating an internal market.
Not been able to get a live quote to buy under 200p, so to be fair it's holding up just fine.
203p as I write. Pub open yet?
Weekly chart looks great. Not expecting fireworks today but after it’s had it’s flat day or so expecting a steady move up weekly here on out, leading to Q2 results just weeks away now
8.45am Buy Vol 68k
Sell Vol 134k
Biggest Sell I can see is 13k
The sanctions were predominantly designed against individuals in an effort to persuade the inner circle to push Putin to change cous or remove him. Putin has become much authoritarian and murderous so those sanctions have not had an immediate effect but if they hadn't been tried there would have been out cry. Slowly the oligarchs are being ground down and intelligence is picking up more and more signals of dissent within the inner circle.
The macro sanctions are designed to cut of funds and components that could be used to fund the war. The component sanctions is having a significant effect of stopping production of modern weapon manufacture. Sanctions to cut off money supply take much longer to filter through and the main one of permanently cutting off all and gas requires structural change which is going ahead and will have a major impact on Russia long after the war has stopped. Meanwhile the non-sanctioned sanctions by private organisations are wiggling their way more and more into the lives and the minds of the individual people.
If you are a Moscowvite and you accept the propaganda, you may ask why did McDonalds leave. Is some of that war crime stuff true? The withdrawal of Western companies and brands will be impacting the conscience of Russians trying to reconcile the propaganda with the behaviour of the private level sanctions.
The later macro sanctions are longer term and designed to have impacts that will increase as the annual economic cycle comes around and then bed in with long term damage.
People posting here that nothing has happened to affect Russia and that instead Russia is preparing and the west suffering are completely delusional to the point they need help!