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Couldn’t agree more BSR the guy is an absolute 🤡
#houseofcards is burning from the inside 😉
On 14th March 2024. Macron : France will send troops into Ukraine. BUT we will not lead.
On Friday 15 March 2024. Kirby: Send troops if you want, but the US will not be sending troops.
On Saturday 16 March 2024. BSR: (rolling on the floor in laughter). So who is going to lead the French troops into Ukraine?
Conclusion: The USA just reminded Macron he is a court jester and not a policymaker. Remember Aukus deal which made France look stupid, and now again France has been left out to dry.
All the while Macron cries on TV- "I am the president, I decide"x 10. Till music fades.🤡🤡🤡🤡
@E.Pensfold...yes you are a bit out and I should have spotted that when I responded to your earlier post on earnings in 2024.
You used single AISC guidance figure provided by POLY. This figure was an average incorporating both the costs in Russia and Kaz. Cost of producing gold in Kaz is much lower than in Russia, but I have not seen POLY provide separate AISC figure for Kaz. Further point to note for 2024 is the inflation in Kaz which currently is running at about 9% and the US$ to Tenge exchange rate is holding at about 450 to US$. If the exchange rate holds in 2024 (like it did throughout 2023), the inflation will eat into the profits leaving POLY with lower earnings.
So tough such dark days ahead … I’m struggling to cope …if only we had fair and open elections in the uk as they do in Russia
#houseofcards is burning from the inside 😂😂😂
Like I said...over optimism leads to disappointment.
But if you need the copium and hopium to see you through the days ahead. Then by all means go ahead.
#RealityalwaysInterrupts
Sorry I am miles off. I calculated EBITDA for poly.k here but it doesn't seem to relate in any useful way to earnings and EPS in today's financial results.
Current EBITDA of $439m for 2023 is healthier than my estimate for 2024.
Would really like to know how to estimate earnings from that.
No divi proposal is disappointing, a token divi would have gone down well. IMO POLY would have paid the divi but the shareholder register is currently all over the place, and its difficult to see this corrected without POLY relisting back on the LSE.
Results are published.... NO DIVIDEND.....but now that PolyR has been sold, the Board will actively reconsider the dividend policy and intends to share an update in May!
Only a fool would not be able to see what is happening to putin and Russia bsr
The real reality is finally coming home 😉🤷♂️
#houseofcards
"Will they declare divi?"
I hope so; only obstacle I can see is that so many holders have still not properly registered their holdings after POLY redomiciled to Kaz. IMO these holders may be giving POLY an excuse not to pay divis.
Polymetal will release the Group’s FY 2023 preliminary financial results on Friday, March 15 (11.00 London Time).
Will they declare divi?
It looks like the share price is holding up even under Blackrock selling pressure. I wonder who is buying?
Again JohnNth and his over optimism "analysis". Polymetal is still dependent on the POX in Russia.
Until a new Pox is built, there is still a Russia risk element.
Has the sale of Poly R significantly de-risked the business -YES. But a risk still remains. Mr Nesis said it himself Processed gold was held up at Russian ports for no good reason, so all the gold can at anytime be effectively seized by russia in the name of paperwork etc.
Don't pop the champagne just yet.
Both Rus/UKR war and Whether good/bad deal is now behind us; POLY has been de-risked with net cash position of at least $130m. I personally think it's bit more than this in view of gold price and hence POLY can afford to pay all of it in divis.
Up to now, Russian business weighed heavily on sp which did not react to factors such as rise in price of gold or the exchange rates. Discount in sp will persist whilst POLY remains solely listed in Kaz, but I expect it to rise to narrow the difference in relation to its peers in the West in the coming weeks and months.
Fingers x'd........
Polymetal International has announced today that divestment of Polymetal Group’s Russian business by way of disposal of 100 per cent of the JSC Polymetal share capital to JSC Mangazeya Plus has completed.
With the transaction closed and major risks eliminated, Polymetal plans to present their new strategy and capital allocation policy in May.
@E.Penfold...good ballpark figure to work with; bit conservative imo, both average price ($2,050 YTD average) and production will be a tad higher, taking EPS to just over $1.00 which puts current sp at under 4x forward earnings multiple. Of course, we are excluding including any income from Russia.
Fingers x'd........
Good morning,
Quite a few "ifs", "buts" and "maybes" here but....
IF;
Gold price average of $2100 USD / oz in 2024
AISC of $1300 USD / oz in 2024
GP of $800 USD / oz in 2024
475 koz production in Poly.K in 2024
Earnings of $380 m
475m shares in issue
EPS = $0.8 USD
Interested in what others think.
No you are not occupying my brain. I long predicted $2,100 oz by year end and $2,300 by end 2024. Only delays in interest rate cycle prolonged that to Feb 2024. Further, I don't think wars are weighing heavily on gold either as they are contained; but general geopolitics and de-dollarisation is and this will continue for a good few years. Of course, the most important immediately is the trends in interest rates.
Also, just so you know, if you read my early posts from last year, I have mentioned separate listing for POLY Rus and POLY Kaz and holders be issued shares in both. I still think this was worth exploiting even though significant risk attached to POLY Rus including nationalisation. As it turns out, risk would have been 70 cents, cos that is what we're getting net from sale of Russian assets.
Anyway, all that is behind us and soon we'll not be talking about Russia/Ukraine war either on this board as it is no longer relevant.
Why would I laugh?
I would though wonder if any benefit was gained on the price of the russian unit in this "expectation". As for any Poly holder it bodes well for all, (if divi's are to be paid and when/if we ever move to a liquid stock exchange). Are you saying that you foresaw the troubles in Gazza? The attacks on ships in the gulf? How about the continuing war in Ukraine? and the cooling in property prices? Lets see what happens when the election is over in the states. As we all know, these things are cyclic, gold is a hedge commodity and related to world events, hardly enough to base a future price prognosis on. In reality I wish that I had bought olive oil futures, which are up far more than gold (around 80% year on year).
I too noticed that you followed my lead (as I said 2 months ago, though could not be vain enough to mention) in proposing that the russian unit could possibly be better off floated on it's own and all shareholders given the choice of taking the shares or not.
It is nice to know though that I occupy a part of your brain, just as Obama does tRumps.
GLASH.
@jotom750...you most recently said the following in response to my predictions on gold price:
" I did laugh (internally) when some here were raving about gold going to $2100!"
Bet you're not laughing now!
That would be good, thanks JohnNth. And presumably reasonable to hope/assume that with Poly back on the LSE and a divi paid - albeit perhaps less than one might have thought for a 3/4 year wait and with such a good gold price now - should indicate to the market that Poly is once again worth investing in.
BSR is investors relations on here. Telegram London group is full of doom mainly because the company have numerous fake profiles on there pushing for sells. They want retail to scarper. 180 million free float in the West all retail and could not vote. Management want this 180 million to sell and run, read the room its non stop doom yet Nesis won't sell his 3.3 million shares odd eh?
Again another over optimistic prediction of 40cent Divis.
This is just becoming hopium and copium at this point.
I have always spoken about people who are in way over their heads. But greed is a powerful thing
Wow @JohnNth I like the way you argue the small details and ignore the actual point. Shows credibility.
Secondly I have corrected you on some of your facts about Polymetal in the past. Facts that an analyst will be expected to know.
I have also cautioned you for your over optimism in the past before the sale was announced. You didn't listen so it is only natural that you are not happy with the reality as it stands today.
We are in the same boat as to regarding wanting the best for polymetal but your over optimism (pre sale) and whinging (post sale) is the difference.
@Moorscloud...I think Nesis did say restoration of listing on the Western exchange should be a priority, and that in his view total net proceeds should be applied in achieving this objective. He said this can only be achieved by bulking up the company through investments in assets.
He said the paying of divis would delay this process; made it sound as though the two (paying of divis and bulking up the company) were mutually exclusive, but this would be discussed once transaction was all complete.
My view is that shareholders have not had any divis since 2020, POLY Kaz has very little debt and gold market is very buoyant with gold appreciating by full $100 oz since Nesis made the statement; there is ample room for both divis of say 40 cents (total cost $200m) and bulking up using remainder proceeds, extra income due to increase in gold price and borrowing.
IMO there will be a divi payment as early as May.