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Moresmash,
Or not. Perhaps the sky is not falling after all.
Of the two theories of history, I strongly favour ****up over conspiracy. We often see clever plans and deviousness where none such exists.
Last December Iran threatened that if they weren't allowed to export oil nobody else will. At that time it was dismissed as bluster. Something has changed, maybe sanctions are hitting them hard and its back is against the wall. Maybe Bolton left, the last of teh US hardliners gone, so Trump ends up not knowing what to do. so whats next - a tanker ??
Saudi Arabia has to respond otherwise its going to look helpless
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/04/iranian-president-hassan-rouhani-threatens-to-close-strait-of-hormuz.html
This will be your typical spike before the close then they will tank oil come 16:30. The KSA will tell us that it isn't as bad as first thought and back online in two weeks, with the US and Russia saying they can cover the losses. The API report will somehow amazingly be a massive build and oil will be back down to $61 for trumps pleasure, pmo will open up well down tomorrow and be 83p etc. It will all be sweet and the US and KSA plan will be to put further sanctions on IRAN rather than war. Nice coincidence a few days before this trump got rid of his national security adviser.
Just my luck went out to play table tennis for a couple of hours this afternoon and POO and PMO have crashed! Instinct told me to exit this morning for a couple of extra pence but no I stayed in. As long as we don't fall to 55p I'll hang on for now.
Hark, is that a recovering trend in Poo I see? Could it be that Mr Market is slowly realising that he has panicked unnecessarily?
Isn’t it a universal truth that the market always overreacts in the short term?
The sky is falling (not).
Panic selling all around. This too shall pass.
Roll on a return to 135p plus. Then I shall exit PMO, having had enough of the drama (queens).
Or if you wanted an excuse to go after Iran, you could use a false flag attack against your own side in which case you would make it look as serious as possible to justify a response, but would acutally cause as little damage as possible so that you could bring back on production as quickly as possible. Light a few fires and turn off a few taps.
Trouble I see possibly, is all the OPEC nations are thinking, (while Saudi suffering, lets all pump more to help the shortfall and then Saudi get back on stream, US put reserves into market and suddenly we have a glut of oil out there, more than we would have had.
Don't know what the Saudis were thinking not just telling the market, it will take weeks to fix, then let higher oil prices materialise.
Think they have screwed an amazing opportunity to get prices up. (or Trump has been pressuring them in the background)