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Hunter, I appreciate your balanced view. It's important we keep a sense of perspective because as ever with pmo, there are always twists and turns that keep us guessing, and waiting!
Not that is was the intention, but now ARCM are nicely underpinning the sp. Thanks guys.
Hunter, I suppose ARCM not being involved in the placing could provide a short term spike if they close their position, true, which would likely settle (hopefully in a materially higher range) after some time. My point however is that higher range should come about regardless of who gets which shares, as it will balance out past the short term.
Bat-soup virus appears to be moving to page 2. Flack and Storm Denis are taking up page 1. Another month or so and well be heading towards 120 again imo. ARCM can go play shove ha'penny over in Macau lol
Beerbull, see my response to Geo. I would love to see ARCM have a very expensive out, but I am also trying to see the other side in that they may have an opportunity to come out without much damage.
As ever, more than happy to be wrong in these type of circumstances!! :-)
Geo, in my view it does matter if ARCM are able to participate as, dependent upon size, they will acquire discounted shares. Again, dependent upon the discount, those shares could be used to close out a portion, at least, of their short without a 'spike' in SP. If POO remains at these levels then that is all the better for ARCM as the discounted SP will be that much lower than it would otherwise have been.
Hunter, regardless of whether ARCM come out in profit overall, they are where they are now & the big short imo will be very expensive to get out of. They are probably hoping for a white rabbit or some unforeseen event to to come to their rescue. However, with the bp purchase/Zama/Tolmount PMO are looking more diversified & with the additional & growing bopd nicely placed for the future. What a shame for ARMC.
Not sure it particularly matters one way or another if ARCM take part in the placing. Either way, we have about 40% more shares coming our way. We also have about 20% of our shares that need to be bought back at some time or another. Those fundamentals don’t change based on who is involved in the placing and who isn’t, so involvement of different parties won’t affect the SP. What it will affect is how much damage ARCM is able to limit on their short.
Thanks ARCM. Lets hope that justice prevails !
Bladesman, as has been discussed, whilst PMO do not themselves have to offer any part of the placing to ARCM, it is not their decision. The decision comes down to the Underwriter(s) of the offer who will not, perhaps unfortunately, give a t*ss who takes part in the placing.
Whilst, along with many others, I would like to see ARCM suffer, they are unlikely to do so. They have done very well indeed on the Bonds and they are likely to come out with a decent chuck of their short in profit too. Should oil recover above $60 in the near future and the SP rise back again, then this will make it that much harder for them of course; coronavirus has done them a massive favour.
Definition of ARCM’s PMO position, “ between a rock & a hard place”.
........ Not from pmo. Read the pmo quote below
“Premier expects that the equity raise will include both a placing and rights issue component with any shares issued under the placing qualifying for the subsequent pre-emptive rights issue,” it said.
So you only get shares if you participate in the placing. Unlikely that pmo will place shares with arcm given its underhand behaviour and opposition to pmo's strategy. Interesting!