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Agreed 70p for HE is totally unrealistic, unless poo above 80, which again is not realistic as the Saudis will turn on the taps after 70 dollars.HE at 50p is certainly possible this year , with 40 p almost certain post completion by end of June when first results/ market update is presented. All good.
I am on about the oil price not pmo.
There is no way pmo gets to 70.
I bought in at 20p a few weeks back. I’m probably out at 30 short term which is a 5x ev multiple. Best case at the moment is what, 6x ev ebitda? At 60 average oil and 34 bore gas that’s a share price of 38p. Longer term I think goes higher but I was here for the trade as the mkt seemed to fundamentally not understand the chrysaor deal or the shorting/pre hedging around it.
Having said that, this gets close to 24p pre merger close and I’m in for more as that sub 4.5x ev ebitda for a company with a clean balance sheet, big scale, diversified production (oil and gas), FCF positive, good hedge book, WILL pay a dividend and some good prospects to add production.
You will never see that share price , I think today may shock you and by Friday (24.00) more like 32.00 , people are not gonna say hey there's a merger coming let the price slip, jeez what a stupid comment
Nah m, the draw on gasoline inventories was HUGE in the weekly API report. Crude only built as several large refineries were off line in the south from the freeze. Looking into the refined product data you can see demand is still there and supply still restricted. The demand will be boosted when jet fuel demand and gasoline demand returns over the next few months.
All eyes on opec and the ruskies this week but if I am then I would let the market run hot till the June meeting and see where the demand side of the equation is then.
I’m pretty bullish oil. Think if they hold cuts this week we test 70 by the summer when demand should go through the roof from a return to driving and flying.
Hi Bladesman
US OIL dropped to $59usd more coming in due to the Thursday Opec meeting which will most likely allow more oil unto the markets. I will buy £30k of Pmo if it drops to 24.6p. Cheers
Will be a dooon day, I fear. Poo is poo !