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Kraken - i share your enthusiasm and so so wish ahd hope it will bounce back as you suggest but i dont think so - i really dont think so, peoples spending power and ability has been crippled. Yes supply / demand drives economies but there is no foundations to the recovery.
Just take a look at how many companies cut dividends, the PE ratios and then tell me you are 100% all in invested? By the way, did you sell in 50's and by back in 30's?
I am not critisiscing you, everyone is of course of a different opinion, i just dont share your v recovery your talking about but see a longer slower gradual return of investment and economies, with many many more coprorates falling fowl of the siuation. A possible financial crisi to follow this virus driven downturn - gloomy i am sorry but its jus the way i see it
Ferret, there will be much higher demand for everything , we are running short on everyday items already, So what if the figures are terrible, we know the figures are going to be terrible but we are now positioning for the future. People still have lots of spare cash and that cash is burning a hole in the pockets.
The estate where I am has 40 plus businesses of all different trades and every single one of them are flat out. Thats not a sign of a start of a recession in my view and I've been through a few.
The large companies are using this period to clean up the dead wood within and streamline themselves going forward, New companies will replace the fallen ones and soon the shops and pubs clubs will be rammed again, this covid will be forgotten about next year and classed as the common flu.
Yep SK, its simple human nature, we get bored of being told what to do and being 'caged'. Regardless, the economic fallout has only just started and there will be a great deal more s*** to hit the fan. Corporate results are nothing better than dissatrous, pretty much across the board! GDP of many/most countries is reporting double digit drops, what is there positive about that -
Aramco is forecasting oil demand will be at the mid 90's by the end of this year. Almost back to pre Covid levels.
This could get very interesting as they have been spot on with their predictions all the way through this mess.
Good to see you actually bullish on oil Ferret, Opec reported oil demand is back at 90mbls and climbing, we now have a situation where most mid cap oillies across the globe are in a position of production decline that they cannot currently replace, shale looking like they will suffer the most going into next year and some analysts forecast it is unlikely that shale production will ever return to the highs of this year.
We are at the end of the typical 7 year oil cycle of over supply.
We could very well see $100 oil next year at some point.
I am in at 36.15 with 50K -
Still medium term, i feel this will go lower espectially when Tony gets his finger out on the refinance - but regardless i see a short term commodities rally after tech rally, and then i see a broad market sell off - all IMO
Hope everyone making money and everyone sold on the way down from 50's -
Lets see, i still think it will head lower on medium term but good price for a day or few days trade -
SK / Kilgeever / Alpha - anyone else in?