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Like 2000, when the media advised no one to fly on Dec 31st because of the millennium bug or how mad cows disease was another ticking time bomb... or how about saddams weapons of mass destruction. Even if this flu virus proves to be everything the media is saying it to be in my opinion crediblity in the media & so called experts is still shot.
We are not going to see 5th March. According to the newspapers, we are all doomed.
OPEC will cut. They've already said as much at the start of Feb when a figure of 2.7m barrels was mooted. They will look to cut the reduction in demand from China. This sets up an interesting scenario, because if demand picks up over the summer then the price per barrel could spike. Given social media and society in general the world is now a hysterical place and this is reflected in the market. You'd be forgiven for thinking we were facing airborne ebola rather than a nasty respiratory illness that has a slighty higher death rate than flu. The psychological problem is that when people hear that 1, 2 or 700 people have died they can easily conceptualise the figure, because they can imagine 700 people and get scared. 1.5 billion people live in China and 7 billion around the world. In this context the figures are tiny, but it is impossible for people to image 1 billion people in the same place.
It is no doubt going to drag on the world economy, but the trump card here (no pun intended) is OPEC. Thereafter there is PMO's own news stream of Mexico, Alaska and debt reduction. This will pass and when it does the price will rise accordingly. I suspect ACRM can't believe their luck. If I was them I'd be using this window as an opportunity to close. It's a win, win for them.
I think it goes without saying a production cut to compansate for China using less is the minimum that will happen.
Saudi wants Brent North of $70, but Russia was thinking $60 to $65. We are @ $55.66 as I type this.
Seems to me it's very likley they will be cutting more than just that needed to compensate for China.
Will be interesting.
All IMHO.