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Thanks for reminding us, Kenni, although I'm not sure that HappyInvestor100 is the member who predicted specifically a 5 pence price, because I haven't been able to find that comment.
Here, however, is a selection of his comments and price predictions:
08 Oct 2020 10:11
I may buy a few PMO shares at 6-7p per share.
08 Oct 2020 07:10
I think PMO will be in single digits by Christmas.
07 Oct 2020 08:52
Don't shoot the messenger, mate. This unfolding car crash is not of my making but it was totally predictable. Have I not been almost right on most things?
Those ramping are the ones who ought to eat a large slice of humble pie.
07 Oct 2020 08:47
10p and lower coming my friends!
The long death...01 Oct 2020 11:24
10p is odds-on by November...
23 Sep 2020 08:44
I think you peeps are the mad ones because you don't see that you're mad. You are in a perpetual cycle of denial. Some you actually believe PMO will make you rich - ha, ha, ha!
We shall see. And, yes, I will be the voice that says, "I told you so".
His comments on HUR:
15 Sep 2020 11:38
bottom line is this company is insolvent to all intents and purposes in my opinion...1p by Christmas...
14 Sep 2020 17:45
Equity is worthless.
Can't believe peeps can't see it.
HUR shares are now 3.67p.
They never fell below 2p, just as PMO never fell below 10p.
HUR is a profitable company, producing about 12,000 barrels of oil per day.
Its profit in December was $19 Million, which with rising oil prices and expected increases in production could increase substantially.
When that happens, HappyInvestor100 can be expected to become a convert to HUR as well as to PMO.
HappyInvestor100 I do not want to argue with you , just to notify everyone who you are.
You were spooking investors predicting 5p or collapse of the company. Now u invested and different song u sing.
Your posting gave many investors bad sleep in the night, and that includes me as I was worried I will loose all my monies.
I remember that, and I will try to protect others from your posting.
I understand you posting depends if you in or out, and u do not care about others.
Just bought in. Hoping for 50p
and underwear
Dear esecallum,
I'm afraid you're very wrong on both points, given what I do for a living.
Norway's supreme court has rejected an appeal to deny licences for drilling, in fact licenses are going in for exploration in the artic as we speak. Norway's sovereign wealth fund is built on, you guessed it - Oil, making it one wealthy country, don't think they will do something to harm that position.
On Argentina, again based on what I do, I'm not sure what comic you're reading but there's more chance of Elon Musk flying to Mars (lets hope he stays there).
Oil is alive and flowing
There are big bets in place that oil hits $100 by next year.
Buy Buy Buy
I know you're just trolling..... but its the sale of new "oil" cars banned from 2030, not the use of oil cars as a whole.
Sealion is dead as it 8000 miles away and no way to transport the oil and ARGENTINA could invade the Falklands anytime.
Maybe but oil is going out of fashion with Electric Tesla cars and wind farms and solar panels by 2023. the government has banned oil cars by 2030!!!
Norways has banned oil cars and oil drilling. The market is on the point of collapse with electric planes being made.
Oil is dead.
SELL SELL SELL
The Fundamentals have been in favour of PMO a long time ago and that why I believe in this stock. Everyone should do their research before investing in any stock.
Reddit post I created a month ago regarding PMO Fundamentals and since then BC has come a long way.
https://www.reddit.com/r/WallStreetbetsELITE/comments/lccmmr/dont_invest_in_premier_oil_stock_to_pump_and_dump/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
Hey KenniGT
Let's agree to disagree. I have explained why I changed my mind and presented some rough calculations which I will back up with a more detailed calculation in due course.
If you believe PMO is a sell, I would be very pleased to see your rough assumptions and figures. Please do feel free to challenge my assumptions and figures but there's no point casting aspersions or engaging in a futile discussion (your ramping/no, I'm not/yes, you are/no, i'm not). It's just plain boring.
Best
Happy
I just want people to know who u are.
Once you were very negative, day by day. Predicting it will collapse.
Now you are positive 'numbers provider'.
All. Do your own research, do not suggest what is written here.
HappyInvestor100
You are ramping. Your numbers couple months ago were negative. You were saying it will go below 10p.
Happy, I trust your figures and analysis.
KenniGT
I am not ramping. I am providing hard numbers for my projections which are realistic because they are based on what PMO achieved in the good recent years (albeit note all my many caveats). What has changed is the Brent forward curve. It's the most bullish it's been in 5 years. Does one not adjust estimates based upon the macro fundamentals? You do raise some very good points and words of caution but you seem completely closed to the potential opportunity. May I please ask whether you currently hold any stock?
Best
Happy
How for deramper u become ramper Happy?
Ohh I know, you invested finally.
Zama is in hands of Mexican narcos, you can forget about it. See Lion - even shell would had a big think if it is worth to develop. Nearby Argentina does not help.
You cash flow does not take into account old assets which will need to be decommissioned.
Production will decline from year to year. That is why they need PMO. To offset those old assets they have.
All purely illustrative and speculative until confirmed by reading prospectus and undertaking more analysis but it shows the potential here.
Year 1: $1bn cash flow
Debt reduction: 50% ($500m net debt reduction to $2.7bn)
Growth projects: 25% ($250m prioritise low-hanging North Sea opportunities e.g. Catcher infill, Tolmount, focus on year 1 remains very much on debt reduction. Allocate some capex to Sea Lion and Zama FIDs - though latter may be sold)
Dividends and/or buybacks: 25% ($250m would give year 1 dividend yield of 3.5% at current SP)
Year 2: assume increase of free cash flow to $1.25bn (extra free cash flow generated by driving synergies, opex reduction and economies of scale. Accelerate use of tax losses in North Sea)
Debt reduction: 25% ($313m to just under $2.4bn)
Growth: 40% ($500m accelerating development of growth projects)
Dividends and/or buybacks: 35% ($438m giving year 2 dividend yield of 6%)
Year 3: assume free cash flow of $1.5bn
Debt reduction: 10% ($150m reduction to $2.25bn, less focus on paying back debt and in fact plenty of capacity for taking on more reserves-based lending to fund growth projects with support from UKEF e.g. Sea Lion)
Growth: 40% ($600m bring one more key growth project(s) online e.g Zama, SL, others in N/S? complemented by reserves-based lending)
Dividend and/or buyback: 50% ($750m giving dividend yield at current share price of 10.4%)
Note its probable that as growth projects come on line, Harbour will take on more debt e.g. in year 2/3. It will have plenty of capacity to do this to support substantial medium term growth projects. Then debt would fall again as cash flow from production growth kicked in.
I do not have Harbour's view of cash flow or its planned capital allocation policy. I will check the prospectus but I suspect this will be developed and articulated further through this year. What this shows is that Harbour at the current Brent forward curve will be a free cash flow generating beast.
There are different ways to put back-of-the-fag-packet valuations on the enlarged group. I haven't the time to do a full DCF calculation but very crudely a 5% dividend yield by year 3 gives:
$750m dividends paid (see above) / 5% = $15bn market cap
$15bn market cap = c.52p per share (which I think might turn out to be quite conservative if the Brent forward curve stays this bullish). So valuation of 50-60p a share plus further upside from medium term production growth.
(DYOR - quick, very rough, illustrative calculations done in a hurry lol!)
Best
Happy
Hi smalltrader, I am a bit in and a bit out. Took some profit. Do not trust recent raise on the markets. Oil price as well. Lockdown will be till end of June at least. Third wave possible, other courtiers situation not certain. Lots of time for up and down.
But what does your computation mean for the share price, Mr Happy? Are we looking at 40p plus?
KenniGT good to see you again! You have been quite for a long time. Hope you did not sell. I remember you having 18p avg?
Sorry happy but sea lion is copule years from development. If at all. Lack of infrastructure and distance makes this development very expensive and doubtful. I would not add it to valuation. And u have to remember that they argubly need pmo more as theirs assets are getting older.
Thanks Happy. I'm happy with that.
I obviously need to do much more detailed research and analysis including reading the prospectus but here are some quick numbers from memory to chew over.
Current market cap is (£254m / 5%) * 1.415 exchange rate = $7.2bn.
Net debt will be around $3.2bn.
So enterprise value of $10.4bn.
Now, Premier Oil in its recent good years managed to generate around $400m of free cash flow e.g. from Catcher / SE Asia etc. as it was paying down debt. Free cash flow is operating cash flow less capex so it is the true measure of cash available to pay down debt, invest in growth projects and/or return cash to shareholders.
So very roughly, if PMO produced $400m to $500m of annual free cash flow with c. 100k boepd, Harbour with double the production could easily generate $1bn a share of free cash flow per annum. This doesn't even take into account Harbour's ability to borrow at much better interest rates, cost synergies and economies of scale and ability to accelerate utilisation of tax credits etc. So the $1bn figure could turn out to be conservative at the current Brent forward curve.
$1bn of free cash flow for an enterprise value of $10bn. Doesn't sound too shabby, does it? If Harbours develop Sea Lion, which I think it will, group production could easily climb to over 300koepd in the medium term.
I would welcome thoughts / criticism?
[All figures to be checked and analysed in detail following full research. Please DYOR and IMHO only].
Best
Happy