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unfortunately not - sliding lower
WTI now more than 2% down and Brent catching up also - ummmm whats going on here
US Banks about to give earnings results but shouldnt impact oil directly - i think OPEC leaked something lets watch the wire and look some news coming
The bottoms are raising. On the way up again ?
Yep watching TLW also - sub 30 is dangerous and its taking a whack - i think the impending TU tomorrow is keeping PMO where it is today but if TD dissapoints tomorrow i am pretty sure PMO will follow suit
Tough one to call this
Its one heck of a white / mind board anasysis problem thats for sure SK
I am no fan of the crown prince or the Saudi's but they know its getting really desperate and that was before corvid 19.
I am not sure the US have ANY coherent foreign policy. And Europe has none or at best very little influnce.
As the majors exit the North Sea the likes of PMO, Chryasor, Apache, Ithaca energy, Perenco etc etc become very important for the UK in jobs and oil /gas supply
2018:
https://www.offshore-technology.com/features/new-era-small-producers-arrived-uk-north-sea/
Also very good read:
https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://oilandgasuk.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Economic-Report-2019-OGUK.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjAtJ_Hy8zqAhUBilwKHTPTBVoQFjABegQIDRAG&usg=AOvVaw3ZvjxF__HOgnstMJAUr7ub
Just while we are twiddling our thumbs (-:
Rgds Sft
Toothless but surley the meeting this week will have some affect? On PoO.
Saudi Arabia have proved to not have as much control as they did before the rise of shale (or the + part of OPEC i.e. Russia) but what they do still has significant affect on markets. I do not think that can, from their recent (2013) and more recent attempt, be denied.
If reading what is written about Saudi's economic need to have PoO at and above $75; to support their bloated needs, military expendeture and pacification of a radical population....$65 imo is a more realistic medium term level...and that indicated to me they are burning too much money to sustain their outgoings and therefore the potential for internal problems are inevitable. Iran their sworn enemies are now in bed with the muslim loving chinese and being very economicaly lean and would love them to be fully destabilized.
Does the US care anymore about the old 1951 Mutual Defense Assistance Agreement now they have shale? Will Trump let the whole region go up? Iran would then be the major force in the region?
How long can House of Saud survive?
This imo is the next threat...China/Iran, Syria/Russia, Libyia/ Turkey....will the US walk.
There was an artical posted by a poster on RKH bb board about the USA setting up a department to fund oil and resource regions stopping the chinese investment/ influence.
Lots of questions.
Rgds Sft
I agree SK, i dont believe OPEC have done a good job - like any cartel, they are in the cartel to make money, pure and simple and sod everyone else. That showed when Saudi's threw their teddies out the pram recently!
Its as corrupt as they come - we are mere pawns in the process. With Russia and US outside the cartel and the biggest producers it hardly an effective cartel. IMagine no OPEC and Saudi just balancing their own production to create demand and supply level, it would work just as effectively - waste of time OPEC but hey ho, what do i know . . .
It has to SK, oil doesn’t find itself and oil field don’t refill !
2014/15 hurt the oil market badly and it’s never recovered, this pandemic has made it even worse. All points to a badly under supplied market. We don’t want $100 oil too soon......do we ?
Time and lack of investment, rigs are at a 14 year low, it took 2 years from the lows of 2016 to reach 2018 highs but back then investors were throwing huge amounts of cash at them, that’s not the case now, I doubt anyone will throw cash at them for the next year at least. Well decline rate have increased over the last few years meaning more and more wells required to maintain production rates, drilled wells are being used up fast without enough new ones drilled.
Yes your probably right Ferret, Trump is a damn idiot but will he listen …...no ! He is hoping herd immunity will prevail followed by this Magic Vaccine.
Oil prices will be forced much higher soon, not by demand but lack of supply, Investment across the globe in oil prospecting/discovery's has been at a all time low over the last 5 years, oil fields are in decline and we aren't far away from the end of the usual 7 year period of low oil prices.
Shale production is now in decline and will soon roll over as lack of drilled wells bite and who would invest in Shale right now ? You would have to be mad.
We could see US production fall 5m plus barrels by year end - Then what ?
I like your optimism Kraken - respect.
BUT its gonna get worse before it gets better - California now in lock down statewide and that includes all offices and work places and i suspect other states to follow - Trump is a damn idiot !
Disease Centre and Fauci warning to expect death rate to rise rapidly over coming 2-3 weeks as massive increase in infection rates leads to higher death rates (unfortunately).
The US holding mass covid parties is either utter madness or pure Genius. The death rate percentage is very low compared to the rest of the locked down world but most are young people thinking once they have got over it they will be immune from catching it again ! That's ok if they stay well away from the more venerable.
We will find out in due course.
Mm’s rinse and repeat, daily.
It's all about patience, the US are going to still have virus figures rise due to the sheer idiocy of the previous opening of states but it will abate and rhen oil will recover. There will be more local lockdowns throughout the world that will keep demand lower at present so good time to buy in over the next few months I feel.
I don't think oil will hit $55/60 soon but it will have the bonus of keeping US shale down
The US infection rate will soon plummet !
Then the market will see this as a massive positive.
Floating storage is declining fast as oil demand rises, Opec don't have much choice other than to start easing on oil cuts otherwise oil price will climb too quick, keep oil prices under $45 for the next few months should keep Shale in the downward spiral.
Next year is the one we need to position for.
Ugh celery
Oil price is pairing with dow futures its just slightly recovered, I think the Americans are starting to smell the coffee.
They could go either way at the mo.
I'm staying away for 24 hours.
Recovering now dodger
I hope not but ftse 100 set to erase all gains from yesterday. I guess its time to be an investor or risk never making anything....
Wish i was in cash. Bloody USA leading all markets down. I never bought the v shaped recover tripe but they are now stopping any type. I was optimistic for our ftse but we get led like a dog on a lead. Going to be crap day.
htt ps://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/13/opec-set-to-roll-back-some-production-cuts-but-risks-sending-prices-lower-again.html