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ARCMHunter,
Nice data set thanks very much for that.
Does that put their average somewhere in the high 70s ?
No surprise; day-traders cashing in the chips for the weekend
yes I am sad - it was a slow day that day
19th October 2019 ?? ..again, I assume you mean 2018?!
Would some of yours be closed out though I take as they did vary their amounts quite heavily prior to my data?
As you can see, just taking from my start position (at 2.9%), the figure would not come out anywhere near as low as yours.
Also, as you note, the calculations have to be somewhat rough as the share pool has increased considerably.
I need to get on now, unfortunately, and will try to refrain from doing the full 150 lines later!!
Cheers ... good to find someone as sad as me lol.
correction the big buy back should read 19th Jan 2018
I did 150 lines (ooh misses)
Some interesting days include
the 19 January 2019 - they bought back 14M shares @ 90.75 p
The highest price gained was - 121p on 19Th October 2019
The lowest price gained was 45p on 23 June 2017
The highest buy back was 12 July 129.6p
Indeed there is a chuck of buy backs between 29th May 2018 ans 1 August - averages 16m shares @ 118p
Just for info., my original data:
Date Short % Price Paid (theory)
05-Jul-19 16.85 73.7
04-Jul-19 16.76 73.8
03-Jul-19 16.64 74.9
01-Jul-19 16.42 82.0
28-Jun-19 16.53 76.9
27-Jun-19 16.41 79.0
26-Jun-19 16.29 78.2
25-Jun-19 16.16 74.6
24-Jun-19 16.03 74.5
21-Jun-19 15.90 76.5
20-Jun-19 15.78 77.3
19-Jun-19 15.65 73.1
18-Jun-19 15.52 73.5
17-Jun-19 15.17 69.6
14-Jun-19 14.83 70.4
13-Jun-19 14.49 72.5
12-Jun-19 14.29 70.0
11-Jun-19 14.08 75.0
10-Jun-19 13.82 74.5
07-Jun-19 13.68 75.5
06-Jun-19 13.50 73.5
05-Jun-19 13.32 73.4
04-Jun-19 12.97 78.0
03-Jun-19 12.75 77.8
31-May-19 12.49 78.1
30-May-19 12.23 84.6
29-May-19 12.18 83.1
28-May-19 11.98 86.6
23-May-19 11.82 82.0
21-May-19 11.70 98.0
20-May-19 11.65 97.0
17-May-19 11.58 99.4
16-May-19 11.48 98.3
15-May-19 11.30 90.4
13-May-19 11.20 86.4
09-May-19 11.10 85.7
08-May-19 11.02 91.0
07-May-19 10.95 88.7
02-May-19 10.82 91.4
30-Apr-19 10.70 99.8
29-Apr-19 10.62 98.2
26-Apr-19 10.48 98.2
13-Mar-19 10.34 82.9
24-Dec-18 10.40 58.0
21-Dec-18 10.37 57.1
20-Dec-18 10.20 56.8
19-Dec-18 10.06 62.4
18-Dec-18 9.88 61.3
17-Dec-18 9.76 65.0
14-Dec-18 9.52 67.6
13-Dec-18 9.34 70.7
11-Dec-18 9.21 72.8
07-Dec-18 9.04 75.9
06-Dec-18 8.75 66.1
05-Dec-18 8.50 74.6
29-Nov-18 8.48 70.1
28-Nov-18 8.54 68.5
27-Nov-18 8.29 70.3
26-Nov-18 7.96 72.1
23-Nov-18 7.70 64.8
22-Nov-18 7.40 72.8
21-Nov-18 7.26 77.8
20-Nov-18 6.99 76.6
19-Nov-18 6.68 80.8
16-Nov-18 6.38 81.8
15-Nov-18 6.06 85.3
14-Nov-18 5.76 93.7
13-Nov-18 5.46 95.2
12-Nov-18 5.27 100.0
08-Nov-18 4.67 105.7
05-Nov-18 4.57 107.0
02-Nov-18 4.42 107.2
01-Nov-18 4.23 103.9
31-Oct-18 4.19 107.8
30-Oct-18 4.07 102.3
26-Oct-18 3.90 103.0
25-Oct-18 3.72 106.2
24-Oct-18 3.58 105.5
23-Oct-18 3.45 107.5
22-Oct-18 3.29 114.0
19-Oct-18 3.16 121.0
07-Sep-18 3.06 114.3
06-Sep-18 2.98 117.7
05-Sep-18 3.10 119.7
29-Aug-18 3.00 116.8
16-Aug-18 2.90 113.7
Looking back
The first ARCM short (0.53%) on 24th Feb 2017 - was the same day PMO issued an RNS about share price weakness !
Cheers and exactly; my conclusion too !! I only took data from 16/8/2018 admittedly, but I only have a 11 lines (of 86) below 70p, so I am struggling with your 69p average. It may be the data that you have prior, but I only took from started increasing again as they had previously closed out to about 2 or 3% at one time I believe.
I did each line calculation as notified on eac date - summend up , and worked out the average. But I only used a daily share base of 830 M - too much effort to go back and get the actual shares in issue for the warrant conversions.
Nigoil I smell a nice Asian cooking tonight!!
jw61, just out of interest, did you do a full line calculation (i.e. % increase to work out the shares shorted for each notification) and then sum up, or just an average of all the notification SP lines? As the number of shares in issue has increased quite a lot, it makes a full line calculation that much harder.
yes
But I belive the lender has the right to call the margin at anytime
I guess it’s within the terms of the shorts which we are not party too ?
In don't think there is boerbull BUT there paying a fee for it!!! How much I have no idea!!
I guess the original owners or brokers, calling it in would stop em
Yes Grippa I know - appreciated.
What’s to stop ARCM keeping the short open ?
Was just saying for your info mate!! Indeed it is costing the slimy twats 1.4 Million per penny rise!! Hope they go tits up on other investments to the morals are non existent!!
Hi Grippa
Agreed. I just did the calc based on the days SP just to see where they are.
it could very well be higher - but not by much.
What we do know is every penny costs them 1.4M :-)
JW61 appreciate the calculations I was told by someone in the know they think 74P is the average price of shorts. Anyway another positive today!! :)
I created a spreadsheet too (see my first post?), but didn't do the quantity borrowed multiplied by the SP, etc., at that time. I'll take your word in that case as I'm not going back to it now!!! (...still think it's higher however lol)
Cheers.
My 69 p is calculated on spreadsheet - every sp for all the dealings listed by ARCM on the FCA spreadsheet.
I used the Closing pirce each day - could use the VWAP I suppose - but its around 69p for the sake of argument.
Plus generous coupon payments on the debt, plus warrants etc so share price has to rally quite hard to put them out of the money...... but then again nobody has had to cover a short back as big as this in a ftse 250 company which has a decent institutional base and no doubt little free float . Would be interesting to see the latest top 10 holdings updated from Elizabeth or Natalie
The bonds are bid over par because the new terms are pretty generous so no doubt many will want to own or rollover current position, the 2023 will then be at par when they are issued
Not sure where you get the 69p average from as i think it is higher so the loss, as it stands, netted off against the bond profit still means they gain overall (that's why it's a hedge fund I guess!!). They would have had quite high costs associated with borrowing the stock too, but still unlikely to lose - unfortunately.
However, the higher the SP goes, the more the shorts will eat in to that remaining profit ... as and when they close, it could also propel the SP further north as a short that size can't go unnoticed when attempting to buy the stock back. Will they wait until after the placing and RI in the hope that the SP will retrace on the 'dilution' or attempt to close out prior??? Have they gambled too much already on this one or will they stay firm ... with the associated risk? How many have they closed already (if any)?