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App downloads data is a nice find!
Trying to piece it all together.
This is the stats for the download for the US app, "Trade & Invest". which is the us futures platform
https://appmagic.rocks/google-play/plus500-trade-and-invest/com.plus500.futures
it shows in the last 30 days its had over 50k downloads from the US. thats half of the all the downloads in the most recent month since it launched A few months ago, that sound like its growing very fast. not all downloads result in a revenue generating customer of course.
Their accounts show customer margin/deposits of their CFD businesses in Europe and elsewhere, which is on-balance sheet. They are the counter party to the customer's positions, I believe. I don't know how the Cunningham futures business works but presume that customer positions are held in custody accounts along with customer deposits and are not on-balance sheet. The revolution PLUS brings to this market is the real time data and trading interface, as well as ability to tighten spreads for the customer and margin offsets if the customer has multiple positions in opposite directions, as they are a full clearing member of the exchange.
It is of course much lower margin business, so the customer deposit size in the US as per the spreadsheet generates around ~10% of the revenue the retail CFD business does.
I think I might be halfway to understanding how the US business works, frankly, but I am quite sure the data from CFTC is legitimate and telling.
I don't quite follow it, but while it's not on the balance sheet it is in the accounts as an in and an out on note 7.
Google appmagic for downloads. No idea if it's any good or accurate mind. Just found it the other day.
Good spot ggplyr
Segregation of Customer Funds: https://www.cftc.gov/IndustryOversight/Intermediaries/FCMs/fcmsegregationfunds.html#:~:text=Segregated%20accounts%20must%20be%20titled,the%20event%20of%20FCM%20insolvency.
As I understand it, assets/margin on futures instruments are not on PLUS500's balance sheet, so do not appear in their accounts
Where do you go to find data on App downloads?
@seaTank. delving a bit deeper and im a bit confused. at the end of december 2023 the CFTC data report shows customer assets in segregated account of $369m
whereas in the preliminary results for 2023 note 7 shows "Segregated client funds" of $249.6m. The preliminary results of course show the figure for all (including non US) segregated funds. so you'd expect this to be alot higher than the CFTC data. any ideas?
Thanks SeaTank, very interesting.
Downloads of plus 500 app is getting big from the US. in the last 30 days there have been over 50,000 downloads from the US, thats 18% of the total downloads in the last 30 days. It must be starting to get material.
If you want to track PLUS's activity in the US futures market through Cunningham Commodities, this is the way to do it:
https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/financialfcmdata/index.htm
As I understand it, "Customers' Assets in Seg" = margin or capital held on behalf of clients, which is a precondition to trading activity.
The growth in assets is lumpy. Cunningham's customer assets grew 23% in July last year and almost 40% in the second half, but only 5% in Q4.
For the full year, Dec 2022 to Dec 2023, customer assets grew 75%.
The lumpiness doesn't matter in my view, as long as the trajectory is positive and upwards.
Cunningham are a tiny player, with around 0.13% market share of customer assets.
This suggests to me that Cunningham alone could become a revenue and profit driver for PLUS. The US contributed 5-10% of revenues last year, of which most was Cunningham. If their technology is so very revolutionary, which they claim it is, PLUS will grow this business by multiples.
No idea - I thought turmoil was good for PLUS. Thought this would go to £19 after the results.............but no.
Any ideas what is driving today share price rise?
For long-term holders a reduced share price can still be considered good, since it allows the company to buy back more of their own shares for less money. I'm happy that they made use of the opportunity and increased the amount of shares they bought.
Personally, I was too impatient. I had sold the day before and bought back yesterday, but too early (for an average price of £17.40), since after the good opening I did not expect it to drop so far.
Unless you go through the hoops for a reduced WHT rate you lose 20% so effectively 108p drop for 60p dividend, not a good day today unless you sold out and missed divi.
Oi oi, it's simple maths.
Yesterday it was known that today you'd get £0.75 per share if you held the shares. Therefore you expect the share price to drop by £0.75 as soon as the market opens. Any other movement is just the daily noise.
I do hope so. I'd missed it had gone ex. SPI announced to me at least excellent results today. Obviously I don't understand the Markets!! I was hoping that had gone ex- too!!
Is that why the share price has dropped (as people sell the shares they'd bought to take advantage of the divi payment perhaps)?
Ex-dividend today. Approximately 75p gross and 60p net less 20% WHT.
I'd call the P/e 8 rather than 7 to be comparable to other UK listed companies for the withholding tax on dividends.
Still decent
What I would focus on is simply
The ex div price is about 17.20
Eps consensus, probably fair, is around 240p.
Pe close to 7.
If you only use 7 times on interest earnings that values the cash pile at about a 70 per cent discount! To illustrate for every 100 pounds you earn on cash at about 4 per cent net of tax you multiply by the group pe of 7 to give you a valuation of 28 for every 100.
I noticed that the company now holds around one third of the shares intreasury. With the buy back just announced the potential for the sp to fall must be limited and I am thinking that another 5 years like the last one will see the sp up significantly on the basis of the smaller and smaller number of shares in issue - even if growth stalled!
It's all a guess though isn't it. No hard facts really, despite your Jefferies note. Straight line, exponential, or zero growth, or a big flop in the US, who knows. But if they keep their costs low and variable there is little risk and possibly a big upside in trying to go big in the US
To be clear, they were not explicit on the run rate as per January, but implied it was around that level. If growth to their 2026 target is more straight line, end 2024 run rate will be around $115m, end 2025 will be $180m, end 2026 will be $250m, which is their goal. Profitability will be lower I gather. Assuming 30% EBITDA margin once stabilised, the implied profit contribution will be material enough, albeit probably not transformational. We don't however know how conservative their $250m revenue goal is. It might be very conservative.
The information was in a Jefferies note shared with me.
As per the below statement at Interims, the US biz basically launched around mid last year, which is how I read it.
So it is implied that between mid last year and January the US biz grew from annual run rate of few million to circa $50m. That is already high single digit % of group revenues. I assume that to reach the $250m target by end 2026 this business will need to more than double this year (say to $120m), which is quite possible given progress so far.
So the revenue contribution is already not immaterial on a monthly basis.
"Strong progress made in accessing the US futures market, representing a multi-year growth opportunity for Plus500:
o B2B Institutional opportunity - continued to develop strategic position as a B2B market infrastructure provider, through the onboarding of various regulated introducing brokers in the US futures market, supporting institutional clients with brokerage-execution and clearing services
o B2C Retail opportunity - recently launched 'Plus500 Futures', a new B2C intuitive proprietary futures trading platform. This is in addition to last year's launch of the 'TradeSniper' platform, which now also offers trading on 'event-based contracts'"
Ggplyr. You are right.
What I would like to see here is a USA listing which I believe would see the SP move significantly higher, but no indication that this may happen. The P/E ratio is pathetic.
Ah ok, where have you seen that? (I havent watched the webcast yet).
Do mean its done $50m from june 23 to jan 24?
Sorry $50m as per January, according to what management have been telling people