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keith/bignose agree with all you say today.very disappointing to see all the impetus which we hoped recordati would bring to fortacin evaporating.unless sales are better than we expect,which i doubt,its hard not to see recordati losing interest.so fortacin wise i suspect we are going to have to wait for progress with FDA application before there is anything positive to say.china may help eventually but not holding my breath.on a positive note assuming the FDA application is progressed as proposed(unfortunately give their history thats quite a big assumption re regent),by the start of next year it will not seem quite so far away so may generate some interest as 2020 progresses.the main reason ,however, that i am encouraged in the meantime by the possible change in direction,is not that i think CBD is necessarily going to be the next big thing(it may be but it could also be the next tulip bubble),but rather that if it all goes ahead there will be a widening of the core investor base.until now its really only been mellon as the sole significant investor.with abony on the board i really do expect gibson s performance to come under much greater scrutiny.just going on the anecdotal evidence of the news re EMMAC and its spate of acquisitions over thelast few months i do not get the feeling that antonio costanzo is someone who lets the grass grow under his feet.if he and the others do invest then i expect rapid expansion in the CBD area and if gibson is not able to deliver this he will go.my comments about his loan being converted in effect into a share entitlement to assist in his departure if he fails to deliver is of course just speculation but i do sense a sea change here imo.
Bignose, again totally agree. Initially when Recordati, a big company, decided to market Fortacin I was excited and thought things were really on the move. It is equally frustrating and baffling that they then proceeded to do little to promote the product. I remember looking at their website which provides details of which products are available in the different countries and they had missed Fortacin off the list in a couple of areas where they had stated that it was available. Ugh....
You have certainly got that right "flying by the seat of their pants". RPG/Recordarti evidently have not done one piece of market research and taken it for granted that 1 in 4 male sufferers = lots of sales. How is it they had not even heard about the 2006 German study made on exactly the subject. Did they all deliberately ignore this ? It must have been discussed and readily available in the right circles which RPG and Recordati would have been involved in. If known, they had plenty of time to make preparations before launches. They surely would then not be making such statements as "disappointing", but instead "as expected". A disasters that could have been prepared and actioned against if managed by true professionals.
Thanks Bignose, that all makes perfect sense. It is somewhat frustrating that RP, Recordati et al all seem to be flying by the seat of their pants with their plans for Fortacin.
I'm of the view that the reason there is no news before the content of the nterims is that it will only be bad, otherwise why not bolster the SP before the vote on dilution? I also feel that given how badly sales have been in the E5 and the UK, Recordati will not throw away any more money on launches, they will wait for the US launch which MAY provide worldwide publicity if it takes off, but that's a big IF. And if it doesn't, Recordati will bin it.
As to HK and Macau. 15000 is only about 1.5% of the male population, so they are not expecting to sell many. Makes one wonder why orient bothered to sign on the dotted line. It also makes one wonder why they even bothered to obtain import licenses. Some, myself included, speculated that maybe it was to aid in the China approval, however. I now realise that it was probably just to create some local stock liquidity since business wise, management don't have a clue.
All been written before, but Fortacin was acquired on the strength of being no more than a low-cost add-in to support an ageing urology franchise and perhaps squeeze a bit more out of an established field force.
Initial promotion was in line with what would you would expect for a minor product with well-recognized constraints on uptake: the early abandonment of active promotion may, in part, be due to realization of just how high the barriers are, but more likely reflects the bigger picture of abandonment of the urology franchise in developed markets (crucially, Italy, France and Spain) with the loss of Urorec exclusivity.
My wife and my 95year old mother in law swear by walnuts to maintain and even improve memory....but preference is for cashews...
Yes indeed Bunion. Apologies i really do seem to be having trouble with names today..i hope its not a permanent condition!
Italian.....I assume you were referring to my update from JG...........
Good point. I did make efforts to vote but I had not been sent any info. Still irks me somewhat. Still wonder why Recordati even signed up with RP and paid milestone when they have shown little inclination to promote it from day one.
very interesting thank you bothwell.
As regards Hong Kong/Macau, Jamie has indicated that OEP are in the process of deciding the quantity of cans they need for the launch. 15,000 cans is the minimum batch size so they are discussing having a batch/batches with Recordati. The update will come with the interims mid/late August.
But Keith, everyone, apart from 2 voters, approved of his remuneration, so you cannot really complain about it.
I wonder if the ‘boy wonder’ JG will chip in some of his non-performance based huge salary to help fund the tax payment? Probably not..............just keep raking in the money with absolutely no concern for share price, the LTHs, communication, progression and promotion of Ugh.....
matt I should have added that i completely agree with your comments re Hk or Macau news.the continuing silence here is frustrating and a little demoralising
so its mainly the amortisation charge and the aussie tax.water under the bridge now but i have always said that it was quite wrong to have made no provision in the accounts years ago for the tax liability.the bluster of "we have a strong case and no need to make provision" (my wording) has been exposed for the imprudent and ill judged arrogance that it always was. if the revenue say you owe tax you have to assume they may be right or at the very least have the resources and firepower to push for a settlement. anyway i don't suppose it will have much market impact (i hope ).we shall see
Well we have been notified by the expected profit warning and what appears quite telling to me is that to help calm the market and potential shareholders there could have added to the release that the Hong Kong/Macau is imminent or added some other side note with a little positivity. There was however no such mention of that or other positive news imminent, just the profit warning. Know wonder we are where we are....