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I would expect any new CEO to get their feet under the table and do due diligence before any announcements, unless they are someone who has been on or associated with the team for some time. I expect we will hear one or two things by Christmas.
Thanks JR69, Ive seen the error in my sheet and corrected. Appreciate you pointing that out.
I've added a few extra bits to it as well in terms of milestones etc... so took opportunity to have a good tidy up.
Like you say, potential is off the scale here, every day the SP goes down it just makes the gap to the upside even bigger, I continue to add confidently
I agree that the CEO announcement will trigger upward movement here. Seems sensible PHE will be reluctant to announce anything positive especially if the CEO negotiations undoubtedly contains a share price performance clause. With 3Q2021 now very close, this announcement must be imminent; the downside of not appointing will impact the Protus and Linde situations respectively until CEO news is posted. All eyes open for the CEO announcement, then a flurry of news streams should follow.
sensetalka (and you do!), slight correction on your £1.52 share price… that’s 31 bags from 4.75p not 17, so even your pessimistic outcome is huge! I would like to think we will 100 bag from here minimum over the next few years.
Hi Sensetalka, I missed your response.
I believe there is future value in PHE otherwise I wouldn't join in the chat room, it is just that we need real deals to come through to see any real value.
A good CEO and good closer is essential for PHE to go above 10p, hopefully these are in progress...
Hi alkin,
I replied to your question last Friday but don't think you've seen my reply as you haven't replied to me. Here it is again incase you missed it.
**********************************************
Yes, like most or all small-cap stocks, this is a speculative investment. The math I have done is quite simple though (see here) >> https://twitter.com/sensetalka/status/1438791794247012353?s=20
In a nutshell, I could see in a best case scenario something like £7 - £8 per share (so a 170 bagger) and that's with a conservative P/E ratio of just 15 and an average profit of £400k per DMG (as we have seen recently this will be reviewed and is likely to be multiples of that in some places and only slightly less than that in others, so like I say, conservative).
But let's add even more conservatism to it, let's say that PHE only achieve 2,000 DMG's (not unrealistic given the UK has 77 sites identified already), and let's also say they only achieve a P/E ratio of 10 and let's say the profit per DMG is "only" £300k we achieve a target price of £1.52 so a 17 bagger from these levels - Not bad, I'm sure you'll agree.
Now, how likely is this, what is the risk I ask myself:
Is it feasible the world will not have to deal with a growing problem of plastic waste
Is it likely the ramp up of hydrogen will be scrapped
Does the world not want cleaner air and cheap electricity
Of course, the answer to those questions is no so what other risk is there..
Will the tech not work, well given there are only engineering problems left as each part of the process is at TR9 already, not to mention been validated by DNV and Linde have already approved a press release saying they've completed technical feasibility of syngas cleanup, this is just not a risk in my view.
So what else could stop us from achieving that conservative share price, what risk is there I am not seeing, genuine question to you?
We have strong USP being able to convert mixed, dirty plastics & tyres in our DMG (nobody else can do this), we have a highly scalable licensing business model and extremely low costs. In my view this is absolutely nailed on but open to any views to the contrary as it will force me to go away and add to my already extensive research.
Plastic-tyres etc.....Phe(syngas).....AFC energy(fuel cells able to operate with syngas).......clean electricity plus pure water as a by product.No brainer.
Great post sensetalka
alkin
Yes, like most or all small-cap stocks, this is a speculative investment. The math I have done is quite simple though (see here) >> https://twitter.com/sensetalka/status/1438791794247012353?s=20
In a nutshell, I could see in a best case scenario something like £7 - £8 per share (so a 170 bagger) and that's with a conservative P/E ratio of just 15 and an average profit of £400k per DMG (as we have seen recently this will be reviewed and is likely to be multiples of that in some places and only slightly less than that in others, so like I say, conservative).
But let's add even more conservatism to it, let's say that PHE only achieve 2,000 DMG's (not unrealistic given the UK has 77 sites identified already), and let's also say they only achieve a P/E ratio of 10 and let's say the profit per DMG is "only" £300k we achieve a target price of £1.52 so a 17 bagger from these levels - Not bad, I'm sure you'll agree.
Now, how likely is this, what is the risk I ask myself:
Is it feasible the world will not have to deal with a growing problem of plastic waste
Is it likely the ramp up of hydrogen will be scrapped
Does the world not want cleaner air and cheap electricity
Of course, the answer to those questions is no so what other risk is there..
Will the tech not work, well given there are only engineering problems left as each part of the process is at TR9 already, not to mention been validated by DNV and Linde have already approved a press release saying they've completed technical feasibility of syngas cleanup, this is just not a risk in my view.
So what else could stop us from achieving that conservative share price, what risk is there I am not seeing, genuine question to you?
We have strong USP being able to convert mixed, dirty plastics & tyres in our DMG (nobody else can do this), we have a highly scalable licensing business model and extremely low costs. In my view this is absolutely nailed on but open to any views to the contrary as it will force me to go away and add to my already extensive research.
Sensetalka, what math have you done to be very happy with your investment?
I agree PHE's technology is where we need to be but until such time the orders start flying in, any investment is speculative at best.
So PHE has less shares in circulation and less free float and anyway comparing PHE to any of these so-called peers is a difficult task as each are at different stages in the progress and have different business models etc..
I don't think that right now it's easy to work out which one is the better buy based on number of shares in issue etc..
I can't say I've compared PHE in that depth to any of its so called peers but I have reviewed it extensively against what returns I want and in what timescale. I am very VERY happy to be invested here all things considered. Put it that way
For PHE, the required info is here >> https://www.powerhouseenergy.co.uk/investors/significant-shareholders/
"The percentage of shares not in public hands (including shares held by directors, connected persons and holders in excess of 10% of the issued share capital) is approximately 31.03% of the issued share capital.
Correct as of 7 April 2021"
For EQT the required info is here >> https://eqtec.com/investing-in-eqtec/eqtec-share-capital-information/
At the date of last update as far as EQTEC is aware, approximately 22.27% of the Company’s issued share capital is not in public hands as defined in the AIM Rules.
EQT free-float: 77.5% (I think):
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/EQTEC-PLC-15311783/financials
Although that site says PHE has 61% free-float.
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/POWERHOUSE-ENERGY-GROUP-P-8289122/financials
Apple and Microsoft - good company, love it!
It PHE were an Apple or Microsoft we would all be happy, alas when comparing PHE to its peers, it pays to remember that if they had 10 times less shares, they would be worth 10 times more :-)
Apple 16.9
Lot of shares in circulation isn't great but the free float is only 35%.
I do wonder what PHE are going to do with the mountains of cash they'll be raking in given they'll be breakeven or better with just x3 DMG's in operation.
Share buybacks are a future possibility and everyone invested here is in it for the future potential, not where we are right now.
Hi 1LEO, you probably forgot the most important item, there are 3.9bn PHE shares, this is 10+ times more than most companies.
If you factor that in, PHE shares would be c. 50p. At 50p there would be a lot more volatility...
The investment case for #PHE (Powerhouse Energy)
Undervalued compared to peers
Cashed up
Lots of news due
In very hot sector right now (climate)
High margin, low cost, easily scalable business model
Fantastic risk/reward at the current price