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I think its the market waiting for the results from the initial wells at Bock 125. This is because of the very muted market response to the reserve estimates that came out. I believe that it is a case of waiting to see if the estimates are in the right range.
This coupled with the receivables risk in Egypt has put a lid on the share price.
When the buyback commenced the price was 20.2 (20/07/22). So the price has indeed moved up! However, I suspect like the rest of us you would have expected it to move up rather more. Strange one this, a lot of shares have been taken off of the market to very little benefit. Anyone have any theories as to why this is?
Any idea who is continuing to feed the market ? You would have thought just by virtue of the reduced number of shares (and market cap staying constant) that the share price would show some slight positive trajectory.
The link says everything has been reported so there was a notification. Looking in google Barbara Contini seems to be married to Henrik Stigell a financier so maybe he transferred or it was inherited.
Chevron buying Hess for $53bn, following on from Exxon/Pioneer.
Jim Cramer says stock market undervaluing oil is the driver for this.
Yes. But prompting for TR1 doesn’t always result in one being produced!
If it is correct, you assume the Co must be aware of such significant movements - and might have reached out and prompted for a TR1 disclosure.
Let me just spell it out:
The list is clearly up to date, because it reports Radoff’s stake correctly at 57mn+.
But it also shows that Barbara Contini has over 65mn shares. She wasn’t even on the major shareholders list in March - so (if this link is correct) there has been substantial and unreported shuffling of share stakes in the last six months and, one deduces, these have not been reported to the Company as required (n.b. the reporting obligation rests with the shareholder until they advise the Company).
Rather curious (though not unprecedented, in my experience elsewhere) - and has some significant implications.
Look at the holdings list.....Brad not alone.....
https://www.sharecast.com/equity/Pharos_Energy/director-deals
Nearly 4mn shares traded today. Highest daily volume for about 18 months.
I suspect we are approaching the end of the selling and perhaps will soon hear something on the the total scale of the upside potential in 125…..
Will be interesting to see how much was bought by the company today, out of the 4mn…..
Hi Emtpy, I guess I know that you’re right - it was more born out of frustration than anything else!
The company don’t need telling - they are buying shares at five times the rate of a few months ago.
Clearly there has been an ongoing seller of a big line of stock. Lombard? Or perhaps a Contini? At some point they will be done - and announcements re 125 can bring about a rerating ahead of drilling.
Has anybody told Pharos that due to world events their share price should be moving upwards…?
Just to add.....the total potential of Prospect A alone is roughly equal to Shell's Namibia finds to date.....so 10bn bbls or so, gross.
And there are other prospects inside the 3D area, as well as other leads still being identified by ERCE.....on which topic we may hear more soon?
125:
"The accumulative potential of the Prospect A whole structure is approximately 40bn oil in place. If you were just looking at the initial targeted area it would be approximately 14bn oil in place."
So the initial target potentially has c.4bn boe recoverable, with a c.70% chance of oil rather than gas. You can see why they call it a potential country-maker as well as a company-maker, as the whole complex covered by 3D looks to be potentially 10bn bbls recoverable or so, with more leads continuing to be worked up.
One wonders how the deal for 125 will be structured......
For a few weeks now, I've been sorely tempted to ditch my BP holdings and use the proceeds to buy more PHAR. The chances of SP growth here looks better than at BP and the divi is also higher, may well pull the trigger on Monday.
Still going up……125,000 bought yesterday.
Meanwhile Exxon are planning to buy Pioneer Natural Resources for c. $60bn, according to Bloomberg.
……lets see the terms of that deal - I’d guess it will mostly be for cash, which would probably have a trickle-down impact (if not quite as far, just yet, as Pharos).
I’ll just make this point again. Buybacks were running at 20-30,000 a day for months. Then in September they increased to 50-60,000 a day. Now they seem to be at 90,000+.
Very interesting to see they are wheeling out Vince on the 4th for his debut in a presentation (after 25 years)…….I conclude that they are clearly expecting some detailed questions on Vietnam activity.
I wonder if we’ll get an update on the 125 partner…..and drilling plans…..as well as an update on the inventory of prospects and the materiality of the potential upside……
I see the size of the buybacks seems to have increased somewhat. Perhaps this is due to availability of stock, but perhaps it is due to a need to get a move on whilst they still can at current levels….
Came across this in twitter today, I liked it, gives a very good overview and how the company is cheap and has plenty of potential at the same time:
https://zerogcos.substack.com/p/pharos-energy-a-far-east-turnaround
298,000 shares in the closing auction. Almost certainly not the company and unlikely to be Radoff…….maybe someone new looking for a position (at last) before oil price breaks $100 and the 125 deal emerges?
Watch for an update on 125 plans tomorrow…….😏
Great article, thank you. Unless I’m quoting the same broker report twice, this is the second time that I’ve read a broker note quoting PHAR at around 38p a share…
As I noted in another thread:
“ An independent assessment by ERCE for Block 125 confirms a range of gross unrisked prospective oil resources of between 1,178 MMstb (1U) and 29,785 MMstb (3U) with a Mean value of 13,328 MMstb for the Prospects in the North West area of Block 125 currently covered fully or partially by 3D seismic. These resources do not include Leads already identified in Blocks 125 & 126 but not yet covered by 3D seismic”
Since then, this note was published …..which is worth a careful read:
https://progressive-research.com/wp-content/uploads/data-sync/research/PHAR%2020230810.pdf