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Investors keeping their powder dry for possible "large" (however defined) fine. I don't think this will be the case due to the deal already done with SFO. I expect a very soft landing which will quickly propel the SP over £2. Thereafter appreciation to £4+ as there will be lots of good news being delayed until after the Hearing. Make no mistake the settling of this matter with SFO is a massive game changer for PFC. In a year or 18months time this could easily be back up to £6+.
The following is taken from today's statement & clearly shows that the SFO's part of the deal with PFC is to effectively "support" PFC at the Hearing ("SFO's recognition that Petrofac is a changed company...transformed leadership...etc"). Whether PFC was actually "guilty" of any wrong-doing is open to debate but getting this legal overhang out of the way makes complete sense from a commercial perspective. A return to normality for PFC and a return to a SP (£4+ in due course) that properly reflects the intrinsic value of the company.
"The penalty will be determined at the sole discretion of the Court. It may take into account submissions by the Company as to its ability to pay, along with the SFO's recognition that Petrofac is a changed company with transformed leadership, personnel, compliance and assurance processes."
Brilliant news, we should see it's rising to £2+ soon as a lot uncertainty resolved. Wonder what snapper and other moaners think ? I am on profit now but keep holding until it reaches my target
dyor
This share has been one rollercoaster for me. Hugely underwater after ADNOC dip in March. Doubled my holding in the 90s. Took very juicy profits back when it hit 148. Now back in again. Hopefully more juicy profit here. Wish my other shares were such fun as this!!!
" be the major reason why Asfari left in December 2020. "
BetterX
he didnt leave ...he just stepped down from the Executive Board....became a NED and is still a NED
https://www.petrofac.com/who-we-are/board-of-directors/
The fine should be "reasonable" as previously commented which makes PFC a huge Buy. The horse-trading behind the scenes between the legal teams has obviously been going on for some time and will be the major reason why Asfari left in December 2020. I think that both sides will have been looking for a win:win and this appears to be the best way of achieving that position. Major upside to PFC's SP.
My2penneth, the delay and horse trading will have been on the wording of the plea agreed to. Guilty of bribery is what SFO wanted, not so was PFC's position upto now. Both have seen sense thank the lord....and have agreed on the much lesser charge of guilty of not preventing bribery. My personal take of course...
" I wonder if it was a case of admitting guilt even though not guilty because it was more prudent to do so? "
I don't think there was ever a doubt that they didn't "prevent bribery" ..once Lufkin plea came in....because back in 2017 they immediately overhauled all their procedures and every single employee had to go on a course ....the procedures were not tight enough....
but..the whole SFO investigation was more to do with finding out who at senior level may have had involvement/knowledge ...and ..it seems that despite efforts the SFO has not been able to charge anyone ..or. as a result of 2 senior individuals passing away since...obviously cannot pursue anyway
A court case of an individual would have to be water tight for the SFO to win...
I wonder if it was a case of admitting guilt even though not guilty because it was more prudent to do so?
So, PFC will be squeaky clean now -- pity that the rest of the World isn't (and their SFO equivalents don't try to kick the **** out of their companies to prove a point and they probably wouldn't take 4 years to do it neither).
There is a risk with the Hearing on Monday but already well priced-in to the SP. This will rapidly re-rate after the Hearing assuming that any fine is "reasonable". My SP target is £4+ within 3 months assuming a "reasonable" fine.