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U sell now veteran and then a bid comes the next day for 60p- how would u feel? How ever long it takes it’ll recover just do nothing and believe it’ll rise from the fire. Thats what am doing! DForE isn’t definite
Oil and gas service provider Petrofac’s (LON:PFC) efforts to restructure its debt could lead to a significant dilution for shareholders, according to an analyst.
Last week, the company said it “remains in discussions” with its lenders, with options to exchange equity in the business.
Petrofac has been under considerable pressure in recent months to stem a collapse in its share price, which closed down 20.5% on the day of the announcement.
Hargreaves Lansdown head of equity research Derren Nathan said markets have been disappointed so far by Petrofac’s efforts to restructure the business and shore up the balance sheet.
Mr Nathan said the prospect of Petrofac having to issue shares to its lenders is a “distinct possibility”.
“Investors are rightly concerned that their ownership of the company may be significantly diluted,” he said.
“And for now there is no guarantee further funding will be secured.”
Petrofac ‘rebuilding’ order book
Mr Nathan said while Petrofac is making “solid progress” in rebuilding its order book and sales pipeline, investors are seeking a return to profits and cash flow.
“Progress on that front has so far been disappointing,” he said.
“That’s heaped pressure on Petrofac’s balance sheet. And there’s still some work to do to assure the company’s future.
With talks underway to sell off parts of Petrofac’s business and its share valuation close to an all time low, Mr Nathan said investor sentiment is likely to remain negative until more clarity emerges.
While the low Petrofac share price may appear to be a “tempting” entry point for investors, Mr Nathan said it comes with an “elevated level of risk”.
Any further disappointment would “likely cast a bigger shadow” over the company’s future, which would extend to its shares, Mr Nathan said.
Headcount a ‘key metric’ for Petrofac
To turn around the company’s misfortune, Mr Nathan said Petrofac needed to focus on winning new business, securing strong commercial terms and striking the right balance on its headcount.
“Petrofac is a relative minnow in the energy equipment and services space,” he said.
“That gives it less bandwidth to invest in hiring skilled engineers in anticipation of new business.
“Over-hire and the bottom line gets punished. Hold back and there could be problems delivering projects.”
Delivering on these measures is made more difficult by volatile oil and gas prices, Mr Nathan said.
However, he noted Petrofac has had recent success in securing work in the renewable energy space, showing the company does not have “all its eggs in one basket”.
Overall, Mr Nathan said efforts to shore up Petrofac’s finances are likely to be the “key driver” of its valuation, and he cautioned there are “no guarantees of success” on that front.
It’s a tough call, FOMO being a big factor for LTH’s. I sold two days ago and if I’d held until today would be a good few grand worse off. A bird in the hand etc. whatever anyone decides it has to be their call, if you sell and the rabbit does indeed jump out of the hat then it would be gut wrenching but if you hold and the BOD trash the SP even further that too will be gut wrenching. The profit doesn’t exist yet neither does the loss but the equity is real and it’s your choice as to how you protect it, or not. I’m sitting on the cash for the timebeing and monitoring regularly, if it turns then I’ll miss the initial jump but as it’s always been about the medium to long term I will still end up making something back. At present I know for certain nothing is being chipped away at. As with most things in life whatever you do no looking back and don’t wallow in the regret,
Sorry to hear that Steve, but don't beat yourself up over it - each to their own
Wait until results out first. We know they got giod progress this year and close some contacts . Income not as bad as it sound. The main poin in this company come from top CEO . He is play game and destroys it for his owe gain.
Vet
Very reluctantly I've sold at a loss, can't see a way out of this one!
My hoding was up a tad last Thursday before the board issued a pointless RNS sabotaging my and everyone's holding.
If the board are fighting us and the shorts too then we're doomed.
Gutted to be honest
One thing I am favouring is to hold on. I have decided I am going to go forward holding.
I have held thes shares since about 2104/5 'ish, have managed over the years to get my break even to just over 30p/share.
I don't believe they're going under , mistakenly or not, so having held for so long, and as long as they can maintain and grow order backlog, given another 4/5 years I think they will be north of 30p. I also think that a takeover approach is more likely once PFC have sorted the current f-u c-kup.
--Soooo gonna rest my brain now, relax and (try) stop worrying - it's only money after all!!!!
Value of contracts not currently being realised in valuation.
Once balance sheet improved it would be.
How can D4E be factored into the current price? Surely the price will reduce by whatever the percentage of new shares is on day of issue, as will our holdings?
Not being argumentative, I just want to be clear about what will happen if D4E becomes a reality while I still have time to act.
It’s starting to make sense to me to sell now at 22p if my holding is going to halve when the D4 E is announced. Bailing out is the last thing I want but equally I don’t want to be a snowman sitting next to a fire watching myself melt.
Haven't a clue but find it hard to disagree with your assessment PFC.
The big short companies - OK, taken for granted they want the share price as low as poss - (seems strange that, so far, they haven't piled back in), but let's, for the moment at least, aasume that SS PFC isn't going to sink, then the shorters will at some point have to close their shorts. That means they will have to buy, big numbers. We saw what GLG closing their ssmall short did to the share price, so how much upwards pressure would that put on the price?
Dear, dear, really cluching at straws here!
Must admit it is now roulette wheel time- what a clusterf'''k
All I know is if I sell someone will come in with takeover, and if I hold the price will tank!!!!
Who else thinking the same?
Let’s assume for one moment the BOD have played a blinder last week with the RNS. Then update blows us away? U never know but it’s possible that they actually might pull this off!
Yes future does look bleak- but when this moves up it’s gonna move quickly up and fast. I am sure we will hear next week what the outcome is. DforE factored into current price etc. FFS if you have come this far why sell now!
That’s the take I have on it. For the first time in a few years I am completely out. Taken a loss as a LTH, but after last weeks RNS then who can trust the BOD to have the shareholders backs? They have a different priority and agenda it seems. No point in watching your equity whittle away day by day in the hope of a rabbit being pulled out of an hat. Apart from the backlog and expertise what would someone want to pay up for? May as well sit back and pick over the bones if the refinancing doesn’t come off or heaven forbid they start to lose contracts due to a worsening financial position. Keeping track of this as would love to feel confident enough to get back in but at the moment I got fed up compounding a loss.
If you’re still asking all of these infantile questions after these years then you should give up your gambling Vetrren.
It's possible they just did not want to combine funding update with 2023 results?
Clutching at straws but maybe the results are a beat?
Overthinking my position again here but I want to canvas opinions from other LTH’s about how we win given the cards that appear to be on the table.
If it’s D4E then am I right in thinking the price is agreed with the banks and bond holders for a swap? The number of shares then determines the price per share but our holding is diluted by the number of shares added eg if the number of shares doubled, our holding is halved irrespective of the price per share agreed with the banks. So our price per share would drop from 22p to 11p. Is that correct?
Similarly if additional investment is agreed from certain shareholders or new investors, our shareholding and respective value is automatically reduced by the percentage of additional shares added as a result of the additional placing. Is that correct? If I’m reading the RNS correctly, it looks like PI’s are not being considered for any additional investment initial offering?
If either of these scenarios comes into effect as suggested by the RNS……our holding is diluted and the value of our holding goes down. Correct?
If this is the case, why are any of us still holding if a dilution of our holding is all but jnevtitanle? Wouldn’t it make sense to sell now and the. Buy back in when the D4E or placing is actioned?
Am I being stupid and missing something obvious?
I’m starting to think that the only reason for us to continue to hold is if there is a takeover or if by some miracle the EoY results are better than expected.
Thoughts?
You bunch of clowns really believe anything has happened that’s illegal or newsworthy? This really if the most comical board. You’re just making a crap investment. No column inches or petitions applicable hahaha.
BOD trying to find a way to destroy lth even more .. what has happened on last friday should be investigated.
2023 results have no date just April
What's expected next week?
Yup. Each will have their own risk threshold.
If its good news next week, i will be back to buy and yes, i will pay a lot more, but don't mind that if the risk is lower. ATB
Appreciated @PFCvet
I've also contacted Daily Mail Money trying to highlight concerns and 'jiggery pokery' going on, hopefully trying to gain any interest at all from people who have the wherewithal to garner info. and also put pressure on IR - 'clutching at straws' I know, however we all know the saying.
U bottled? Expecting a pop anytime soon surely. Am holding on … sure rns next week with potential investors/take over?
I've bailed for now and accepted a big loss. Moved what's left elsewhere. Good luck all. If the picture becomes more clear, i will return. I hope for those still invested you do well. ATB
The company has an mcap of 100million.....
With the debt ....
And with D4E looming.
Question is, what it will be without that debt... without D4E looming.
And therefore, what has been priced in at this low MCAP and share price...
Answers on a postcard!