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I am hoping for a bit of good PR over the weekend and copper prices at highest for a while.
It might help me with my difficult choice.
Thanks Lottohopes. I think you have summarised the position now and for the future in a fair and positive way. The suspension was frustrating, the lack of news hugeky irritating. I totally agree, it would be a shame to let that influence decisions about what to do, now we know the potential.
I find your perceptive analysis helps look forward without judgement being coloured by the past 90 weeks, so again thank you. I hope it helps others in the same way.
I will be holding for the next few months and review later. HAGWE and good luck on Monday
Thanks again Lotto.
Your welcome Levistubbs! It would be a shame if we let our previous frustrations here affect our judgement on what we do next. This is the next chapter in this story. Previous holders such as ourselves form only 33% of the new total float. We’ve done the hard part: which is waiting week after week, month after month, indeed year after year. Meanwhile the team has been busy and I expect the time has been used wisely. It’s given them time to cherry pick teams. To establish relationships locally. It’s fortuitous that Cu languished and we were suspended too. First pass prospecting on our new areas, soil studies, geomag studies, rock chip sampling must be nearly all in the bag if you ask me. The plans for scout drilling must be drawn up. Drilling is planned in H1 2020. The CEO has put a large amount of cash in, and controls over 18%. I imagine additional cash will be forthcoming should the need arise (I don’t expect it to). The Wheaton agreement being amended gives us a slightly more meaningful gold exposure too (for over 12 months ie into Jan 2021). Monthly SMM offtake payments will continue (I expect we might not see one for Dec, who knows?) So plenty happening next 6 months to keep interest alive in this story. Good luck all
Great to hear from you Lotto and excellent posts as usual.
Bythesea great post also and ticks just about every box with my quandary.
I think I have resigned to selling those in my Isa pretty early on as I would like to reinvest, and keep those in my trading account. I have nearly 3x in my trade account.
Its strange after waiting all this time and wanting to sell I am now in a quandary.Do I need the money YES. Could I hang on a bit longer PROBABLY. Do I want to sell at a loss NO. Do I think this is a good investement YESDo I trust the market to let us poor investors get some value NOT REALLY.
Three days of agonising to go.
Kovacs is a key academic person in this developing story. She worked in other explorers in the region. As part of her thesis, she re-interpreted the geology of the region, and proposed that Minto and Carmacks are part of the same mineralisation event etc. Pere has consolidated huge land packages to the north and south of Minto-through our 2018-19. As such, this is now an integrated explorer, developer and producer, with a fully functioning $350 m mine-mill complex. The mill will be the hub to which ore comes from the surrounding areas. And we have a copper giant Sumitomo as a “strategic partner”. I know we have had an incredibly hard time waiting through news vacuums and uncertainty, but I remain confident of the company’s vision and commitment to deliver value eventually. Gati and rest of bod putting in big amounts only strengthens my conviction. The big unknown in this story is copper price going ahead. But even that is nicely hedged. If copper goes to say $3 by Jan-Feb: that’s the point at which our current Cu concentrate reaches Japanese port. And SMM will pay us the differential upside, at that point. Obviously it works in reverse too if Cu is lower than presently. All imho only. Please DYOR
Blanka: just a few points to add. The mill is running 2 weeks on and 2 weeks off, until the mine has gotten momentum and produces bigger tonnage. So in that sense the production (at mill) for the 6 week period from Oct 11-Nov end, is merely 4 weeks churn. And this is before ramp up of tonnage.
Secondly value attributable is not just to what’s produced. There’s value in the exploration- both at Minto, where drilling is ongoing; and secondly elsewhere; drilling is ongoing at Minto ). Over 200 sq Km of the copper belt has been staked. There’s value for reserve “in the ground”, and at the moment most of the copper ore at Minto is resource, hence discounted. The prospectus states they have 412kt of oxide ore at 1.12% in inventory: that’s a fair chunk (about $20m worth) even if recoveries are say a realistic 75% for oxides.
All in all, so many value adds and news flow queued up. But it needs to relist first and having waited over 90 weeks, I think we all deserve some magic. All the best folks
Don't forget we only get a third of the revenue.
£33m market cap would equate to a SP of around 50p(sounds very familiar) which would be very nice :)
Hopefully revenue will be more as they’ve stated they want to ramp tonnage up going forward. This simple calc doesn’t consider the debt repayments
Need to know profit they are making on that revenue, but fag packet calculation, on a guesstimate 10% margin gives £3.3m profit per annum (based on $3.7m & $3.4 in first 2 months) looks like huge PE ratio range of 6 right up to 30. Go conservative with 10 and you end up with market cap of £33m. Lots of guesses and unknown variables in here but £8.6m seems on the low side.
Will just be nice to, finally, at least have the option to sell!
So a 8.6m mkt cap producer with so far a 3.6m rev. What does everyone think the right multiple to apply here? To provide a valuation target?
Me too on both counts. I will probably vote Labour as the potential benefits of having a large amount of cash in the bank, as I do, will outweigh any damages. As Labour policies take hold I expect many opportunities.
Regarding PERE, I will give a a few weeks as I expect we will get some good news to get the ball rolling.
Well I would too Humble but we have a third of a project. I think Gati needs to be hitting the ground with a few good Rns but we have had a few of them already while still trying to get the raising away. Still undecided what to do, a bit like tomorrow lol.
I’d like think to think we are worth a lot more than £8.6m Levistubbs, also I would expect volatility early doors , especially considering small share float...good luck all
Is that a deffinate as some are showing 1.25
12.5p per share. A long way short of what DeL Boy was aiming at but he is now relishing in his pay off.
Any mention of a price ? ive stopped reading their s**t after a gazillion years in suspension. I will apologise at 8.01 on Monday if this actually happens......
A shrug of the shoulders from me but at least we are back from oblivion. £8.6m mkt cap. Hopefully Gati can improve on this quickly. Only managed to get £2.5m of the 3 to 5 they wanted so money will need very good management.
Spin or twist is the question.
Finally :)
Riding on the copper price increase.. about time! Should do well
2.5m is not the 3-5 they wanted, but I guess it gives us a chance to trade as a much less diluted company then planned (for a while atleast.)
it is then ; )