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Thanks, it is a good point
I will ask him
The last corporate presentation was issued in May 2022, with timelines to the end of 2022.
We are obviously further down the line with all projects/prospects, but no overall picture or timeline for progression in 2024.
Obviously, Bhukia is largely out of Panthera's hands, but I would like to know when Mark will be issuing an updated corporate presentation and case for investors.
If u wanted to ask the ceo a question. What would it be?
Trying to fix up a chat again
All quiet on the Western Front at the moment. Hopefully that changes in the next week or so...
Worth a re-read of allenbys research note again.. https://wp-allenby-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2023/11/20231109-Panthera-Resources-plc-PAT.L-Allenby-Capital-Update.pdf?c3911=on
– Litigation status: The litigation process against the Republic of India will remain at an
early stage even following the commencement of arbitration. According to Panthera,
proceedings are likely to take at least three and possibly five years. In the intervening
period there is, however, likely to be influential news flow. Near-term, in the absence of
an amicable settlement, the key items are likely to be the commencement of the
arbitration process and the size of claim for damages. We would expect the latter to be
announced at the beginning of the arbitration process probably in early 2024.
Both of these things mentioned can’t be far off now….
S. CLASS
That was very useful. Good looking resource, consistent and very close to surface.
Not sure about the pics of riding the elephant!
Including the final slide showing its a%^&. But each to their own :)
Fme :)
That is one of the best presentations i have seen from.
Colour
Logo
Fonts
:)
I am going to try and speak to ceo again and will ask this.
The market cap can be seen as a fair value of pricing all risks. I was an IPV ( valuation controller) for 20yrs. A market price normally was top of valuation method rather than subjective NPV analysis.
People in the market know the NPV and this is what they will pay for it.
However the standard for analysis might be different in these situations.
Worth a discussion i think
Another critical part of the bull case here is contained in this presentation deck from way back in April / May 2007; https://www.slideserve.com/thora/april-may-2007-private-equity-financing
The fact they were planning an AIM listing in late 2007 / early 2008 pending receiving permitting tells me that they very likely had some fairly advanced modelling of the resource, CAPEX requirements and near term plans...
The fact that they had also received the first foreign forestry and environmental approvals in Rajasthan way back then also has to be pretty useful in terms of negotiating a settlement
Agree on using the likes of De Grey as a benchmark, but think we should be using post tax NPV numbers rather than market caps, which would put De Grey at £1.5b based on $1700 gold...
Oops $90 million!
Pretty certain I read on times of india or similar website, copper at Bhukia valued at $900 million..I assume that's after all mining costs.
I accept i could be wrong.
I find comparing a great deposit ( top 3 in aus), in a safer country with established infrastructure as a good benchmark.
Our grade is higher 1.9% vs 1.3% ish i think but we do have country risk and i think the definition of ore body will be to a lower standard.
Just guesses really, but i want to stay grounded.
I think Verdanta paid 12.55% of gold price to the Indian government some years ago at auction.
Thanks again Gall, always the voice of reason and keeping expectations real! Best wishes HP.
Too hopeful.
Firstly we are valuing as of 2021. But get maybe 20pct more from accured interest on damages.
Look at de grey in australia. They are 1.2 billion gbp, in australia, good exploration upside. Next to excellent infrastructure and skilled labour.
Worst grade than ours.
Gold was circa 1700 usd i think in 2021. Alot comes down to how big we estimate the deposit is
Thanks Gall. Think a read it on here somewhere a while ago from one of our other well researched posters that value in the ground itself normally equates to 10% of current gold selling price. A todays price of just under $2,390 an ounce, would I be right in thinking this works out overall at around 1.65 billion usd based on that 7.3mn oz's? That is also not considering the value of the copper and other potential minerals there that all give additional value, maybe up to something around 2 billion usd?
Missing a key point. The geological service of india, who did drilling and showed 7.3mn oz of gold, stated the deposit was worth over 1 billion usd
That last paragraph never made it 🙈
Fasken:
“Growing companies need legal expertise spanning continents, industries and practices. Fasken provides solutions in all areas of law, for almost every industry and sector.
With a global presence and vast international experience, Fasken is trusted by clients around the world for strategic advice and representation on complex, cross-border and multijurisdictional issues.”
“WE GET THE DEAL OVER THE LINE”
Sorry if this has already been posted before but having done some more research I have picked out some interesting bullet points and my own assessment but would be interested to hear anymore interesting information and assessments from anyone else.
Panthera appear to be in an extremely strong position being Fully Funded by LCM to see this Arbitration through to the end and with the best possible Attorney’s/Lawyers at their disposal it certainly looks like a great Risk - Reward opportunity.
US$13.6 Million non refundable award by LCM to be repaid from proceeds of claim. (Originally $10M, so a 36% uplift, Massive Achievement)
2 Years + already invested by Faskens and predominantly at their own expense.
1 Year was spent by Litigation Capital Management (LCM) through their due diligence process before making a decision to back Panthera Resources with US$13.6 Millions
The Government of Rajasthan (GoR) case relies on three weak arguments that have been repeatedly raised and previously rebuffed by multiple tribunals, committees and courts of India?
An update by Michael Higgins - Non Executive Chairman 29th September 2023:
“A claim for compensation pursuant to the Treaty will involve an assessment of the market value of the Bhukia project immediately before the expropriation. The Company believes that the market value of Bhukia is substantial with the project ranking among the top undeveloped gold projects in the world.
In order to support a damages claim against the Republic of India for breaches of its obligations under the Treaty, the Company has successfully secured US$13.6 million in arbitration financing from Litigation Capital Management. LCM is a leading global litigation financier with significant expertise in international arbitration and cross-border disputes, including bilateral investment treaty claims over mineral resource assets.”
—————————
This bit I find interesting as the gold price is significantly higher now which I would have thought would make it more attractive for GoR to pay Panthera off and allow them to move on with the development of the assets?
“A claim for compensation pursuant to the Treaty will involve an assessment of the market value of the Bhukia project immediately before the expropriation”
——————————
I also found some background info on LCM:
LCM have over a 90% Successful Legal Outcome
Very few applications for financing get through LCM’s rigorous due diligence process and investment comity to funding, circa 1%
——————————
Fasken:
“Growing companies need legal expertise spanning continents, industries and practices. Fasken provides solutions in all areas of law, for almost every industry and sector.
With a global presence and vast international experience, Fasken is trusted by clients around the world for strategic advice and representation on complex, cross-border and multijurisdicti
I would be more than happy with £1/share but I’m mindful anything could happen. An early settlement at less than a £1 is also better than a long drawn out negotiation running into years & years.
Good luck all, it certainly sounds & looks interesting
@DBush yup I will go with that no problems at all.
We might even hear something next week. The auction could possibly go much smoother if our litigation claim is cleared up before hand...
I prefer the split I suggested in my last post which I feel rewards the long term shareholders who have stuck with this company
In the event of an early settlement, it would be good for something like;
50/50..split special dividend for all and top up company funds.
That way wevall can enjoy cash in the bank and look forward to current & future projects.
Agree with Gallmat. These things always take much longer than anticipated, and I won't be at all surprised if we hear nothing material in April/May regarding negotiations and auction results. If there is a chance that the governing party may change at election then there is little impetus for the current party to negotiate a deal. Just leave to the new party to be the bad guys and sort everything out. Suspect meaningful negotiations are ongoing though otherwise we would have probably submitted the arbitration notice as per the previous statements. Fingers crossed for some news soon.
I'm no expert but I'd be very surprised if a legal challenge by PAT fell under electoral purdah rules/constraints as it is legal rather than political.