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Agree with Gallmat. These things always take much longer than anticipated, and I won't be at all surprised if we hear nothing material in April/May regarding negotiations and auction results. If there is a chance that the governing party may change at election then there is little impetus for the current party to negotiate a deal. Just leave to the new party to be the bad guys and sort everything out. Suspect meaningful negotiations are ongoing though otherwise we would have probably submitted the arbitration notice as per the previous statements. Fingers crossed for some news soon.
I'm no expert but I'd be very surprised if a legal challenge by PAT fell under electoral purdah rules/constraints as it is legal rather than political.
I think election or no election the time has passed for delays.
They are held early june so i am hoping there is no delay but we never know
I think it will be longer.
Elections are starting in india and this probably shuts down alot of discussions.
Love the 8th May suggestion. My daughter‘s birthday and she’s always been lucky! GLA
It’s all conjecture and each time I reach a conclusion, I start again and come to something else…
One thing for sure, is that it ain’t 11m like we are worth today.
(Being an optimist, I’m with the prof, and just don’t think MB would accept a lowball figure given the profit once the stuffs dug up…. I think for a quick settlement it needs to start with more than a 5, and think the mine will sell for 1m- 1.5bn $ unless the auction is a sham in which case we head to arbitration armed with other mine sale values)
Hopes and dreams hey… anything over a quid pays off my rental properties mortgages….
Genuine good luck and I hope whatever happens meets whatever expectations you have… as Gallmat said a couple of weeks back, MB seems to be the right person for the job.
Hey Metals, I am with you but,
£350 million ish.
Prof is probably about right with RNS date imo.
Quick settlement from the auction funds £200-250M. Hopefully discussions going on behind the scenes for such a scenario.
PK, I am going to say 8th May - will be happy with $1B claim figure
Is two weeks tomorrow…
Any takers for an RNS by cop on Friday 3rd?
Whether it’s sold or not, it’s significant news for the business, and the outcome I suppose should be reported as per AIM rules…
Only reason why not would be if it’s not made public immediately.
If not sold, question would be is it price or is it because of our claim.
If it is sold, the RNS should be whether the arbitration letter had a first or second class stamp and how many zeroes are we asking for.
Just don’t see how the 2nd may isn’t a notable day either way and I think our nomad would have to issue an RNS…. Gulp.
Yeah defo bed and is a trades at this time of year… Squeaky bum time doing it when there’s news imminent! 😛
They can be bed and isa trades.
You sell from one account and rebuy into isa.
Often you see same sized trades executed at similar prices in new tax year.
You cannot just transfer existing stock into isa account, it needs to be done via a purchase on open market
A lot of the sells today are a repeat of the buys yesterday. Was it a pump and dump that failed or mm's shenanigans or trying to convince longer term holders to sell. Any ideas anyone ? Whatever it was they lost money. Makes no sense to me.
Yep, @sheer, if MB or LCM need a hand in pointing out the obvious shenanigans afoot then they can come to us!
Seriously though, it’s quite clear from just these two articles that some brown envelope from an Indian miner has gone to grease the pockets of the government somewhere along the line.
Totally happy with my investment here as it’s pretty bl00dy clear to any arbitration court what’s gone on.
Pk
Great find PK
Here is an article from the same publication dated 26/02/2013 which states Indo Gold discovered the bhukia deposit;
https://www.business-standard.com/article/companies/australian-firm-strikes-gold-in-rajasthan-107022101011_1.html
"Indo Gold Ltd (IGL) of Brisbane has struck gold in Jagpura region in Rajasthan. The company has discovered 1.74 million ounces of gold at the Bhukia prospect. Once IGL gets its prospecting licence, this would be the first ever open pit gold mine in the country."
"The area to be explored is arid and underdeveloped so there are no issues of resettlement and rehabilitation. However, Higgins said the government was taking longer than usual to grant the prospecting license.
The company requires both the state government's and Centre's approval for getting the prospecting licence."
Vs the 24/02/2024 article you posted which states;
"About a decade back, the state had discovered 113.52 million tonnes of gold ore in reserves in the Bhukia-Jagpura village of Banswara district."
Thanks Pk
Excellent find PK
On the link in the message below, but been keeping an eye here- https://mines.gov.in/webportal/content/ongoingnit
Just spotted on another article a very succinct summary of the brown enveloping that’s been going on:
The state’s trade bodies and businessmen have urged the government to amend the gold mine auction system and provide mining contracts to local businessmen.
About a decade back, the state had discovered 113.52 million tonnes of gold ore in reserves in the Bhukia-Jagpura village of Banswara district.
Full article: https://www.business-standard.com/india-news/rajasthan-s-trade-bodies-urge-govt-to-amend-gold-mine-auction-system-124022600693_1.html
That’s exactly what’s been going on, and that’s your smoking arbitration gun…
Hi Pk,
Where did you find out the bid status for Bhukia pls?
Thanks
My guess is that they are incomparable, i would expect the value per oz of tier 1 deposit vs something marginal to be very different. Hopefully we get some new soon
Looks like last bids received on 12 April….
https://www.myind.net/Home/viewArticle/first-ever-e-auction-for-gold-mines-initiated-by-rajasthan-government
Just trying to research a bit more on the other gold mine for sale in the area, Kankaria-Jara, Albeit much smaller resource estimate, but it would be interesting if there’s any price leak on that one so we can multiply up to get a ballpark…
This article says may 2nd for sale or the bhukia mining license… or another way of saying that is our mining licence..,
Best of luck.. agree that we ain’t remaining news-lite over then next three weeks or so! I hope anyway.
Pk
"In accordance with the Treaty, the parties must attempt to reach an amicable settlement and efforts are ongoing to determine if any potential exists for such a settlement of the dispute. If the efforts at settlement prove ineffective, IGPL will promptly deliver a notice of arbitration to the Government of India."
My working assumption is that if the auction goes ahead, this effectively shuts down any 'amicable settlement' opportunities with the local gov't. This leads to 3 scenarios off the top of my head (there are probably more):
1. Auction delayed (and we should receive an update from PAT in this case, as clearly there will have been a reason for the delay...)
2. RNS released before auction goes ahead with details of some form of settlement for PAT
3. Auction goes ahead and RNS released stating the Notice of Arbitration has been issued
In all of the above instances, the potential for PAT is transformational.
DYOR, usual caveats, etc.
Going off last RNS maybe meaningful/positive negotiations are taking place ?
Definitely approaching a crunch point at Bhukia! Big 3 weeks ahead IMO.