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This is going to arbitration.
Why would they do a high profile politically embarrasing back down. Better to continue and say some foreign tribunal got it wrong. Bias vs india etc!
A settlement will also come at end. Lets say you sell for 800m. And want to pitch giving us 300m.
When would you make offer.
Today? No
Invest 800m at 5pct. And make 40m usd a year in interest. After 5 years you make 200m usd ( free).
Then offer us 300m usd and we accept.
Only cost you 100m!
Ie no more games...and given that we expect news this month...and I think again somebody posted that within 2 months of officially notifying of arbitration a panel ( or something similar) needs to be formed..those dates make sense..
Jmuk...sorry I should have been clearer...I think the poster said/meant either out of court settlement done and dusted or on the cobfirmed road of arbitration
Unless an out of court settlement is made, there is zero chance this is going through arbitration and concluding by June 2024 Deckchair? If management have in fact stated this, it's a bit worryingly naïve. You can add at least a year to that, but likely much more. Even if you have to sit on the shares for 4 years, it should hopefully be worth it though.
I think 'what's happening ' is actually news will be in by the end of March( so could be anytime).
Indeed Mickey.
The management have likely become aware of some development.
Is it:
A) Amazing news from west Africa or
B) some sort of hint on the Bhukia
We will soon find out
GLA
I decided to purchase 4k of shares.
Nothing huge happening. Just illiquid.
I was looking at greatland gold. Similar reserve and grade. But underground mining with huge overburden.
Trading at 350m gbp. I could imagine a nice valuation on this given we are open pit.
My conclusion is indian gov is clever.
Costs them nothing to take the asset. Sell for 700m usd.
The spend 14m on litigation. Worst case pay out what you have in. Beat case nothing or settle for a fraction.
Your mates/ india get a strategic asset.
Good reason to take the asset even if it breaks international law.
No cost to india at all
Looks like we're finally on the way - good bit of positive divergence in the chart - close above 7.2p and we will really be off! Top of the channel and next real test 11.9 to 12.25.
https://invst.ly/13spqj
Can you imagine what serious buying would do here
Yes very good news this morning, the board own nearly 10% of shares in total here which is certainly a big positive. Shares are extremely scarce and it's not hard to see why when you compare market cap vs potential incoming claim size.
Technically we have broken out and set a higher high, this makes sense given the progress made & impending milestones ahead. It would be ideal to retest the 1 year high / resistance at 10-11p before claim quantum lands. Then a claim break above should see 20p+ come into view.
I am sure somebody said on here a while ago MB had previously stated that he wanted the Bhukia issue wrapped up one way or another by June at the latest..if not before.
Definitely shows CONFIDENCE
Excellent news.
They know their share are gonna worth a fortune in time to come.
GLA
Good to see this RNS. Shows a cash saving remuneration system and that the bod are fully aligned with shareholders…
Half tempted to ask my work to be paid in PAT shares at these levels…. :-)
GLA pk
Great stuff today mucho food for thought!
My thoughts are.. news soon and it will be positive.
Arbitration...sp will move up a decent
% of the quantum.
Deal done with the Gov a special dividend for all.
Point of note ...no TR1 sells in ages..
Indeed Adhellas - PAT is under India - Australia bilateral treaty.
As regards UK - India treaty, I only mentioned this since I came across this recently and was simply trying to draw attention on this BB that India is also trying recently with other countries to have the cases heard according to local laws be actually part of the trade treaties which UK was not accepting.
Just wanted to thank the board.
Very helpful.
Well researched.
Not many like it on lse.
Nice to meet you all!
Agree. People however like easy answers. If india sells it for x, they may take that as it is an actual market transaction. Anything else is an estimate.
They could argue it was not fully open to the whole market so underestimate etc.
If there was no sale then it would be much easier to set what u want
Lit.l are good at what they do.
Ceo is out of office for nearly 2 weeks so i cannot get my answers.
This is an interesting stock. Just not sure on a few items.
Also on how long LIT took to agree the funding, I think this is easy to explain. PAT announced the funding when it was conditional, whereas the likes of Prairie/GreenX didn't release anything until funding was unconditional.
It was also 6 months from the first announcement, not 1 year, and they ended up committing more capital than initially proposed.
I just don't think LIT would get involved in a claim like this unless the evidence was watertight
Gallmat, it will make no difference what the government sells the asset for, the value will be determined by the India - Aus BIT. The BIT is essential DD;
https://edit.wti.org/document/show/84d54d73-935f-4f41-87d8-49c7b6e894ec
The BIT states; "The compensation referred to in paragraph 1 of this Article shall be computed on the basis of the market value of the investment immediately before the expropriation or impending expropriation became public knowledge"
As for their attitude towards the litigation, if they've already expropriated an asset why would they care about litigation? Bear in mind Indo Gold got the exploration license back on 2005, the project was then blocked for nearly 15 years before they officially changed the law in 2021, if they were bothered about legal cases then they wouldn't have changed the law...
Nice post Prof
Prof, this is a case under the Australia-India BIT, nothing to do with the UK.
I emailed ceo to see how responsive he is. I do this with all companies to see how they are in person.
I will let you know if he responds to email or even will have a chat with me.
I think 1% chance they hand asset back.
Clearly they know about litigation, they do not care and are publicly advertising in papers the great sale.
I took position on friday but holding at that.
It took 1yr for lcm to agree and in 2 stages of due dilligence. I like lcm alot, following for yrs. But still a bit strange for 2 stages. I follow alot of their cases.
I think the valuation will be quite high just not sure where it will land.