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Rab,
No problems, I agree that we will get significant declines ,but I hope I had that kind of taken into account.
Depending on choke etc, the initial flow rates could be mindblowing, i.e 24 hr lock in rates of 2000-3000. This should decline over the first week of so to a more normal figure and settle after a month or two to the companies figures and thn slowly decline, but still come in very very nicely.
Fwiw, I think they have been very conservative in their calculations - rightly so. With this in mind if the oip figure is substantially larger and everything is better,as they have stated. Then it's difficult to see how some of - the porosity, satuation, recovery, bo figures have not gone up as well.
This is just my personal opinion but I think it will be far better than they externally think. The truth is nobody has done any kind of lengthy test like this in this deposit, so conservative is fine. :)
Iceberg, my apologies. My comments were based on those of another poster with significant industry experience but on reflection they were not the company numbers and specific to the shorter lateral. With the premise being that due to the difference in drawdown at the toe and the heel of the well a shorter lateral will experience a steeper decline rate than that of the longer ones planned for future wells.
The premise of my points still stands however, in that we should expect to see declines in these wells more sever ethan typical conventional wells given the nature of the play. I am pretty sure this will be the focus of any bashers in the future.
Hope this clarifies, company illustrative decline curves detailed in the below:
https://www.pantheonresources.com/investors/presentations/667-investor-presentation-may-2022/file
I do. But I haven't seen any figures suggesting that per frac production would fall to 12.5 bopd after 3 months.
I suggested the pre drill expectations were 25 bopd per frac, rab seems to suggest that it will be half that after 3 months. I haven't seen that guidance so asked for it as it doesn't match what the company has said to the best of my knowledge.
17:18
Hi theiceberg - just checking you know PANR management has issued guidance on Alkaid EURs for the "Tier 1" wells and the "Tier 2" wells? I know Rabito79 knows this, just checking you do?
Can I back this up by asking what you think the production model shows for each production well over its LOL?
Those are the declined production rates, to the best of my knowledge. Their presentation said that alkaid 1 produced over 100 bopd from a single none production frack. I said their production plan before the improved oip etc was 25 bopd.
Iceberg, you need to factor production declines. The wells are planned to almost half in three months. People need to be prepared for this as this is the model.
Pre drill:
750 bopd per 5000ft. So on average 25 bopd per a frack segment.
There was an interesting line that they are holding off their winter plans until the flow test and results can be analysed.
Also we know from the RNS that the Alkaid has more OIP and better recoverable charecteristics than they planned and expected on the vertical - the lateral has improved further.
So are we looking at better figures? It seems to be what they are hinting at. If we plug in 35-45 BOPD per a frac segment, we get 1050 bopd - 1350 bopd. We get revenue of $102k - $144k a day depending on Oil price ranges. $3m - $4.3m a month.
So what if the potential plan for winter is to get 2 more production wells in place, then a further 2 more in summer, before a winter campaign?
If favour of this - we have some a very cheap and easy well - pads in place - possible a second lateral from Alkaid 2 (if thats possible after the set up, I know that's the plan for future wells. If this is possible it would be incredibly cheap).
Low risk - it would also be a much easier winter program and put Pantheon in a better place re a takeover.
So under a plan like this by Oct 2023 we could have as many as 5 laterals providing 9000 BOPD and generating $25m a month.
It wouldn't even require any placing, as funding would be available through debt funding with such an easy model.
It would also mean that we had lots of money by oct 2023 for the more risky winter exploration drills and more production wells.
The company has lots to think about over the next few months but even with its current MCAP its future is nothing short of incredible.