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Darientaylor, the crude is 35-38 API and you need to frac it because the permeabilities are in the 0.1-10md range.
Pantheon have two independent experts reports, one for Alkaid and one for SMD
Mindbender, CharlotteB doesn't appeared to have considered his post against his previous posts. Only a couple of weeks earlier his strategy was very different to the one he is proposing now. It’s the typical long descriptions of a call he has made correctly followed by a quick ‘sometimes you get wrong’ for his purchase in the 120’s. It’s funny how people are only willing to discuss their correct calls whilst quickly sweeping the wrong ones under the carpet.
Dyor dt is the best advise as its all in the webinars......
Why do you need to frack 30 api oil
Do your homework darien then you will understand why, you also make yourself look extremely foolish with your 100bopd statement truely pathetic effort from you.
1oobpd from one 6ft frack, panr will be doing the horizontal fracks that will be 200ft high by 880ft wide and around 8000ft long, they even stated underestimating potential flow rates, all to play here imo.
Green bin for you....that's better
you have driled one well with a flow rate of 100bopd, that is pathetic for a well with supposedly API 0f 30.... truely pathetic.
what did that well cost to go down to 8000 ft.
20p makes this a£150mill market cap company. with a company that produces NOTHING but fresh air at present that's still pretty rich, tell me how you justify £850mill
Charlotte, a pretty considered post - thank you. You may remember me also at the time saying I thought the excessive hyperbole was unwelcome - I agree with you on that.
Some things I don’t agree on though, and would appreciate your thoughts:
1. Would you not concede that the 38% resource upgrade and, MUCH more significantly IMHO, Mike Smith’s unqualified statement that we have a “world class petroleum system” were material new positives that should (in my view but obviously with hindsight this was wrong) have sent the shares higher? And to the extent that lack of perm and poro from Webinar 1 caused the downdraft, this was largely cured by Webinar 2?
2. Whilst I concur Alkaid 2 failure will see the shares down big, why do you seek to downplay the upside scenarios if it’s successful? This is similar to the approach the PH analyst used. In my view, if it’s successful that will represent a major milestone on the road to proving commerciality. It’s unclear to me what will delineate success from failure in terms of an exact threshold number of barrels a day.
3. Finally, I don’t know if you are an E&Ap specialist, but if so, are you able to say whether Pantheon’s technical disclosures about reservoir quality are different than you would expect? Given the relatively small amount of wells drilled in a 23bn bbl oil deposit should we be concerned that the disclosure is insufficient? Would a junior typically put all this commmercially sensitive data out there?
Thanks I’m advance.
ben aying for sometime that the resourse statements by Cheetham are wildly over optimistic, he didn't quite tell the truth about what happened in Texas/louisiana and I suspect he is exaggerating what will come in Alaska. to have a market cap of £800mill is a joke , no production and no independent CPR... look at Zephyr. market cap well under £100mill and have a proper CPR... this is worth less than Zephyr. 20p TP
Re: "Alkaid 2 needs to go extremely well".
I don't think it does need to go extremely well, it just needs to go averagely well. This is because the year-round drilling for Alkaid means the company has time to correct any mistakes. All companies encounter problems like we have seen with the cement etc. But they only showed up because the short winter drilling season of the off-Dalton-highway drills of Talitha and Theta West meant that the company ran out of time, preventing the completion of the objectives this time around.
With Alkaid we've got all the time we need - which will allow us to take our time, no hurry, and get it right.
CB was correct for Panr and neighbors - about SP. (UN)fortunately. Face it ...
Good to see 5% of the company about to be equitised by conversion of mgmt share options, days after the 2 webinars. I'm sure if they are confident about Alkaid etc not a single share will be sold. ;)
Thanks for post Seahawk and I’m sure sentiments are shared by all
Acts of nature uncontrollable but human error possibly avoidable
I appreciate too this is oil exploration and it comes with all risks
That’s why we’re at £1.09 and not £5 at present
But with alkaid being on Dalton and taps close by and all year. Workable site any problems we will have timeframe to remedy
My thoughts only plus a few quid in the bank too doesn’t hurt
Good
Luck all
What if it all this will not happen? :(
They do Sunzoo but this drill during the Summer at Alkaid 2 needs to go extremely well. I can except if nothing flows because the oil is not there, but I will not except it if we have more costly mistakes that allow people to once again say its not commercial. Its not an all or nothing play but it needs to go right for the company to really get going. No more cement in the wrong place, no more crew running out of hours, no more not being able to run wire logs, make sure the right fluid used when fracking and make sure its the right proppant etc etc.
surely the management team deserve the opportunity to deliver at Alkaid before being judged?
Agreed .
One was hoping after all the failure, and with all the time and money, they would have clearly reached their objectives
Management's explanations and spin at seminars not the same thing
Mindbender there is actually quite a lot of new news. For instance the fact they ran out of crew time whilst fracking the SMD and then after completing the frac the next day bad weather came in for five days which meant they could not flow test. Also new was the mention of 400 odd barrels flowing before it came to a sudden halt. Now that flow would have been frac fluid and oil and the fact it came to a sudden halt helps with the blockage theory. Leaving frac fluid in the well for 5 days will have undoubtably had some effect on the fracs. I have to say I am quite annoyed with the fact the crew ran out of time mid frac as that comes across as dads army stuff. With the money being spent here there should have been crew available to complete the frac eg 24 hours a day as its so critical. They would also have known that bad weather was coming. This interview comes across as a bit panicky due to the SP fall and I am not sure its going to help jittery nerves at all. Waiting on Scott!!
Always nice to hear from Jay although nothing new in this interview.
Thanks, Neil, for that very useful link.
I think Jay is a very good communicator and I am very confident in my PANR position, despite the SP recently being slightly less than stellar.
The SP may continue to feel a bit of stress because of the institutional reluctance to invest in O&G at the moment but the aset would seem to me to be very VALUABLE indeed and that the SP currently nowhere near reflects the potential VALUE here.
I am quite excited about my position in PANR and have been buying more recently. It is not as big as my position in PRD but heading in that direction...
Direct link:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jkjKLh7aGRM
He's been a busy bee hasn't he!
I'm very confident about the company's prospects, with the Peel Hunt report presenting an open opportunity for new investors to get in and sample this great growth company. It is to his credit that he doesn't criticize the report but instead invites investors to make up their own minds based on the evidence.
Just to add, we should also see the positive in it. Rather as Ryanair says there is no such thing as bad publicity, the Peel Hunt report will encourage a new set of investors to take a look at what we have to offer. Many of them, over the next few weeks and months, will come to the conclusion that we are the definition of a good contrary investment. This could create an upward trend in the share price as their buy-requests are fulfilled.