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I'll give you rude, Tony. You had the gall to accuse Alaric of not listening to the CEO when your own post proved that you either hadn't listened to the CEO or had no comprehension about what you listened to.
Tony doesn't wish a to and fro so for the benefit of all other readers:
1) Next step for Alkaid is a LTPT => allow classification of reserve status. No-one is stating anything different. As for environmental concepts..... be specific and quit scaremongering. There is nothing about Alkaid and the environment which is any different from elsewhere on state land in Alaska *except* the massive benefit that much of the future activity will be located on *already classified disturbed land". A benefit for PANR, not an added risk as you infer.
2) Pikka/data collection/time/money. Results will define the answers. You asked. A question about number of drills and I replied - there was no contest there??? On all metrics, and with the caveat the geological is proven the time and investment required will be shorter in duration and far less in capex. There are no cost/regulatory/logistical factors you can point to which do not show PANR's acreage to be far superior in NAV terms, with geology being a. Fully accepted caveat.
3) Of course there were multiple flow tests at Pikka. You wrongly stated Pikka had reserves which would have required LTPTs. Be a man, show some honour and admit you didn't know the difference between reserves and resources nor the requirement for LTPTs. Hard to take any other human seriously if they believe they never make mistakes in life.
4) First oil/trucking - have some respect for yourself as an adult and for other readers of your public content. At least do some reading/research/webinar listening before thinking your opinion is the equivalent of the established facts of the investment case.
5) Fed v's SoA land rights. Yeah, I am saying exactly that. As part of my law degree I elected to study US Constitutional law. Happy for you to inform me of the Amendment number which permits the Fed govt to legislate on state's reserved powers/ownership of land. Tip? There isn't one.
6) You should re-read my Keystone paragraph. I specifically mentioned Fed and Native American land for a reason. Domestic sovereign law trumps international treaty law....always has, always will. Even if Canada has a valid claim, shy of invasion enforcement will be impossible.
7) More research required, Tony. PANR's model indicated sector standout *low cost of production* and I already provided the source to rebut your 6 - 7 year nonsense. I don't know what broker research note you're reading but it's massively misinform you. If you're solely responsible for your own research and sourcing then your efforts are objectively pathetic and factually wrong.
8) The market is almost entirely focused on Farallon and the SP. Fundamentals will out eventually, they always do.
Do better, Tony. Facts are your friends, not your enemy.
No worries, tonynorstrum1. You may very well think my reply was OTT but to remind you and all other readers, I'm not the guy who despite not knowing the difference between reserves and recoverable resources still had the entirely misplaced self-confidence to spout even more factually incorrect content on a public forum.
Serious question. When you post content that you know you haven't fact-checked, does even 1% of your conscience stir with that mature acceptance that generally comes from adulthood that you have a responsibility to your fellow man/woman/investor not to misinform them?
I refuse to believe we as a society think so little of each other's welfare that we don't give a sh** about misinforming each other. C'mon Tony, we gotta be better than that, don't we?
Scot123,
I don't want into a big back and forth - but I do want to briefly address a couple of points.
Ref your comments about about by surname, whether English is my 1st language and by reference my intelligence in general. I recall you complaining about a previous poster questioning your mental health - to call others rude and post comment such as these - a little rich me thinks !!
There are a lot of pretty clued up people on this board including yourself - does not mean you are 100% right - in fact there is a lot of fluff and hot air in what you have written.
To clarify my earlier comment about Alkaid for Alaric- I know of no issues specifically with Alkaid other than the general concerns about commerciality and environmental which applies to all assets-apologies to SH if this was read as a deliberate attempt to cast doubts on Alkaid
1) PANR need a further 4 or 5 drills to reach an equivalent state to Pikka (your opinion) . I didnt say anything different- assuming you are right - how many years and how much cash / dilution will it take to get there ?
2) Ref: Flow tests on Pikka which I think you originally brought up a month or so back. I didn't say that they were long term tests or otherwise - however, by your selective use of facts and indignant tone - I'm guessing that there were multiple tests over more representative % of the acreage compared to PANR.
3) Ref to 1st oil - trucking to the 1st pump station - really - that sounds like clutching at straws - how commercial is that ! I'm not sure how feasible that is on a larger scale bearing in mind flaring considerations etc not to mention the cost of trucks driving up and down in the middle of the arctic.
4) Environmental / permitting risks - I didn't say that SoA law did not provide certain protections - If you are saying differently then you have misrepresented my comments which I think you have done repeatedly in your response. Are you saying that SoA laws provide cast iron protection against the Federal Government - if you are - I think that that is doubtful to say the least.
I provided an example of the Keystone - whilst not exactly the same scenario - I think it does provide a warning. The Canadian's believed that it violated a bilateral Energy Treaty dating back to 1982. It has not necessarily been accepted (as you state without any context) - it was subject to a lawsuit that was raised during the Obama administration before being dropped when Trump approved the permits . The fact the the Canadian Prime Minister is no longer challenging the decision in public does not mean that he doesn't think it a breach of the treaty. I dont think you can claim that environmental / permitting is not a risk - I bet its listed as a risk in PANR's annual report.
In summary i'm saying that any oil 6-7 years from production, especially relatively high cost oil in Alaska in the current political environment is at risk and I think that is what the market is currentl
tony , if i might make a suggestion - perhaps focus on the substance of the points made against you and less on the form? in my case, to remind, that involves you substantiating your statements that Alkaid was being sold and that there were problems with that.
Alaric,
"...feel free to jump in anytime Scot! " - whaaat - you don't think he's jumped in ?!
Scott126,
"Tony – you may feel I’m being unnecessarily cruel to you...." - I think your response is way over the top - I'm beginning to think that some of the earlier criticism of your style had some merit. I think that you are probably way over exposed here - that's what I really think !
I have not read your diatribe in full yet - I switch off after the 1st couple of sentences.
I hold a couple of shares, but my interest in PANR is a little luke warm at the moment, a bit like the markets interest in PANR's shares !
15.31 - I’m all ears with respect to your presentation of said incontrovertible evidence to support your ridiculous position stated:
“ tonynorstrom failed to respond further to my challenge of his remarks about selling Alkaid. in my book that's a technical retraction. not responding to specific questions seems to be an accepted behaviour amongst some on these boards”
well Draig i wasn't exactly envisaging a criminal court as the context for my observations but, as far as you go, indeed 'no comment' doesn't per se admit guilt in that context. you fail to mention however those situations when courts will allow an adverse inference to be drawn from a defendant's silence. these tend to be where incontrovertible evidence of the defendant's guilt has already been adduced. thankfully here we are just a blogging board, so people can draw all the adverse inferences they want from a troll or whomever failing to respond sensibly to specific questions. when expressed like this, you may be able to see how ridiculous the barrack room can look from time to time.
13.42 - in law 'no comment' does not mean 'guilty'...I think thats what you're implying...when expressed like this you may be able to see thats pretty ridiculous...
feel free to jump in anytime Scot! as you saw, tonynorstrom failed to respond further to my challenge of his remarks about selling Alkaid. in my book that's a technical retraction. not responding to specific questions seems to be an accepted behaviour amongst some on these boards, particularly those who initiate (bad) points subsequently shown to be nonsense
(cont'd from post below)
Tony – you may feel I’m being unnecessarily cruel to you. In truth, I couldn’t give a monkey. I’d far rather all readers of public forums read and go on to assess the *facts* of an investment case prior to making, or not making, an investment than worry for one millisecond about some poster who flat out refuses to be corrected on his errors thus displaying no regard whatsoever for the consumers of his content. The selfishness of this attitude astounds me. Do better, Tony, or just quit posting here because, and please believe this in the serious manner in which it’s written, you are providing zero value add here. You *think* you are, I’ll grant you, but you’re not.
Tony – jumping in on your chat with Alaric on Saturday @ 21.08
I am now going to declare an opinion. You, tonynorstrom1, are an exceptionally rude man and I promise you that your understanding of even the basic foundations of the PANR investment case is sub-par. My eyes nearly popped out of my head when you replied to Alaric, “Have you not being paying attention to what the CEO has been saying?”
In that one sentence you have set off a blaring “Warning, Warning!!” klaxon to all readers with even a passing knowledge of PANR and/or E&P listed companies. Why TF would PANR have wanted to sell off Alkaid (NB your choice of past tense)? What on earth are you on about? It is *you*, tonynorstrum1, who hasn’t been listening to management. Did your ears have a sudden malfunction when management has been guiding on the steps required to drill a lateral production well by the roadside at Alkaid and to then truck the oil approx 15 miles north to Deadhorse? And you honestly thought it was an appropriate thing to do to ridicule Alaric for not listening to the CEO??? That is an imbecilic point you tried to make and you fell flat on your face. [Plus we now know there is the possibility the Kuparuk, SMD and SFS are *also* present at various locations within the Alkaid Unit. Why TF would PANR wish to sell Alkaid without first establishing the quantum of upgrade to TRR never mind the LKA approved contingent resource? Madness, complete madness.]
Tony – if, and it is still an if, PANR/eSeis’ geological model is correct then, quite literally, hundreds of wells will indeed be required to fully exploit the acreage. You are quite correct that PANR is *highly unlikely* to be the main operator when such development occurs – totally agree with you there. But that does *not* mean that E&P companies the world over don’t attempt to move as far up the value curve as they possibly can before securing an exit for shareholders. You say you’re an 88E shareholder, or you were a shareholder. In that case you’ll have heard Dave Wall use the following phrase repeatedly: “cream the curve”. It’s no different for PANR. If you were happy with DW “creaming the curve” then why not PANR? Your inconsistency makes no sense whatsoever.
Yes, PANR requires funding for its next operational activity. The webinar dated 20/4/21 was quite explicit on that matter. How else do E&P companies the world over pay for their drilling activities? Have you, tonynorstrum1, discovered the mystical money tree??? My personal opinion is that the likelihood of proceeding with a farm out as the source of those funds, as opposed to an equity raise, has increased markedly due in no small part to the equity market’s unwillingness/inability to properly value PANR’s equity. For me, that would be a shame because I would prefer another 12 months of 100% asset ownership but it is what it is.
(cont'd)
6) State v Federal land. You’re factually wrong again because it *does* bring certain specific guarantees in law. At the core of the US Constitution is the concept of states rights. Unless you believe the rule of law is under threat in the US then the SoA will remain the landowner, regulator and royalty beneficiary of any and all oil production from PANR’s acreage. The US Federal govt cannot legislate on matters reserved for the states, with land ownership being one of those key constitutionally guaranteed rights. Constitutional amendment? Aye, maybe. The last one attempted was in the 1920’s and, from memory, only just over 30 states have signed up to it as of this year. If you are to speak publicly with such certainty on a subject, it surely behoves you to do a minimum amount of background research.
7) You need to re-read your sources on first production at Pikka. You state “30k bopd only a year or two away”. This is complete poppy****. Kindly go to the OSH website and access the latest corporate presentation which updates shareholders on timeframes to first oil in Alaska. Here’s a genuine challenge for you, Tony. Show the readers you’re a gentleman with some honour and that you’ve learnt a lesson about guessing/opinion v’s facts. Come back on here, withdraw your original statement, correct it, admit you erred and apologise to the readers of your post.
8) If, and I repeat if, a production well is drilled at Alkaid in the Summer/Autumn then the oil produced will be trucked daily to Deadhorse and sold into TAPS at Pump Station No 1. PANR’s first oil production will therefore be years ahead of OSH/Repsol’s at Pikka.
9) I note your Keystone comparison. The pipeline was to run through Federal and/or Native American land - fact. The Democrats ran on an explicit “cancel Keystone” election pledge – fact. The Canadian PM accepted the cancellation on that basis with no legal challenge. PANR’s acreage is located on SoA land, TAPS is located on SoA land, the Dalton Highway is located on SoA land. Now what’s your point?
10) Politics and the green agenda can indeed move swiftly, and I hope they do as it pertains to global carbon emissions. Developing low cost acreage adjacent to legacy infrastructure in a US state which relies on natural resources for >90% of state revenue and a stable legal system in a country where both main political parties are determined to remain energy independent is exactly where I want to be investing. If politics changes so swiftly in the next 1 – 5 years then the most immediate impact will, logically, immediately be reflected in the global POO. My analysis suggests Alaskan oil will be a net beneficiary of any such unexpectedly rapid move in politics. If I’m wrong, the POO will, thankfully, give me good warning.
11) I note your comments on risk. That is your personal call and no business of mine.
tonynorstrom1 – replying to your post on Friday @ 10.15am.
1) Nope, my post prior to yours was all pretty much “fact”.
2) Serious question. With your surname of “norstrom”, English may not be your mother tongue. Is English your primary language? If English is indeed your mother tongue then perhaps you’re just ignorant or genuinely rude? I corrected you about OSH not having any reserves, rather contingent resources at Pikka/Horseshoe. Not a word of acknowledgement, not an apology, not a withdrawal of your previous assertion. Is there any other explanation for this omission other than non-comprehension of written English, ignorance or rudeness? Maybe you’re just a simple troll? I’m being deadly serious here.....I do not know any market professional who would not immediately acknowledge a factual correction, no matter what a p**** they were in the office. Kindly try to do better.
3) Time to equivalent data capture? Hmmmm, my *personal* opinion is 4 or 5 more drills. I am, however, very confident that PANR will have reserves years (4 years minimum IMHO) before OSH/Repsol at Pikka.
4) I have a factual answer for you on the LTPTs at Pikka. Zero. Zero is the answer to your question about LTPTs at Pikka. Due to the location and lack of infrastructure, flow tests thus far at Pikka have been measured in hours and minutes rather than days and hours. Educate yourself, Tony.
5) PANR has successfully flow-tested Alkaid, and sadly achieved only a partial result at Talitha (Kuparuk). You conveniently forget the Alkaid flow test in March/April 2019. Why is that? Ignorance of the facts or wilful omission? Being unaware of the facts of an investment case is nothing to be embarrassed about because a curious mind and serious questioning of fellow shareholders will soon address that deficiency. What is completely unacceptable and pathetic is misinforming the other readers of a public forum with no regard to uncovering the facts. The facts could not give two hoots about your opinions, Tony, the facts are the facts.
just to be clear about the permit to drill Alkaid from a pad this Summer, that effectively means it can be drilled all year round. because this is right by the haul road, access for rig and associated people and equipment is easy and quick. not much drilling like this going on in Alaska during Summer and Autumn so contracting a rig quickly should not be problematic
09.48 - I'm aware what Justin said. I just think it'll be a push from a timing and funding perspective to run this in the autumn. They are still actively seeking and FO partner for Talitha revisit (testing of the other zones) plus running the further analysis on Talitha / seismic re calibrations and I'd very much hope they are putting some effort into working with their brokers to assist Farallon's exit as the board should hopefully be more reflective of the depression that the situation is having on the share price and the distortion in value for any positive underlying results they issue.
The PANR finance chap in the Talitha webcast says that the summer drill realistically will be an autumn drill.
18.15 - Its the middle of June already which I'd classify as summer....do we have the funding and schedule for summer testing? Does anyone consider time to be running out for that this year?
correction : 'exploration' should read 'appraisal and production'
you mean a farm out? sure yes of course they're looking at deals to fund further exploration. but you're talking of selling Alkaid ? and there being issues with that? what are you talking about exactly?
Alaric,
Have you not being paying attention to what the CEO has been saying ? I recall him saying that there are much better Companies our there (I think he means with cash, resources and expertise) at putting fields into production and drilling wells. PANR are still looking for funds to continue testing !
... and why on God's earth would we be selling Greater Alkaid, after its successful flow test and the data from Talitha#A ?
what issues are those precisely?
Rabito,
I stand corrected - I forgot about Alkaid. However there are issues with Alkaid also - why has it not been sold yet ?
To me a few billions seems excessive. Even if we were to to dilute 100% from current market cap. That would give us >$200M and fund 10 drills. You would be looking at 1.4Billion shares. That’s the worse deal possible ignoring share price increases after hopefully successful drills and also ignoring revenue from any wells drilled from the Dalton. Each well could bring in ~$30M per year.
Also I believe Jay when he states the industry will value us more than the market. There a 10-15% farmout could get us the money we need for 2 drills and the flow test.
If things go well, and understand it’s a bigger if for some, we could be looking at 3B barrels and a take out price well in excess of $5B and likely closer to $10B.
Surely the other difference is funding. PANR need to raise a lot of money to move to the next step or they are going to farmout. More likely both. So until those are resolved satisfactorily, the value will not out. A fund raise of $50m would dilute a lot but allow them to drill again next winter. But then what? Same story, and the longer it goes on the less value for shareholders.
We do have a lot potential reward here, i would not argue with your figures there. But if it is spread over a few billion shares we haven't made any money. I do agree the risk / reward is still there which is why I still hold. But until they get something to flow, they effectively have nothing of value.
Roll on summer testing at Alkaid.
JL