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Welcome back, Scot. Thanks for your time and input.
Good luck to everybody, and I mean everybody that wants to see their investment grow over the next few weeks.
Having sat in the sidelines and read the last few days of posts from the likes of goldstinger Scott and Ford amongst others
I can only conclude there is a lot of views and emotions flying around and well informed views and amazing amount of input from all incl Scott which I and I’m sure a good of others are appreciative for and your in depth knowledge
Where we lack it
All I. Can add is I believe we’re all invested here at different levels and wish the company to do well and thus us
So I hope all goes well tomoro and the next few weeks and we all get the results we’re looking for
And without being flippant it is only money and health in my book comes a long way in front in these mad times
Good luck all
Thank you Z,
Looking forward to the webinar for sure!
Enjoy the rest of the weekend.
GLA
As I say, I know a lot more now than I did. I didn’t think I knew more than anyone or anything. People post make your own decisions and I did. I own that decision and have moved on. Let’s all do the same. I look forward to the weeks ahead.
GLA
13:04
FORD707 - that's a very honest and interesting post. Very illuminating. Thank you for posting.
Going back to your post timed @ 10:48 today. You wrote of the SN, "I do believe they have value and oil within their leases." There's that word "believe" again, rhymes with "hope" and "faith", doesn't it? Listen, they undoubtedly have hydrocarbons located on their leases. Trouble for them is that even if there are huge great pools of the stuff at Yukon, Peregrine and Umiat they are entirely, and I repeat entirely, beholden to supermajors and billions of dollars of infrastructure before a gallon of commercial oil will ever be produced in any of those locations. This is a fact, not an opinion, a fact. Thus the NPVs of these projects are tiny -> zero. You don't have to believe me, oh no. Just look at what the group of Alaskan oil veterans who made up APDC did *after* the results of Merlin-1. Do you remember? APDC sold their 50% of Peregrine back to the SN for $14m. Also a fact. Genuine question, honestly put. What makes you think a UK-based construction firm owner knows more about the value of some NPRA leases than Erik and all his oil veteran mates? They've given you the value of Peregrine in broad daylight, FORD707.....$28m total.
What of Umiat's 100mmbo reserves. Yep, as you say, the oil is there. But it's been sitting there for 70 years since it was first discovered. How come? Because it's sooooo isolated it cannot be produced commercially. Why else do you think Dave Wall was able to buy it for $1m??????
The only real value in the SN's leases are in Project Icewine. Those leases could be incredibly valuable some day soon. The thing is you can buy 90% of the combined PANR/SN oilfield for £550m and 10% of it for £300m. As the Americans say, do the math!
All of the above is from a fundamental viewpoint. I am not suggesting for one millisecond the SN's game of pass the parcel won't work for some traders over the next few days/weeks. But that's all it is, a massive game of pass the parcel. I say to you directly, be like Dave Wall, Erik Opstad, ELKO, APDC, Brom, jofshobbit and all the other players who make up the SN - be sure to sell some/all of your SN shares over the course of the current drilling season. I do not want to read in 2023 that you "did not sell a share in the SN" as you said about the 2021 season.
Hi Zeusvalhallah,
You are correct in all that you’ve said right there. I have thought about that nearly everyday for a year. As I say I started a year ago and know a lot more now than I did then. I will not be someone that wouldn’t or won’t admit when they’re are wrong. I listen to everyone and believe that if you can learn one thing from everyone you meet you’ll make a lot fewer mistakes. However, I wasn’t pumping it to get people to buy, I genuinely believed they would succeed. I understand more about prospective, contingent and proven. That is why I’m now in pantheon and predator as are you. I try not to get angry but even. In my defence I didn’t post back to you when you hit me when I was down. However, I don’t bet what I can’t afford to lose and have a lot more skin in the game now I have learnt. I own a construction company and wanted to invest as well. My company wasn’t built overnight and I didn’t expect my investment company to be either. Good luck to us all and really hope pantheon can hit a home run this year!
GLA
Good morning,
No, I’m certainly not pumping it! I do believe they have value and oil within their leases. However, I know a lot more now than I did a year ago when I started buying energy stocks. Hence pantheon being a lot further down the road to proven resources as apposed to prospective. Let’s have a convo in a few weeks time about it. Appreciate the conversation m8. I know you angrily stated once upon a time that “you’re not my m8” but I mean it respectfully.
GLA
09:58
Hi FORD707 - that's the thing, I *have* explained my rationale loads of times, on both forums. Very gently put, you either haven't read my multiple posts of explanations or your mind hasn't been open to comprehending them. No worries, you've comprehended now which is appreciated at this end.
You wrote: "I agree if people are hoodwinking others for their own gain doesn’t sit right. Everyone has different agendas and beliefs." That's a pretty clear point of view. I'm not suggesting you waste your time doing so but that is *exactly* what I believe is happening with the SN, as do Rabito79 and olderwiser and many others. Not only that, it is my contention that prolific posters including the most prolific of them all know that's exactly what is happening.
They do not share my values, which is fine. What is not fine is them shamelessly misinforming and misdirecting naïve simpletons and not responding to legitimate questions when they know the answers just as much as I do. It's all good and well replying 'caveat emptor' until you see tweets from uneducated folk such as this US OTC SN shareholder: "True - it would be nice to have them [88E] eliminate a good portion [of shares on issue] to help drive the price per share toward .25¢ initially. We would be trading the same as Pantheon $PTHRF at $1.00"
No comprehension of mkt cap, no apparent interest in the characteristics of the assets held by the two companies. This scares the living bejesus out of me.
FORD707 - I appreciate you're not spending 16 hours a day ramping the SN on US bulletin boards (well, I don't *think you are, are you?!) but it's clear some are. The guy from Ohio who's been indicted by the FBI/SEC was just getting on to 88E last year before he was arrested. I am straight up telling you that I cannot, no matter how hard I try, get to a valuation much above £50m for the SN. And certainly not into 9 figures of mkt cap (>£100m). JFC, there are some members of the SN twitter army who reckon they're shareholders in a company which has 1.6 billion barrels of reserves (they don't) times $85 per barrel "and that's how much we're really worth".
One of my sparring patterns on the SN forum on this site admitted a couple of months back that it's a meme stock now, having no association with the fundamentals. He was spot on. If you want to play the high stakes game of pass the parcel and not be too greedy and make absolutely certain you're not left holding the shares when the music stops, then knock yourself out. Be like Brom and DW and ELKO and APDC and be sure to sell some/all so that you will not be able to tell folk like me in 12 months time that "you haven't sold one SN share."
Please be under no illusion that you're playing pass the parcel. The current valuation bears no resemblance whatsoever to the value of the SN's assets, never mind what may happen when the "pass the parcel" music is turned up to 11! As was said in Hill Street Blues, "Be careful out there!
21.03
Scott,
Fantastic piece of work. Many thanks for your time.
Morning,
Can I change my answer to the question please :)
I think I understand what you are saying and wish you had said it before. You feel that making money out of 88 is immoral. Ok, that’s fair enough that you feel that way. Everyone has the decision as to when they buy/sell, what they buy/sell, how much they buy/sell. I agree if people are hoodwinking others for their own gain doesn’t sit right. Everyone has different agendas and beliefs. Although I do feel that slowly we are losing the right to express ourselves freely. We have had different upbringings I would of thought. I don’t particularly trust anyone I haven’t met to a certain extent. If I think a share price will go up and I can make some money then that’s what I’ll do. I’ve been in here for nearly a year and haven’t sold a single share. I believe in pantheon enormously and would prefer to concentrate on them when I visit this board. Thank you for the time you spend and have spent on this company and sharing it with us.
Have a great weekend.
GLA
Hello Scott126,
I don't post very much on any BB and I'm less inclined to be drawn into discussions.
Thank you for all your input on this board and especially for yesterday which clearly took a lot of considered effort and time.I considered it well worth the read.
Ignore those who are clearly out to bait you. (I'm filtering GS as I don't consider him worthy of engaging with, he wont be alone).
Wishing you all the best.
AGD62
Oh sh*t. What have I done. Sorry all. ;-)
Hook line and sinker...
I particularly like this quote " What on earth is the point of moaning on a public forum as a shareholder? All you’re doing is affecting the emotions of other shareholders and demotivating any readers of the forum who may be conducting their DD prior to investing by assessing the mood of the shareholder base? Madness."
Madness indeed. Who's madness?
Jay's grin, I agree, is not something that should be discussed again. We all know why it was a stupid thing to do, especially given that they have declared that they want to sell up (not getting any younger!). But do you not see the contradiction in your post by posting it again. Hmm.
GS
:-D
continued for FORD707
In the end, it's all about maths, relative valuations and personal values. I've put my money where my maths and relative valuation calculations have taken me. I'll stand or fall financially on this particular investment based on my own research and my own decisions. No worries on that front. What I will not do, perhaps unlike you (?), is to forget about the poor saps in the US OTC markets who are going to be left holding your shares at this year's equivalent of the US9c intra-day high for SN last March/April.
I 100% accept you just cannot understand why I think as I do. I don't know how else to explain it. You and I just have different values, that's about the size of it. It's no more or less than that. We've had different different families bringing us up, different educations, different life experiences. It is what it is!
I note you used the phrase, "I don't doubt". That's faith, that's hope, FORD707 . I prefer maths, probability and empirical data. Good luck to you, sir.
Yes, I fully appreciate you publicly conceded the two companies are different animals a long time ago. On that point, I agree with you, no worries.
I am not obsessed. However I am most certainly bewildered. I watched the whole Gamestop phenomenon in the US with my jaw dropping to the floor as Joe Public took on and destroyed a US hedge fund. Fascinating, absolutely fascinating. It compelled me to research the power of these digital forums, happy to admit that for sure.
I have this to say to you in response to your post. I put it to you that *you* don't understand the fundamentals of the SN. I don't think there is a snowball's chance in hell that the SN will ever produce a commercial barrel of oil from Yukon/Umiat or Peregrine. If they're able to survive, they ***might*** produce commercial oil from one of the horizons in the Central Blocks.
Question for you. Bearing in mind both BoDs formally accept there's an overlap of horizons at Icewine => shared asset, do you have any idea of the statistical probability the markets will continue to value 10% of that asset at £300m and 90% of that asset at £550m? Any idea?
The answer is nil. If, and to repeat that it is an if, the geology is *exactly* as both companies imagine/wish, then one day soon some hedge fund dude sitting in Connecticut or a fund manager at Blackrock or Fidelity will spot the mispricing and within a few hours/days it'll be sorted. [NB Remember, this scenario is dependent on a success case for both companies.]
It just doesn't work any other way. The maths always comes out in the end. I was always confident it would, as my posting history suggests. However, with PANR raising >$90m in December v's the SN now once again caveating a flow test at Merlin-2 due to financial concerns I'm even more certain. PANR now has the funds to stick around and see through the data discovery at Alkaid/Talitha/Theta West. The SN *might* not be able to.
Direct questions for you, FORD707.
1) If you spoke to Erik on the phone and he told you Yukon had a negative NPV just like his own personal leases next door, would you believe him?
2) If you spoke to the Conoco CEO on the phone and he told you he had the SN over a barrel because any production at Umiat/Peregrine depends ***solely*** on Willow going ahead which will take >$3bn and THEN he has to build a pipeline 20m south to Peregrine and THEN he's the only buyer in town because no other owner is allowed to use the Conoco pipeline....and he finished by saying he's happy to wait for 10 years and buy the leases when the SN hands them back worthless, would you believe him?
It's nothing to do with my delivery. I've used maths, I've written out word for word the exact questions SN shareholders ought to ask their BoD, I've ridiculed posts, I've shown what DW did, I've shown what Erik did and is doing again......you're in a cult-like state I fear.
continued
14) Thu 11:41 Mindbender: cracking quote, genius. His investment record speaks for itself but IMHO he’s also an excellent communicator. Unlike many other geniuses he has the ability to explain sometimes very complicated theories using simple language. Cbaron – I remember being a bit puzzled when I first read that quote of his but when I reflected some more, I found myself nodding in complete agreement. Especially true for a fundamental investor.
15) SeaHawk 11:55 – solely interested in *fact* discovery and the dissemination of the consensus understanding of the *facts* of the PANR investment case. Sadly, all too often that means countering those promulgating misinformation and disinformation.
Good to have a moan on an investors’ forum from time to time, is it? Why shareholders insist on using these public bulletin boards as a substitute for a psychiatrist’s couch is beyond me. I’ve never understood why some choose that option, probably never will. To be clear, nothing wrong with having strong views concerning the *facts* of an investment case, but to moan? Look at GS’s example moaning at “Jay’s silly grin”? Let’s just say GS has some super power that allows him to identify wrong’uns by the shape of their grin. In that case, GS ought to use that knowledge to sell his shares asap before the SP drops. What on earth is the point of moaning on a public forum as a shareholder? All you’re doing is affecting the emotions of other shareholders and demotivating any readers of the forum who may be conducting their DD prior to investing by assessing the mood of the shareholder base? Madness.
Getting jumped over? Cry harder, SeaHawk. You may be happy for others to disseminate misinformation and/or disinformation but I, together with my group of fellow investors, do not. Plus, it is a statement of fact that the Alpha Delta Victor Foxtrot November is by far and away the primary forum in the UK for this particular company, and well you know it. That’s the main reason this forum is far quieter. Fact.
16) maestro1 12:09 – are you referring to the Darcon thread or the Guild on the other place? If so, you’re kidding aren’t you? “Many got blocked.” Factually incorrect. I certainly *wish* more had been blocked but sadly it’s only been a handful. Censorship? Nonsense, utter tosh. To be clear, if someone posted on the thread that he had proof Talitha was not full of 40 degree API crude but full of Irn Bru which allowed me to sell my shares before the SP went to 0p, I’d be massively grateful and would send him a case of wine in gratitude. However, why should shareholders not be robust in the face of often nefarious actors who seek to damage my financial interests by promulgating misinformation or disinformation. Since when did we become so permissive that this is no longer considered poor form? Nope, not for me.
This is the thing Scott.
88 and pantheon are different animals as I conceded a long time ago. Listening to you, understanding, lots of reading and research. However, I do not understand the obsession with proving to people that 88 is a hyped up stock compared to pantheon especially. The people who will or have made money out of 88 understand the fundamentals. The ones that don’t or haven’t made any money don’t understand the fundamentals. I don’t doubt that at some stage they will get oil to the surface. Delivery of an opinion goes a long way in terms of the recipient understanding and listening to it.
GLA
continued 12)
12) Yes, I 100% appreciate SN, complete with its 20k strong, credulous army of unsophisticated OTC stocktwits, makes it a perfect mix of ponzi scheme and stockmarket game of pass the parcel ("when the music stops I won't be the one left holding the shares") but still???? This mispricing is jaw-dropping.
Happy to be fact checked by anyone on the relative merits of both companies and their *fundamental* valuations.
13) Question for Slackbladder2708. If I asked the 20k members of the SN stocktwits forum the following questions, what percentage do you think would answer correctly?
Question 1.
Dear 20k SN stocktwits…..scot126 is going to give each one of you $500 worth of shares in one company. He’ll give you a choice of shares in Company A or shares in Company B. Company A has 750m shares on issue and they are trading at US$1.00 per share. Company B has 14.8bn shares on issue and is trading at US$0.0506.
Would you opt for 500 shares in Company A or 9,881 shares in Company B? Or are you happy with either Company A or Company B shares?
Question 2.
All 20k of you SN stocktwits have received the shares as described above. If you elected to receive Company A shares, you’ve now got 500 of them registered in your name. If you elected to receive Company B shares, you’ve now got 9,881 of them registered in your name. The SPs are still the exact same price as they were in Q1.
Breaking News!!!! Massive moves in the stockmarket today. Fortunes are being made and lost. Company B’s shares are now trading at US$0.0592 and Company A’s shares are now trading at US$1.17. Which group of shareholders is the happier? The owners of 9,881 shares in Company B or the owner of 500 shares in Company A?
I look forward to your response, Blackadder2708. I have a percentage in mind, based on my reading of the stocktwits forum and the SN army’s tweets. I’ll let you answer first and then I’ll reply with my percentage. We’ll compare our answers, for sure, but then I have another question for you.
continued
12) GS, Wed @ 08:19. Ok, we’ll start with a fact check and quick lesson. Had Justin been Bed and ISA’ing a) he wouldn’t have been included in the RNS dated 13/1/22 and b) he or his wife did indeed do a Bed & ISA a year ago, maybe 18 months ago? Spend a couple of minutes looking through the historic RNSs and you’ll be able to see for yourself that it’s described differently from what you witnessed on Tuesday/Wednesday this week. Fact.
As for Justin’s exerci.se and sale of 500k options, here’s what happens. Canaccord sold his 500k shares at, say, 70p = £350k. The 350k is remitted to PANR at which point £150k goes to the PANR bank account (500k x 30p) and £200k goes to PANR’s payroll. In the next payroll run, Justin’s £200k will be taxed at 45%-50% so he’ll be receiving c.£100k. His first options/share sales in 15.5 years and <5% of his total exposure to the company. I have zero issue with that, zero.
Oh, and no, “we” are not all “in both” PANR and the SN. Let me tell you why a fundamental investor, like wot I am, wouldn’t be “in both”.
SN's mkt cap is £330m v's PANR's £550m today. Here's a brief summary why I think this is stupefying.
SN has three main projects: Yukon, Icewine and Peregrine/Umiat.
a) Yukon - SN's Erik Opstad (88E's General Manager of Alaskan Operations) is on record in 2021 (Petroleum News) declaring his personal leases adjacent to 88E's Yukon acreage have a "negative NPV". QED Yukon is worth $0 to SN.
b) Peregrine/Umiat - Umiat has 100mmbo of reserves but is so isolated not one barrel of oil has been produced since it was discovered in the 1940s. The SN paid $1m for it. Let's agree it's still worth $1m.
50% of Peregrine was sold back to 88E in 2021 by a consortium of Alaskan oil veterans (***after*** the results arrived from Merlin-1) for $14m. So let's stipulate Umiat/Peregrine is worth $30m. That's what the company and Alaskan veterans value it at. Who are we to argue?
c) This leaves Project Icewine accounting for a cool c.£300m of market value. April '21 saw SN formally publish its view that certain PANR horizons overlapped into their Central Block leases. FWIW I think they're correct. Looks to Rabito79 and me that the Kuparuk, SFS and maybe some SMD near the Dalton could overlap onto SN's acreage? I think it'll end up being <10% of the recoverable oil across the totality of the combined acreage but, for the purposes of this exercise, let's say SN has 10% by volume, ok? Thus, the market is valuing 10% of the PANR/SN oilfield at £300m on the SN side of the border. Wait, what??? The same stockmarket is valuing PANR's 90% of the PANR/SN oilfield at £550m. So, 10% of the oilfield is worth £300m and, at the exact same time, 90% of the oilfield is worth £550m.
Hmmmm, and double hmmmm.
Something is very wrong here. Either SN is waaaayyyyyy overvalued or PANR is waaaayyyy undervalued (or a combination of both of course).
continued
9) Slackbladder2708 – have you noticed the SN’s guidance has changed again, reverting back to the flow test of Merlin-2 being subject to finance? So it was subject to finance, then it wasn’t, and now it’s back to being subject to finance again? Oh, and did you ever enquire with the SN’s BoD whether they actually had flow testing equipment and personnel lined up at Merlin-1 last year? Hint? They didn’t.
“…at the expense of anyone who listened to him.” Hmmm, my lowest purchase of PANR has been between 7p and 8p. I was then very active and said so when the Kuparuk result was published pre the explanatory April webinar last year so another big line purchased at 18-20p. Firstly, you’re mathematically incorrect. Secondly, I am not providing financial advice to anyone. I am, however, happy to suggest other readers not place any weight on your posts. Thanks for the opportunity to do so again today.
Going back to your phrase about something happening “at the expense” of others. It’s an interesting phrase, isn’t it? I wonder how all those unsophisticated victims (or “marks” to use the correct label?) in the US felt when folk like you profited from last year’s social media hype surrounding the SN, selling at US 8-9c and posting on forums the company had made a discovery? Or that Umiat/Peregrine will be worth even a dollar unless Conoco a) builds out Willow for >$3bn b) builds a pipeline south to Peregrine/Umiat c) decides to offer a penny to 88E in a decade’s time to take Peregrine/Umiat off its hands?
My reply to you, Slackbladder, is as follows. It’s you whose character and morals are in question, not mine. And this season’s big game of pass the parcel (SN version) looks like it’s already begun. It’s me who’s thinking of the tragic victims just about to get spiked by the likes of you. You? All about the Benjamins and stuff morality, eh? Time for *you* to look in the mirror, methinks.
10) Tue 18:45: Factually wrong. That said, I very much appreciate your use of “looks like….to me” rather than the declarative and definitive vocabulary used by too many other posters. h/t
11) Tue 19:45: No. Two things here. The buy/sell data provided to us by the LSE is not fir for purpose. Second, you can’t buck the markets as Mrs T once said memorably. Believe me, if there was more buying power then willing selling volume a SP goes up. If there is more selling power than willing buying volume, a SP goes down. Forget all this market maker nonsense, “holding it down”, etc, etc. If you asked me to keep PANR at, say, 70p for a week, I could do it. But you’d have to give me access to approx. £5m of capital for me to guarantee it. Please, please, please believe me when I promise you that small cap market makers have nowhere near that amount of capital at their disposal for a single AIM stock with a mkt cap of £550m. No chance.
continued
8) Sat 22:00 from Goldstinger “Hi all. It bothers me that everyone shuts up on here, especially when drilling starting. This should be flying. The only reason it’s not? Jays’s silly grin on that video. What ceo does that? What a prat. GS”
And this arch-conspiracy theorist continues to be egged on by a handful of other sentient humans on this forum? Funny old world, Saint. Who even thinks like this? Even worse, who doubles down and thinks it’s appropriate to then publish that outrageous thought on a public investor forum? Direct question to GS. So, rather than Jay Cheatham as a CEO, would you rather have Dave Wall (seller of at least 60% of his holding in the SN since departure) or Erik Opstad? Erik Opstad, the guy whose ELKO company came in a bewildering 130% over budget on Merlin-1, profited massively from the engineered OTC SP spike of March/April ’21, and without so much as a squeak from the prolific posters on the SN’s forum HAS ALREADY STARTED SELLING STOCK IN THE SN IN THE LAST FEW WEEKS!!!! Absolutely incredible that all these hyper-opinionated but tragically unsophisticated shareholders on the other forum allow this outrageously unethical conduct to continue unhindered. Dear oh dear.
I’ll take Jay as CEO, grin or no grin. Also, Jay has not sold one share in 12 years involvement with PANR. Justin just sold <5% of his total exposure after 15.5 years employment by PANR. DW sold >60% as soon as he could….ELKO sold out entirely in 2021…..APDC sold their whole 50% of Peregrine in 2021…..and ELKO HAVE ALREADY STARTED SELLING SHARES THIS YEAR!!!! And you have the gall to talk about a grin??????
Well done Scot. Some stuff in your scribbling that actually reads as truth for a change but more importantly you managed to not upset anyone along the way. I hope it was a New Year resolution to be a nicer person. Good man. Keep it up.
GS
Ps - Fantasy and Challenging conventional thought are NOT the same thing.
Pps - better not to write ‘fact’ after something, if it’s not.
7/10
If I may answer your question Scott.
Missed you? Yes, I probably did.
Thank you for the time as always and as always I respect your views and knowledge of Pantheon. I look forward to the webinar on Monday. Nothing has changed for me, we’re onto something good here.
GLA
continued
6) I apologise if this conclusion has been posted and digested previously. It’s worth noting the fact the Nordic-Calista No.3 rig has moved from the Talitha pad to Theta West *must* mean the temporarily abandoned Talitha #A wellbore is in a condition suitable for the full range of flow testing to occur using the coiled tubing unit. This is a tick in the box of the investment case being further de-risked. Good stuff.
7) Mr Cube – direct answer for you is that the news from each flow test will be published via RNS as and when the company receives the data. There is no plan, repeat no plan, to save up all the flow test results and publish them in one big RNS at the end of the season. 100% the flow tests will be published result by result. Hope that helps.
continued
Any comparison of the flow test data from Talitha #A or Theta West-1 with a production well at Prudhoe Bay is utter madness and should be ignored completely. That would be apples and oranges = nonsensical.
Please listen to the likes of SeaHawk. There’s a world of difference between wells designed for maximum data collection over multiple distinct horizons v’s a production well, and there’s a world of difference between a vertical well and an extended horizontal production well with multi-stage frack.
5) FORD707 – there’s no other reason for the SP not going up since the New Year than that there’s been more sellers than buyers. If you wish more detailed info about market intel, I’d suggest following the forum on Alpha Delta Victor Foxtrot November rather than this one, but that’s your call. Had you been following me on the other place you’d know I was able to confirm the large-ish seller (but non-declarable, ie. <3%) had finished selling as of Tuesday this week. NB This seller is entirely separate from the exercise and sale of employee options. Like FORD707, I too expected a SP appreciation over the first 3 weeks of January but if the selling is larger than the buying, the SP gets weaker. I know the identity of the seller and all I can say is that they know no more about the incoming results from Talitha and TW than any of the readers of this post.
I’ll also metaphorically eat my hat if Farallon hasn’t continued to sell a few shares since the fundraise completed. Put it this way, if a new TR-1 from Farallon dropped on Monday, I wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest. Same with Heights Capital, the convertible bond holders. For those willing to learn, please google “delta hedging of a convertible bond”. You’re all sentient beings but I have dismantled brutally every single one of GS’s avalanche of often contradictory conspiracy theories. Thus, it also wouldn’t surprise me if the US$3m equity component of Heights Capital investment in December had been sold to shadow delta hedge their Dec-Feb Q1 position.
Frustrating? Sure. But this is the price we shareholders *must* accept for a) being fully capitalised to the tune of >$90m and sufficient to fund 3.5 wells and b) the company adopting this method of funding v’s a farm out which instead of dilution of 12% could have seen a 25%, 30%, 49%, 50%, >50% dilution to the asset. All those dilution percentages were discussed and debated as possibilities on forums such as this one over the last 9 months. Fact. In the end, the fundamentals will out via the drillbit. We just require a few more days/weeks patience.