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Of the Gold mining companies sill have very low P/Es whilst their revenues are kicking-up dramatically.
A not unexpected drop in the price of gold over the last couple of days (not just because of Israel/Iran going quiet, but the laws of gravity coming to play) has resulted in some buying opportunities for those who have hedged their bets with physical bullion holdings, and the multiplier of Gold mining shares.
I bought first stock for 23.6 when gold was 1920$/oz and PAF produced only 175koz. Now I think it was stupid investment as price could not reach even 30p at POG=2300$ and production 190koz. However enjoying with really good dividends for several years.
Great end to the day. They said op update soon. We'll see.
Looks like RNS day tomorrow!!
With rising solar power PAF could reduce AISC to
My holding is Messive here as well and I’m well into profit having bought at 13-16p, my view is Mintals is coming online soon, we are making tons of $$ at the moment, dividend will increase, the only way is UP from here not down, even at gold $2000. Once the financials are out , I don’t see this trading at these levels. Not many Goldie’s at this price with PE3. I was tempted to trade as well but too risky of missing out
At an AISC of $1350 even at $2200 they must be racking it in now.
Also a pull back to $2200 will only get people buying more who have been looking for an entry point for weeks now...
There is a possibility of a further pull back to 2075 the break out point of gold but there would be massive buying at that point , I don't think it will get to that level personally.
At $2200 gold, there could be a breakout for PAF above 24p if they increase Ozs ,but probably not if they don't.
So for you PAF will break out above 24 even if the POG retraced to 2200, which was my question.
Btw. My holding is massive, I trade extra in all my large holdings to improve averages. Normal stuff.
With news around the corner and PE of 3 don’t think this will drop much and if it does it will recover pretty quickly, plenty of buying at this level as PAF is due a re-rate. For me it’s too risky to trade PAF.
Hi. All. I've just put in a hopeful buy order at 22.1p for a number of shares I traded twice already in recent weeks without leaving me short of cash. If it kicks in once again I'll be really overweight in PAF. IMO the drop was a bit overdone yesterday on gold miners but chart-wise the base of the recent gap around 23 is still holding up.
Will gold retrace more, say down to $2200 ? Even if it does, what say Pan African put out an update that increases their 180k-190k ounces guidance to 190k-200k. They surely could as now there's only two months left of their year so PAF will have a much better idea within the thousands of ounces.
Would PAF break out above 24 even if gold meandered around 2200 for example ?
Hi Selpec, The Consort Mine is running using contractors, who are no doubt powering on especially with the POG, it was never shut.
https://www.panafricanresources.com/investors/company-presentations/
In the new presentation from April 10th it is mentioned slide 13 "Consort Mine – access to higher grade
areas will improve H2 performance, Work in progress to realise full impact of remedial measures at higher-cost operations (Consort and Sheba Mines)"
From interim results presentation slide 26 "Revise mine plan to access lower grade mining areas on 17 and 37 Levels – will lead to improved performance during H2 FY24".
Contract Mining : https://www.miningmx.com/news/gold/51906-pan-african-restructures-barberton-mines-amid-below-par-half-year-performance/
"Cobus Loots, CEO of Pan African said in the group’s interim operating report today the company had therefore decided to convert Consort Mine to a “contractor mining model” while continuous operations would be implemented at Fairview and Sheba...There would be no job losses as a result of implementing contractor mining at Consort Mine as employees would be transferred to Fairview and Sheba in line with increased shifts – a step that would reduce overtime costs."
There will be an operational update in the coming weeks, with guidance updated which the SP must clearly be indicating that we, the market, expect an increase like you say by 10k oz.
Figures are rather cautious considering market reaction last year. With POG = 2350$, Consort mine in PAF portfolio can be reactivated as profitable again. However it might have implication on average AISC. Actually I don’t know Cobus plans, but there are options to produce 190 - 200k this year if no major issues.
Hi BlueDefender
Yes, earnings or profit before taxes ie. for the gold, revenue minus the AISC.
I am not aware either, however that 180k-190k is PAF's guidance for the year of , so I used the mean of that being 185k.
So either PAF are expecting some sort of closure or lower production whilst works is carried out this half or their guidance is very very cautious.
Just to clarify G-NBC did you mean profits of $76.2m?
Also I think Cobus is low balling the second half production figures so there could well be a revised number.
I am not aware of any major works that need to be done to bring down the H2 to 86500oz from the H1 figure of 98000oz.
Different sector but also have a look at Surgical Innovations, ticker SUN. 100-200% upside. DYOR.
Hi all. Just some thoughts for discussion. CEY's quarterly results were not too good. Stand out figure for me was the average realised gold price of $2062, apparently pulled down by 19k oz out of 92.5k oz sold early in Jan.
For PAF sales, average POG Jan and Feb was around $2000, and March the average is around $2200, which makes $2066 the average over the quarter. So PAF's first quarter average sale price would actually be around the same at CEY's. Perhaps it's a good thing that H2 results for PAF come out in July, hopefully with the gold price sustaining above $2350 to end of June.
An estimate of PAF earnings Jan to March would be ( (Guidance of 185k for H2 - H1 production of 98.5k ) / 2 for the quarter = 43250oz ) x ( POG $2066 - AISC $1325 ) = $32m
For April to June with POG averaging $2350 would mean earnings of $44.3m making total H2 earnings of $76.2m.
Add that to the $42.6m from H1 makes total of $118m for the year, almost double last years $60.7m.
IMO we will be looking at a end of year dividend around 2 cents. 1.6p, which is not too shabby, but the real prize will be Mintails boosting 2025 and 2026 earnings to $150m or even higher and maybe a 2.5p / 3p dividend.
All the metrics here are ludicrously low, including the share price!
Hi BPat890. Good point about the 1/4 reporting from the sector. The bigger players making buoyant news will likely lift all producers and explorers as investors look for bargains within the sector, and given our P/E, PAF would surely be a comparative bargain.
Market sell off providing a clear buying opportunity here and across the sector. The price of gold has strengthened throughout the day and is back around $2,400/oz. Most gold producers are due to report on quarterly progress this month which should offer a glimpse of the increased margins we would expect following a $300-400 per ounce increase in the price of gold over the quarter.
Profits in the last half were $42.4m but net debt increased as a result of heavy investment. With the recent rise in the gold price the company has to be well ahead of internal profit forecasts now with the potential for an increase in the dividend.
All-in sustaining costs were $1,287 last time around and expected to be below $1,350 per ounce this year.
Fairview Mine's 8.75MW solar power commissioning expected by June.
Mogale tailings retreatment (MTR) project expected to reach steady-state production by December (50,000 ounces / annum).
Gold 2390 wonder what our profits are :) once financials are out we are above 30s…
Interesting day(s) ahead.
Chartwise, trend is in place but Gap could be filled with a drop down to 23.1 or support at 23.7.
FTSE is opening 100 points down and we've all seen how PAF can rise and fall with the general market tide.
However gold is still at record highs and PAF are raking it in.
IMO we're for another drift&consolidation before another leg up but I wouldn't bet loads on that.
Here's Gary Savage on market movements, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rN5OwNXXV1o
(He's been correct many many times hence how he has subscribers but saying that, he's still clearly not retired yet and believes in conspiracies due to his maths being poor, go figure)
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Question to investors on the forum. What is the portion of your portfolio in PAF? I try to keep it in the range 25 - 35%.
Gold trading back up to near record high at time of writing ( 8.15pm) - no real surprise, but the dips
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/gold
Seems decent value and bought some today for exposure to rising gold price.