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After the positive trading update in may the sp whet over 2p the following month, market knew we would need cash then on the next positive update (apart from saying they will need to raise by eoy they didnt need to announce this imo) the sp was up on the day and now at these levels! so whats changed...... Nothing! As they say be greedy when others are fearful. Good luck.
They will get there, our day will come, paitence is all that is required. Market is playing games any big contract lands and the sp will go ballistic! every man & his dog will want in when it does. No reason to be at this ridiculous SP!
The same as me when i bought at over 20p per share. I thought they would be going to a £ not a penny
The confidence I had in this company weeks ago is drifting away now. Looks like this will be another investment down the pan. What is going WRONG with this company? They should be pulling in loads of contracts.
For comparison, DarkTrace (DARK) "a global leader in cyber security AI" reported their results: "net ARR added for the year of at least $141.6 million, at most down (1.8)% from FY22 despite the impacts of a challenging macro-economic environment."
This is the CyberSecurity market Osirium is operating in. Plenty of money around. Why can't they get it in the millions and tens of millions?
> Dont forget directors have options at 2p
In 2016 they had options at 187p. In 2020 they had options from 35p+. They've given up on both of those. It needed shareholder pushback to hold them to 2p. (see the RNSs from April). You can see they've had to lower their sights over the years.
> the company must have achieved annualised recurring revenue ("ARR") of at least £3.5 million
How far away is that? 15-24 months? In the first half of 2022 they grew ARR by £160k. In the second half of 2022 5they grew it by £340k. Wow accelerating growth! First half of this year they've grown that by £300k. Boo! Acceleration stopped. The last figure for it was around £1.94M in December, make up your own numbers, if they add ~£300k every six months it will be 2 years to get there, Christmas 2025. If they can accelerate again, it could be 18 months? 15 months?
They need at least one fundraise to cover something like £0.5M-£1.5M expected losses over the next year. Maybe they can make a chunk of that up in non-recurring sales revenue? I haven't paid attention to those numbers.
> Osi is a good growing company unlike many others on the aim market. With cyber attacks on the rise (will only get worse) imo they are in the right position at the right time.
I don't disagree, so ... why aren't they growing faster? When founded in 2008 they were early. In 2016 when they listed that was a great time. Now in 2023 the market's being eaten, BeyondTrust takes $330M/year revenue, Osirium is puttering about with £0.2M of cost cutting and lowering their Director's targets. The sales director whose strategy has been so weak all the years, they just made him CEO. The market isn't standing still, if they keep the growth rate over the next 5 years they'll be an also-ran nobody, they might get bought and shut down just to take the customers and end the competition.
To become a big player they need to STOMP on the sales accelerator and be adding - I dunno - £1.5M ARR by Christmas, £5M next year, £12M the year after, £40M the year after, £100M the year after. Their recent yearly additions were 160k, 300k, 0.4k, 500k, ~600k. There's no hint anywhere that they have what it takes to avoid being an also-ran.
If September interim results say on track for £300k H2 this year or worse, that's a dragged out 24month future to barely breakeven. Weak sell.
If they say on track for £4-600k H2 this year, they got the accelerator going, but it's a fairly slow 1year+ future. Neutral.
If they say much more than that, £750-£1M+ for the second half of this year, STRONG BUY (maybe after any placing).
0.7p a share???? cant see that happening that wouldn't sit well with shareholders at all! The last raise at 2p imo was low enough! Maybe they are looking at an alternative method for the raise who knows? Dont forget directors have options at 2p however sp has to be over 4p for 30 days & the company must have achieved annualised recurring revenue ("ARR") of at least £3.5 million, when reported in the Company's full year or half year results. Both imo will be achieved. Osi is a good growing company unlike many others on the aim market. With cyber attacks on the rise (will only get worse) imo they are in the right position at the right time.
> "I don't think it will work with financing the current management on AIM, clearly it isnt working. Having been here for about 3 years, (I recall the 6p placing, then the 3p, then the 2p), I have not seen any noticeable difference in strategy during that time"
They think their strategy is working; look how many RNSs mention 'land and expand' for years, e.g.:
- "We are delighted to secure this new customer in the legal sector and a further 'land and expand' licensing deployment. " (November 2017)
- "Over the time of our engagement, the Customer has also adopted our PPA capability, demonstrating the potential of our 'land and expand' strategy" (August 2022).
> "I don't think another small placing will solve the fundamental issues here"
At the rate of annual recurring revenue growth, it feels like a £2M raise (triple the shares in issue) and 2 years has a good chance of seeing them (barely) profitable. And like a £1M raise (double the shares in issue) probably won't.
140M shares in issue and 0.7p/share by Christmas, and a need to raise again in mid 2024, anyone?
I've read back through RNSs. Current CEO was at Bomgar (now BeyondTrust which sells PAM software, Est. $330M/year). Chairman, Sales Director and CTO were senior at MIMEsweeper, sold for $1Bn after 5 years. I guess they thought they could do that again and get rich quick? Osirium founded 2008 [Sir Ian, Sir Ian, Sir Ian] AIM listed 2016.
RNS highlights:
- 2016 April listing 10M shares at 175p, raised £5.1M, share price tips 200p, £17M market cap.
- 2016 July "strong and growing pipeline of new customer prospects, significant contracts in sight for 2016". Total revenue £162K.
- 2017 January "Revenue growth slower than expected, investment in core functions slower than expected".
- 2017 May results, appointed 4x Directors. Total revenue £477k. Share price lows of 93p.
- 2018 March placing 3M shares @ 134p, Chairman buys. Total 13M shares.
- 2018 April results, appointed 2x Directors. Total revenue £647k. [quiet year].
- 2019 April, share price drops off cliff?
- 2019 May results, total revenue £957K.
- 2019 October placing 7M shares at 34p, Directors buy in, £2.7M convertible loan notes for 2024 at 40p (lol). Total shares 19M.
- 2020 May results total revenue £1.17M. Share price 25p.
- 2021 April placing 9.5M to raise £2M, directors buy in. Total shares 29M.
- 2021 June results total revenue £1.43M.
- 2022 Feb, placing ~16M shares at 6p to raise £1M. Talk of $21Bn market opportunity. Total shares 34M.
- 2022 April results total revenue £1.47M. Almost same as last year? All those ~ business development directors ~ doing what?
- 2022 November placing 63M shares at 2p, raising £1.5M and 12.7M shares sold to Directors.
- Total shares in issue vague, ~95M + 20-30M of options/grants/convertible loan notes makes up LSE reported 122M shares, I think?
- 2023 March results total revenue £1.92M. Share price 2p.
- 2023 July share price 1.25p. £1.5M market cap.
In between those are contract wins, expansions, renewals, record growth and contract sizes, new industries, enormous opportunities, confidence in their strategy, record boot production, and always being at war with EastAsia.
They've lost thirteen million quid in five years but only now doing 'cost saving' measures?? Enough placings that IPO investors need 140x share price to get money back. What is the future, November placing 150M shares, March results £2.6M revenue, placing 300M shares, £3.8M revenue, placing 600M shares, £5M revenue and profitable, placing 1Bn shares to fund R&D because it's 2027 and everyone who wants PAM software has it by then? Sales Director who "saw 600% growth" at Bomgar was overconfident?
But they took revenue from £162K to £2M (12x), built sales networks, gained customers, new products, directors keep buying in, years of slow growth - but consistent - and they're levelling off the nosedive. Is it possible they can pull up into rapid growth? One more placing, 2x revenue to £4M and stop losing money by June 2024, >2x to £10M
Last time they did a raise, they said they had identified £1M cost saving measures. Last update they said this had been fully implemented. I was not impressed to see that they have now identified further cost savings. Was it not done properly last time?
I would like to see them put themselves up for sale. Let a business with some synergies and extra cash take over the reins. Especially if this was a bolt on for the buyer, then a lot of the management and admin expenses would be greatly reduced. I wonder if the 2p options might have something to do with that?
With Intangible assets of £3.5M and no hard assets to speak off. 122.55M shares buy out would look like:
2.2p = £2.7M
2.3p = £2.8M
2.4p = £2.9M
2.5p = £ 3M
Add on £2M for working capital and debt reduction.
£5M buys you a functioning company with ARR of circa £2M, that with the right management and synergies could trim the opex down a lot more. This would afford another 18 months to grow revenue and profitability for the buyer. The next decade would probably be very lucrative. I dont think it will work with financing the current management on AIM, clearly it isnt working. Having been here for about 3 years, (I recall the 6p placing, then the 3p, then the 2p), I have not seen any noticeable difference in strategy during that time - or performance. Going private would also save the costs associated with AIM. I am holding on to my shares in the hope that this is the scenario (or the pump and dump crew hit it one more time). I don't think another small placing will solve the fundamental issues here, but I do think there is a viable business that could be salvaged under the right circumstances.
Clearly the company cannot sustain a workforce of 50 people, on current cash flow.
Reduce staff by 20%.
The Company will be required to raise additional capital before the end of the year & are exploring all options in this regard. The Company has also identified additional cost saving measures which are being implemented..... Mmmmmmmm i wonder what the options the conpany is looking at in regards to the raise...... lets hope its benefits shareholders! also the cost saving measures will help so thats a positive. Either way the sp is a joke at this price. I feel sorry for people like alan who got in at around 20-22 pence! Come on osi dont let us down.
They have stated in the RNS will need to raise by end of year, imo i expect them to do it after the interim results in September 2023.
1
Market playing games here! Down this much on a £700 sell absolute joke! We had a positive RNS its not like the market didnt know they needed more cash yet a few weeks ago we were hovering around under 2p.... Come on osi give us some good news anything to stop this decline, cant be a raise at this silly price!
It is not quite my worst decision but not far off. I bought in at i think 20p if not 22p
It looks like a bit of a clanger at the moment
Why did I buy this load of dogs Shiet worst performer by a mile
Might dump it and put in Ondo
Perhaps OSI could apply for some government export credit loans. Don’t see why not, the new Chinese owners of Wolves? Just applied and got £80mn.
Interesting post, been interested in the technical side and how it stacks up. One thing I will say is that they also use channel partners to sell. Im not sure how many in house sales people they have after the recent cost saving measures.
Our marketing strategy in 2023 will continue to focus on digital and in-person marketing to drive up the volume and quality of new customer leads. There will be an increased focus on joint marketing activities with sales partners, reinforcing the "channel-first" approach.
We collaborate with our global network of partners to provide them with the tools and knowledge necessary to sell our products into their local networks. This approach provides Osirium with a broad reach beyond its direct sales arm via a collection of experienced sales professionals across five continents. Over the course of the year, we have continued to fortify our partner and reseller network globally.
I'm puzzled; revenue now ~£2m/year, losses £3M/year. Latest RNS says 34% ARR increase or £0.5M. Five more years of that to break even? Funded by raises and dilution? Then again the March 2018 RNS crows about "The sales team comprises four direct sales people, three pre-sales people and two sales consultants". Breakeven is only another £3M in sales, how come NINE FULL TIME SALES PEOPLE haven't been able to do that in five years?
Google "Osirium site:reddit.com" there's maybe three mentions of them. I spend too much time on technical Reddits, there's ones for vendors like CyberArk and FortiGate, and like r/MSP (Managed Service Providers) where 140k subscribers discuss password vaults and endpoint security and account management tools. Osirium are completely absent. No employees there raising awareness. They didn't bother to register r/Osirium (taken last October by some Anime thing). Outside Reddit, Veeam hosts their own forum anyone can sign up to where employees respond as well. Osirium support portal has a 'contact us' email form to request an account.
The March 2018 RNS says "The marketing team is also up to full strength and is building [...] Osirium's internet presence" - you can find their marketing team on Glassdoor saying how nice the company is to work for and how easy the marketing job interviews are. Not out marketing to people like me who have been on the technical side of managing privileged accounts and cleaning up after ransomware? Why not?
I've watched some of their YouTube videos[1] and their products look decent, decent technical skill gone in taking away Admin rights on Windows and selectively allowing it, in the servers being clusterable; the web interface looks clean and pleasant. SoftwareReviews giving them gold stars on ease of use and support? OK say I want to give them money - no prices on their website. Try and get Osirium PAM from their website, I can "Get PAM for Free" the express version, but can't buy the full version? Want Osirium Automation, you can "get in touch" by filling out a contact form. That's a dealbreaker for so many people who might buy a license key on a company credit card but don't want to talk to a sales team. Have they not learned the lessons of the cloud providers and take advantage of shadow IT spend?
Osirium has 50 employees, so 20% are sales and marketing and they got to "we tried tweeting 3 adverts a day, and now we're all out of ideas"?
Forget selling coals to Newcastle, they can't seem to sell Guinness in Dublin and they barely seem to be trying; what am I missing? Is their software secretly rubbish? Any reason to think they can go £2M -> £5M ARR and profitable in another year if they could only add +£0.5M last year?
[1] (if less polished than amateur YouTubers)
In 2016 this touched 199p/share with 10.3M shares in issue. Now it has 122M shares in issue, over 90% dilution. Ouch.
Last placing was in November 2022, 72 million shares at 2p raised £1.2M and lasted ~9 months.
Now they anticipate more fund raising, another 70M shares for £1M perhaps?
Choice quote from the March 2018 placing RNS:
> "Gartner estimate that cyber-security spending was $89bn in 2017, growing at 8% per annum. Privileged Access Management (PAM) is emerging as one of the fastest growing markets within the wider cyber-security market and is expected to grow at 27% p.a. to $2.3bn by 2020 by which time it will represent 2% of all cyber-security spending. This anticipated growth will be supported by significant opportunities in the mid-market space."
What happened?
Continued growth year on year looking good long term, Osirium has continued to grow within its target sectors in the first half, with over 20 new customers signed so far in the year including the uk healthcare sector! Remember this is just the first half lots more to come yet, good luck all.
Bookings growth year on year of 4% is too low. The route to being cash flow positive is being achieved, but at a slow pace.
The gold medal award is a positive , hopefully encouraging new clients,. A £2m fund raise is probably doable, unfortunately dilutive to existing holders. This company could do with some direct government loans; being in such a critical sector.
Nice on track RNS
Back to the base
This should get Government level funding as NHS will get more cyber attacks if security is not taken seriously.
OSIRIUM ALREADY HAS FEW TRUST WHO USES OSI TECH.
more to follow certainly