The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
IRB Progress:
OSB Group has strengthened its compliance with the IRB requirements and has reflected upon the PRAs feedback to the industry. The Group continues to engage with the regulator ahead of commencing the formal application process. Underlying IRB capabilities and disciplines have become progressively more integrated into the Group’s business planning, risk, capital, IT and data management disciplines. In particular, enhanced IRB capabilities have played a vital role in informing and shaping the Group’s response to the rising costs of living and borrowing.
While PAG may be the first to get IRB, OSB may be next. MTRO expected last year but was delayed to maybe this year? Could OSB be ahead?
IRB will increase specialist lenders valuation as it will make them more competitive
OSB IRB:
OSB Group has strengthened its compliance with the IRB requirements and has reflected upon the PRAs feedback to the industry. The Group continues to engage with the regulator ahead of commencing the formal application process. Underlying IRB capabilities and disciplines have become progressively more integrated into the Group’s business planning, risk, capital, IT and data management disciplines. In particular, enhanced IRB capabilities have played a vital role in informing and shaping the Group’s response to the rising costs of living and borrowing.
Undervalued stock. OSB valuation could increase along with Paragon as PAG may get AIRB this year, expectation is H1.
Time for specialist lenders
Interest rates will not return to near zero. imo we’ll see a new normal with healthy inflation and rate. This is good for specialist lenders
The trend is starting to look good for specialist lenders
With a dividend of 21.8p incoming (circa 8% & ex divi date of 4th April) I am amazed this is still wallowing after the massive sp drop. It seems to me this was well oversold and likely to rise. OH and a buyback going on too - demonstrating a company that value their shareholders.
Indeed and they were picked up by a content buyer.
Someone has just offloaded £2 million worth of shares at 366p.
The cheaper the stock the better for shareholders as buybacks continue
RNS. Share buybacks
Share buybacks. it makes sense for specialist lenders OSB, PAG, MTRO
That is one huge UT… £16M
It would not be very surprising to see OSB get taken over by one of the big UK or foreign banks
A decent premium would obviously be needed so the price would probably have to be over £6
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1042744/osb-and-metro-bank-in-spotlight-after-virgin-takeover-1042744.html
Obviously oversold yesterday, nice 17% rebound from bottom
I totally agree with that, I had the same nonsense with AV., where it had no effect on anything except an earnings per share stat and made no difference to the SP whatsoever. Gimme the money.
An example - a good read:
https://www.fool.co.uk/2023/12/01/a-bp-case-study-time-to-end-ftse-100-share-buybacks/
Are you on the correct board? This ain't no AIM stock!
I've pledged never to invest in an AIM stock again. Generally too volatile. This company appears well run, but in today's climate, and the prospect of a labour government, not to mention Gove's meddling in a complex market he doesn't understand, the risks are too high for me. On that basis, as Theo would say 'I'm out and won't be investing' !
I've got 25k at 513p, whoever comes in can have them for a fiver each. It's been a well managed company I feel but has been unlucky once too often for me. And could the financial directors leaving have anything to do with spooking a fragile mkt?
EPS is now forecast to fall to 85-90p down from previous forecasts of 107p. It's a big down grade but it still leaves this on a forward p/e of 4.2-4.5. That's too cheap, especially given the monster divi and buybacks. I think this will head back up.
These figures are flat, as expected, and not tragic. One of the major brokers went in there just 3 weeks ago, presumably on a rigorous exercise and not just to have a light lunch and came out upping his forecast from 650p to 700p. We're they kidding him or him us?
So basic eps of 106p excluding the interest rate adjustment gives a PE of 3.5
Dividend of 32p gives a yield near 9%
This will probably get taken over soon by Nationwide or one of the big banks at somewhere over £6
........and all the way back to Sep23
Net Interest Margin is obviously the Massive Negative. 2023 underlying NIM would have been 3.14% without the EIR adj - however with it, it has reduced to 2.51%. Therefore am shocked that OSB is forecasting 2.51% for 2024 - would have expected it to be back to approx 3.14% again